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COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Old 03-21-20, 10:28 AM
  #226  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

^^ Agree

Obviously mortality of a disease is an important number especially for health care professionals. But I think the biggest current issue with Covid-19 is how many get infected, and how many of those get sick enough to need medical care (especially ICU support and above) and whether that need exceeds capacity?

That has been an immediate concern for the US for several weeks, based on what we see happening in Italy and Spain, and that's why we are taking these lock-down actions which are enormously costly and damaging to people's livelihood. What's driving those actions is not that mortality is 3.5% or 1.0%, but what % of the population will need an ICU bed. In a few months, we'll know for sure mortality rate in the US but to me it's not on our to-do list now.
Old 03-21-20, 10:36 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
Question for bruceames: The State Shelter-in-Place order doesn't seem to exempt construction work, while the earlier San Francisco Area order did. Have you been told which order supersedes?
Apparently the new statewide shelter in place does now include housing construction, but I'm not sure if that would mean just existing remodels that are ongoing, new residential housing construction, apartment/condo, or new commercial. I own a small door and window shop where we also fabricate doors and windows. My door and lumber suppliers have told me that they are allowed to continue with deliveries, which they say are a part of essential infrastructure. Hopefully there will be more clarity next week, but I do know several contractors were told to shut down in towns where they were working on houses on Friday. It would make sense in a way that, with the shelter in place and so many people at home, that the last thing they want is to hear construction noise all day.
Old 03-21-20, 10:40 AM
  #228  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Getting back to what I said about Germanys lower death rate and low prevalence : that is almost certainly correlated. Fewer people in the ICU with more available ventilators for the truly sick led to a far lower death rate than in countries like Italy where the hospital system got overwhelmed. Makes total sense. Moore reason to take this very seriously.
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Old 03-21-20, 10:44 AM
  #229  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Situation in Italy:




Old 03-21-20, 10:45 AM
  #230  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
Getting back to what I said about Germanys lower death rate and low prevalence : that is almost certainly correlated. Fewer people in the ICU with more available ventilators for the truly sick led to a far lower death rate than in countries like Italy where the hospital system got overwhelmed. Makes total sense. Moore reason to take this very seriously.
Good point.
Old 03-21-20, 10:50 AM
  #231  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Apparently the new statewide shelter in place does now include housing construction, but I'm not sure if that would mean just existing remodels that are ongoing, new residential housing construction, apartment/condo, or new commercial. I own a small door and window shop where we also fabricate doors and windows. My door and lumber suppliers have told me that they are allowed to continue with deliveries, which they say are a part of essential infrastructure. Hopefully there will be more clarity next week, but I do know several contractors were told to shut down in towns where they were working on houses on Friday. It would make sense in a way that, with the shelter in place and so many people at home, that the last thing they want is to hear construction noise all day.
Thanks. Hang in there. My company is very strict with employee access to the office, even if they are willing to go in at their own risk. It's not just for safety reasons, but it's the idea that this lock-down is a collective action we must all take to reduce the spread.
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Old 03-21-20, 12:06 PM
  #232  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Norm de Plume View Post
Anyone else have lineups of thoughtless assholes who just had no choice but to get their hands on some new video game the moment it was released?

https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/20...-game-release/

GameStop is ESSENTIAL!!!!! [sarcasm, just in case]

Last edited by Abob Teff; 03-21-20 at 12:21 PM.
Old 03-21-20, 12:16 PM
  #233  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
Spainís mortality rate is 4% and Italyís is 8%, both with more cases documented than in Germany. Talk about picking and choosing your data.
Antarctica's death rate is ZERO. And that's a whole continent.
Old 03-21-20, 12:20 PM
  #234  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Apparently the new statewide shelter in place does now include housing construction, but I'm not sure if that would mean just existing remodels that are ongoing, new residential housing construction, apartment/condo, or new commercial. I own a small door and window shop where we also fabricate doors and windows. My door and lumber suppliers have told me that they are allowed to continue with deliveries, which they say are a part of essential infrastructure. Hopefully there will be more clarity next week, but I do know several contractors were told to shut down in towns where they were working on houses on Friday. It would make sense in a way that, with the shelter in place and so many people at home, that the last thing they want is to hear construction noise all day.
Why is this so hard?

Essential = somebody will die if this job is not performed.

Non-essential = EVERYTHING else.

Inconvenient is NOT essential. Uncomfortable is NOT essential. ďIím not getting paidĒ is NOT essential.
Old 03-21-20, 12:32 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Abob Teff View Post
Why is this so hard?

Essential = somebody will die if this job is not performed.

Non-essential = EVERYTHING else.

Inconvenient is NOT essential. Uncomfortable is NOT essential. ďIím not getting paidĒ is NOT essential.
How about banking?
Old 03-21-20, 12:35 PM
  #236  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by B5Erik View Post
How about banking?
Some banks, like mine, have video banking with a live remote teller. I never used it because I just need an ATM and the bak app.
Old 03-21-20, 12:39 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Abob Teff View Post
Why is this so hard?

Essential = somebody will die if this job is not performed.

Non-essential = EVERYTHING else.

Inconvenient is NOT essential. Uncomfortable is NOT essential. “I’m not getting paid” is NOT essential.
I would prefer use the government's definition of essential, rather than some condescending random internet individual. If you don't mind.
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Old 03-21-20, 12:43 PM
  #238  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
Getting back to what I said about Germanys lower death rate and low prevalence : that is almost certainly correlated. Fewer people in the ICU with more available ventilators for the truly sick led to a far lower death rate than in countries like Italy where the hospital system got overwhelmed. Makes total sense. Moore reason to take this very seriously.
In Italy, it was the lack of isolation in the first place which THEN overwhelmed their medical system.

Per Italy's own website:

The top three causes, ischemic heart diseases (75,098 deaths), cerebrovascular diseases (61,255 deaths) and other heart diseases (48,384) accounted for 30% of all deaths in 2012. The malignant neoplasm (cancer) of trachea, bronchus and lung ranked fourth (33,538) as the top cause of cancer deaths in Italy. Moreover it was the second leading cause in men.
https://www.istat.it/en/archive/140877

That's just for 2012. And contrary to some belief ("Hey, they drink a lot of wine!"), they don't appear to be that healthy.

But the biggest reason for Italy's high mortality...just a little late on the isolation mandate.

There are multiple problems with Italy. One is that somewhere, the quarantine system that they put in place came a little late and a lot more people got the infection. Second, it is a country with one of the highest percentage of the elderly. Third, because the surge and the peak happened so rapidly, the healthcare system got overwhelmed. So they are having to make the difficult choice of not providing ventilators to a subset of patients who they think have a less chance — which is a terrible thing to happen. - Dr Sumit Ray, critical care specialist in Delhi NCR
"less chance" is probably meaning less chance of dying. Doctors are having to decide which patients would benefit from medical attention...and which ones won't and will not receive additional life-saving resources.
Old 03-21-20, 12:58 PM
  #239  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Abob Teff View Post
Why is this so hard?

Essential = somebody will die if this job is not performed.

Non-essential = EVERYTHING else.

Inconvenient is NOT essential. Uncomfortable is NOT essential. ďIím not getting paidĒ is NOT essential.
The earlier County and later State orders listed categories of essential services and workers, and exemptions, but they were not identical, so there is a question of what are the differences and which order supersedes. It's not something you look up in Webster.

Banking is seen as essential. At least in the first two days, banks were open, not just ATM machines.
Old 03-21-20, 01:17 PM
  #240  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

I think everyone can agree that we will not be able to get a grasp of the full extent of the pandemic for years, and maybe even decades later. Using any numbers can be inherently misguided when we donít have any test kits available and are actively turning away people with symptoms from being tested.
Old 03-21-20, 01:21 PM
  #241  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

I've been thinking about our philosophy of preparedness.

When I was a kid, my father showed me a Boy Scouts manual from the late 1940s. I remember it telling you not to dive from a sinking ship, but to jump feet first. When I was twelve, I was told that when I'm in water covered with burning gasoline the way to keep from being burned was to fan your arms to wash the gasoline away. That was solid information. I haven't heard anything like that for decades.

In my annual First Aid training, we're taught to call 911, compress the wound to stop the bleeding, and wait for the experts to take care of everything.

So what is the general population supposed to do when the emergency system is overwhelmed and no one sends an ambulance?

Which brings me to another thought. Have you noticed that when you go to the store, you always have to wait in line to check out, no matter how busy or slow they are? It's designed that way. Hospitals are designed the same way. If you go to an emergency room, you'll see gurneys in the hallways holding people waiting for beds, and chairs in the hallways full of people waiting for gurneys. Hospitals only have enough capacity for the daily load of cases. If there is a forest fire in one town, the injured are flown to hospitals all over the region, because hospitals can only handle a few cases above the normal load.

So what is the general population supposed to do when the hospitals are turning patients away?
Old 03-21-20, 01:57 PM
  #242  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Czech company Prusa (3D printers) uses the biggest 3D printer farm in the world to produce medical gear. They developed a face shield prototype in 3 days which is now being tested locally. They could produce as much as 8000/day. They will of course make the design available to anyone. If you own a 3D printer, join a 3D printing group.

How prusa is using the world's largest 3D-printing farm to produce medical gear.




https://www.designboom.com/technolog...us-03-20-2020/
Old 03-21-20, 01:57 PM
  #243  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Nick Danger View Post
So what is the general population supposed to do when the hospitals are turning patients away?
6 Insane DIY Surgeries You Won't Believe Actually Worked
Old 03-21-20, 04:27 PM
  #244  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I would prefer use the government's definition of essential, rather than some condescending random internet individual. If you don't mind.
I don’t mind. In fact, I would love it if government would step up and provide it. Beyond that, we’ll have to take this to the Political forum. Edit: political comments posted over there.

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Old 03-21-20, 04:34 PM
  #245  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Nick Danger View Post
So what is the general population supposed to do when the hospitals are turning patients away?
I haven't heard of hospitals and doctors turning patients away even in tough situations like Wuhan during the peak of their outbreak and Italy now. They may have to prioritize ICU space, ventilators and their time but that's a decision best left to them. I am sure there is a lot of dynamic mental calculations they make but it's easier to decide if a patient is in front of them, instead of at home waiting to come in.

I think the best thing is for people to avoid the need for medical help in the first place, Stay away from potential infection sources including people who appear OK, because we know now that some people are accidental virus carriers. Just think of the folks who got ill at the retirement home in Seattle. They likely never went far from their home, but a visitor (family or friend) or staff member brought the virus to them unknowingly. It was not the obviously risky situation that exposed them.
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Old 03-21-20, 04:48 PM
  #246  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
The earlier County and later State orders listed categories of essential services and workers, and exemptions, but they were not identical, so there is a question of what are the differences and which order supersedes. It's not something you look up in Webster.

Banking is seen as essential. At least in the first two days, banks were open, not just ATM machines.
edit to correct: The Illinois order does not. Car dealerships are still open. Essential? The service department possibly. But my brother is at work hoping somebody comes in to buy a car today.

I did run into Menards yesterday to grab a couple of things to work on some home improvement projects during this (no, not essential in my opinion) ... according to the cashier they are essential and will stay open. GameStop says they are essential and will stay open. A guy on the radio said he sells used tires which is essential, so he will stay open. Daycares have remained open the whole time (to much criticism), but now will be required to have special licensing.

Unfortunately every government directive has to be followed by the next, more severe step. Why? Because we (as a collective) have no real clue as to what is essential and what is “nice”. We have become a society that doesn’t see the bigger picture.

Last edited by Abob Teff; 03-21-20 at 05:36 PM.
Old 03-21-20, 04:53 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
I think the best thing is for people to avoid the need for medical help in the first place, Stay away from potential infection sources including people who appear OK, because we know now that some people are accidental virus carriers. Just think of the folks who got ill at the retirement home in Seattle. They likely never went far from their home, but a visitor (family or friend) or staff member brought the virus to them unknowingly. It was not the obviously risky situation that exposed them.
I think people are doing that ... as I said my wife works at one hospital here and my daughter works at the other. Both have unusually low populations right now. I asked if they were trying to get people out quicker to save capacity; both said no, people just arenít coming in. That is also concerning.
Old 03-21-20, 05:23 PM
  #248  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Abob Teff View Post
I think people are doing that ... as I said my wife works at one hospital here and my daughter works at the other. Both have unusually low populations right now. I asked if they were trying to get people out quicker to save capacity; both said no, people just arenít coming in. That is also concerning.
That's how my friend is describing her hospital as well. They're keeping census low in preparation for the expected onslaught (so no elective procedures etc.)
Old 03-21-20, 05:32 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

A 95 y/o woman in Fadano (Modena) has been cured from COVID-19 in Italy, becoming the pride of a hospital.



https://www.le-lorrain.fr/blog/2020/03/21/une-dame-de-95-ans-vient-detre-guerie-du-covid19-en-italie/?

P.S. A 97 y/o man in Lombardie has also been cured.
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Old 03-21-20, 05:34 PM
  #250  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Some correction to my statement on “essential”. The Illinois order does contain broad definitions ...

https://www2.illinois.gov/Documents/...er-2020-10.pdf

Broad enough that Best Buy is essential ... and what GameStop’s claim in based on.

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