Go Back  DVD Talk Forum > General Discussions > Other Talk
Reload this Page >

Stock Market Meltdown

Other Talk "Otterville" plus Religion/Politics

Stock Market Meltdown

Old 03-24-20, 03:36 PM
  #126  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,771
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

While it fills me with joy, considering my age, that after today I'm only under 10% down, the stock market yoyo ain't over.
Old 03-25-20, 08:23 AM
  #127  
Moderator
 
nemein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: 1bit away from total disaster
Posts: 34,198
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by eXcentris View Post
While it fills me with joy, considering my age, that after today I'm only under 10% down, the stock market yoyo ain't over.
Yep. I've shifted some money around but still sitting on a lot of cash for the moment. There's going to be a bit of a stimulus package uptick, but unless people really do start going back to work soon and these "stay home" recommendations are lifted, it is all just as likely to drop again. Personally I'm waiting for a proven treatment plan, then I'll probably reinvest in earnest.
Old 03-25-20, 12:02 PM
  #128  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,771
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by nemein View Post
Yep. I've shifted some money around but still sitting on a lot of cash for the moment. There's going to be a bit of a stimulus package uptick, but unless people really do start going back to work soon and these "stay home" recommendations are lifted, it is all just as likely to drop again. Personally I'm waiting for a proven treatment plan, then I'll probably reinvest in earnest.
Yup, same here. I'm too old to take risks. I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and wait for this virus thing to be over. As you implied, consumer spending is the engine of the economy. And that ain't gonna pick up until people go back to work, and even then it will take a while for the unemployment % to go back down. Millions of people lost their jobs.
Old 03-25-20, 12:15 PM
  #129  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DVD Polizei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 53,138
Received 76 Likes on 57 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by nemein View Post
Yep. I've shifted some money around but still sitting on a lot of cash for the moment. There's going to be a bit of a stimulus package uptick, but unless people really do start going back to work soon and these "stay home" recommendations are lifted, it is all just as likely to drop again. Personally I'm waiting for a proven treatment plan, then I'll probably reinvest in earnest.
I'd bet if you correlate stock gradually coming back in grocery stores...to the stock market increases...they'll be the same. In other words, people see stocked shelves again, things get back to normal, people come out of their caves, etc.
Old 04-14-20, 06:17 PM
  #130  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
JTH182's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 5,353
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

So what are everybody's feelings now? The market has bounced back a bit, but I'm taking my profits and waiting again. I think people are underestimating how much the shit is still going to hit the fan.
Old 04-14-20, 07:36 PM
  #131  
Admin-MemeCat
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Caught between the moon and NYC
Posts: 32,571
Received 89 Likes on 53 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by JTH182 View Post
So what are everybody's feelings now? The market has bounced back a bit, but I'm taking my profits and waiting again. I think people are underestimating how much the shit is still going to hit the fan.
It's too early to tell what is going to happen. When things open back up I expect a bump for the market, but if "the new normal" is empty sports games, movies, no big gatherings, travel, etc. it will take a long time before we see market numbers anywhere close to where we were.
Old 04-14-20, 07:37 PM
  #132  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: St Louis, MO
Posts: 6,857
Received 34 Likes on 25 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by JTH182 View Post
So what are everybody's feelings now? The market has bounced back a bit, but I'm taking my profits and waiting again. I think people are underestimating how much the shit is still going to hit the fan.
I'm still taking the long view. Even with the drop that has occurred, I'm still at something like a 5% annualized return since 2017. Obviously under normal circumstances that would be higher, but looking at it that way is less troubling than looking at how much my dollar value has dropped in the last couple months.
Old 04-14-20, 07:42 PM
  #133  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,771
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

I'm lucky enough to be back where I was before the shit hit the fan but my RRSP (401k) is still all cash. I've been "playing" a bit with my Canadian dividend stocks portfolio and bought a couple of healthcare stocks and Corby Distilleries stock. I don't drink but I'm sure a heck of a lot of folks are drinking now.
Old 05-26-20, 10:38 AM
  #134  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,771
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Hey, I'm stuck at home and I'm bored... wait... I'll become an investor!

Quarantined investors create ‘perfect storm of stupid’

Almost 800,000 bored Americans have opened online trading accounts in what Business Insider’s Linette Lopez describes as ‘a perfect storm of stupid.’

Ms. Lopez points to trading activity in pharmaceutical developer Moderna Inc. as proof that these newbie traders don’t know what they’re doing. On May 18, Moderna’s stock jumped 26 per cent on news that the company’s coronavirus treatment had produced successful results.

In the following days, however, it was noted that the drug trial was far less encouraging than the initial information release implied and the stock fell back ten per cent. “No one did their homework, and no one has since apologized”, writes Ms. Lopez, and adds, “ I have an extremely active subconscious, and I could not have dreamt of a more perfect condition for separating investors from their money if I tried.”

Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Snider has also noted the trend in higher stock trading. In a May 21 report, Mr. Snider charted the sharp jump in S&P 500 equity positions at U.S. online trading firm Robinhood Markets Inc. The number of positions surged from just over four million when the market bottomed in late March, to the current 12 million.

The new traders that aren’t buying and selling ETFs are almost certainly focused on the obvious individual names with strong price momentum like Amazon.com, Facebook Inc., Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp. and video game developers like Activision Blizzard.

This is all, of course, a recipe for disaster but market history teaches us not to try and time any kind of market top. The self-fulfilling prophecy of new money pushing stock higher, and attracting even more investment assets to a select group of companies or trading strategies can go on for a long time.

The one thing investors can expect from this trend is higher volatility – first upwards, then down – from the S&P 500’s most popular stocks, and likely also for the benchmark as a whole.

-- Scott Barlow, Globe and Mail market strategist
Old 05-26-20, 11:09 AM
  #135  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DVD Polizei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 53,138
Received 76 Likes on 57 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

It was always a storm of stupid. It's just now, the previous traders have people to BLAME.
Old 05-26-20, 11:40 AM
  #136  
Admin-MemeCat
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Caught between the moon and NYC
Posts: 32,571
Received 89 Likes on 53 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

After the recent surge in the markets I did a small rebalance to add about 5% to bonds, and I invested in more blue chip stocks, but I haven't made any drastic changes. I'm still in for the long haul.
Old 05-26-20, 12:29 PM
  #137  
DVD Talk Ruler
 
General Zod's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Santa Clarita, CA
Posts: 21,879
Received 55 Likes on 44 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post
After the recent surge in the markets I did a small rebalance to add about 5% to bonds, and I invested in more blue chip stocks, but I haven't made any drastic changes. I'm still in for the long haul.
Same. I moved into a SLIGHTLY more risky portfolio back when the market was at about 22k. Of course my financial advisor thought I should risk more since the general feeling from them was that the market had hit bottom in the reaction to this but at the time nobody really knew and the daily prognostications from the "experts" were that the market was about to crash and burn any minute day over day. So I thought I was taking a risk as it was.
Old 05-26-20, 02:27 PM
  #138  
Admin-MemeCat
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Caught between the moon and NYC
Posts: 32,571
Received 89 Likes on 53 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by General Zod View Post
Same. I moved into a SLIGHTLY more risky portfolio back when the market was at about 22k. Of course my financial advisor thought I should risk more since the general feeling from them was that the market had hit bottom in the reaction to this but at the time nobody really knew and the daily prognostications from the "experts" were that the market was about to crash and burn any minute day over day. So I thought I was taking a risk as it was.
For me, the riskier options I had did NOT do well in the recent market bounce back. It was the Blue Chips that did better. Maybe my 401k's just cffer crap mid cap and small cap options.
Old 05-26-20, 02:48 PM
  #139  
X
Administrator
 
X's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1987
Location: AA-
Posts: 10,790
Likes: 0
Received 13 Likes on 10 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

The Blue Chips are the names that quarantined people know so they've been buying them. Huge amounts of that type of money are flowing into the market.

I bought oil stocks when they would pay people $35 per barrel to accept delivery. I'm not sure if that was considered risky or not, but it's over a 70% return so far. Not sure if I should sell them soon to buy them back when the market tanks again.
Old 05-26-20, 03:01 PM
  #140  
Admin-MemeCat
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Caught between the moon and NYC
Posts: 32,571
Received 89 Likes on 53 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by X View Post
The Blue Chips are the names that quarantined people know so they've been buying them. Huge amounts of that type of money are flowing into the market.

I bought oil stocks when they would pay people $35 per barrel to accept delivery. I'm not sure if that was considered risky or not, but it's over a 70% return so far. Not sure if I should sell them soon to buy them back when the market tanks again.
I agree with your statement. I also check the long term returns of anything I invest in and the funds I moved out of have not been good for a longer period than just this year. I never try to time the market with my investments. I'm just not vigilant enough to do all the research. That was smart to jump on those energy stocks. The market was insanely undervalued for multiple reasons.
Old 05-26-20, 06:15 PM
  #141  
DVD Talk Legend
 
cultshock's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: True North Strong & Free
Posts: 13,497
Received 87 Likes on 56 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by X View Post
The Blue Chips are the names that quarantined people know so they've been buying them. Huge amounts of that type of money are flowing into the market.

I bought oil stocks when they would pay people $35 per barrel to accept delivery. I'm not sure if that was considered risky or not, but it's over a 70% return so far. Not sure if I should sell them soon to buy them back when the market tanks again.
Shit, that was smart. I assumed oil wouldn't stay that low for long, I should have taken advantage of that.

And good point about the Blue Chips, novices would want to buy stocks in big name companies like that, it would likely make them more comfortable, lacking any concrete knowledge of the market.
Old 05-26-20, 07:58 PM
  #142  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,771
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

My RRSP (401k) is still all cash. Too much volatility and imho, this "recovery" is all smokes and mirrors. I'm not moving until there's a vaccine, and unemployment goes back to acceptable levels. Consumer spending is the engine of the economy and people are now in savings mode. And I don't see that changing any time soon. Make it, end of 2021.

That said, I've made adjustments to my CDN (outside of RRSP) portfolio and made $$$ off a few pot stocks and healthcare stocks.
Old 05-26-20, 09:54 PM
  #143  
Admin-MemeCat
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Caught between the moon and NYC
Posts: 32,571
Received 89 Likes on 53 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

I just don't have the smarts, or guts or conviction to try to time the market by throwing all my investments in cash. If you mess up and the market booms you could have really set yourself back.
Old 05-26-20, 10:17 PM
  #144  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,771
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Well, as I stated before, I'm retired and that money is all I've got. In that scenario, preservation of capital becomes far more important than any missed/future gains. I bailed before the shit hit the fan which achieved exactly what I wanted. Now, that qualified as "timing the markets" and you could say I was lucky sure, but I guessed right (and it wasn't all guess).

Now getting back in will be less "timing the market" and more simply looking at broad economic indicators. Unless I see lower unemployment, less volatility, and more importantly, consecutive quarters of economic growth, which I don't think will happen before Q3 or Q4 2021, I ain't moving. If it happens sooner, I'll act accordingly.

And my RRSP is 2/3 of my investments. I've still got 1/3, outside my RRSP, in play.
Old 05-26-20, 10:19 PM
  #145  
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,400
Received 26 Likes on 20 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post
I just don't have the smarts, or guts or conviction to try to time the market by throwing all my investments in cash. If you mess up and the market booms you could have really set yourself back.
My old boss moved everything into cash back in 2008 as we were entering the recession. I envied him as my 401k dropped 60%. But a year or so later, I talked to him about it again remarking that he must have made a ton of money, but he was still all in cash. As the market recovered, he kept waiting for another drop before thinking of going back into stocks. I ended up doing much better than he did.
The following users liked this post:
VinVega (05-27-20)
Old 05-28-20, 06:55 AM
  #146  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Location: USA
Posts: 12,298
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by PerryD View Post
My old boss moved everything into cash back in 2008 as we were entering the recession. I envied him as my 401k dropped 60%. But a year or so later, I talked to him about it again remarking that he must have made a ton of money, but he was still all in cash. As the market recovered, he kept waiting for another drop before thinking of going back into stocks. I ended up doing much better than he did.
I know someone who did this and ended up working for another 8 years to make back what they lost when thy sold at the bottom
Old 05-30-20, 02:59 PM
  #147  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,771
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

15% unemployment, 15+% drop in consumer spending and:

"Trump’s White House has devised a novel attempt to disguise the depth of the economic collapse: It has decided simply not to issue the usual midyear economic forecast."

Again, this "recovery" is all smokes and mirrors.

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.