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eXcentris 03-24-20 03:36 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
While it fills me with joy, considering my age, that after today I'm only under 10% down, the stock market yoyo ain't over.

nemein 03-25-20 08:23 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by eXcentris (Post 13711176)
While it fills me with joy, considering my age, that after today I'm only under 10% down, the stock market yoyo ain't over.

Yep. I've shifted some money around but still sitting on a lot of cash for the moment. There's going to be a bit of a stimulus package uptick, but unless people really do start going back to work soon and these "stay home" recommendations are lifted, it is all just as likely to drop again. Personally I'm waiting for a proven treatment plan, then I'll probably reinvest in earnest.

eXcentris 03-25-20 12:02 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by nemein (Post 13711641)
Yep. I've shifted some money around but still sitting on a lot of cash for the moment. There's going to be a bit of a stimulus package uptick, but unless people really do start going back to work soon and these "stay home" recommendations are lifted, it is all just as likely to drop again. Personally I'm waiting for a proven treatment plan, then I'll probably reinvest in earnest.

Yup, same here. I'm too old to take risks. I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and wait for this virus thing to be over. As you implied, consumer spending is the engine of the economy. And that ain't gonna pick up until people go back to work, and even then it will take a while for the unemployment % to go back down. Millions of people lost their jobs.

DVD Polizei 03-25-20 12:15 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by nemein (Post 13711641)
Yep. I've shifted some money around but still sitting on a lot of cash for the moment. There's going to be a bit of a stimulus package uptick, but unless people really do start going back to work soon and these "stay home" recommendations are lifted, it is all just as likely to drop again. Personally I'm waiting for a proven treatment plan, then I'll probably reinvest in earnest.

I'd bet if you correlate stock gradually coming back in grocery stores...to the stock market increases...they'll be the same. In other words, people see stocked shelves again, things get back to normal, people come out of their caves, etc.

JTH182 04-14-20 06:17 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
So what are everybody's feelings now? The market has bounced back a bit, but I'm taking my profits and waiting again. I think people are underestimating how much the shit is still going to hit the fan.

VinVega 04-14-20 07:36 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by JTH182 (Post 13723804)
So what are everybody's feelings now? The market has bounced back a bit, but I'm taking my profits and waiting again. I think people are underestimating how much the shit is still going to hit the fan.

It's too early to tell what is going to happen. When things open back up I expect a bump for the market, but if "the new normal" is empty sports games, movies, no big gatherings, travel, etc. it will take a long time before we see market numbers anywhere close to where we were.

kefrank 04-14-20 07:37 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by JTH182 (Post 13723804)
So what are everybody's feelings now? The market has bounced back a bit, but I'm taking my profits and waiting again. I think people are underestimating how much the shit is still going to hit the fan.

I'm still taking the long view. Even with the drop that has occurred, I'm still at something like a 5% annualized return since 2017. Obviously under normal circumstances that would be higher, but looking at it that way is less troubling than looking at how much my dollar value has dropped in the last couple months. :)

eXcentris 04-14-20 07:42 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
I'm lucky enough to be back where I was before the shit hit the fan but my RRSP (401k) is still all cash. I've been "playing" a bit with my Canadian dividend stocks portfolio and bought a couple of healthcare stocks and Corby Distilleries stock. I don't drink but I'm sure a heck of a lot of folks are drinking now. ;)

eXcentris 05-26-20 10:38 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
Hey, I'm stuck at home and I'm bored... wait... I'll become an investor! :doh:


Quarantined investors create ‘perfect storm of stupid’

Almost 800,000 bored Americans have opened online trading accounts in what Business Insider’s Linette Lopez describes as ‘a perfect storm of stupid.’

Ms. Lopez points to trading activity in pharmaceutical developer Moderna Inc. as proof that these newbie traders don’t know what they’re doing. On May 18, Moderna’s stock jumped 26 per cent on news that the company’s coronavirus treatment had produced successful results.

In the following days, however, it was noted that the drug trial was far less encouraging than the initial information release implied and the stock fell back ten per cent. “No one did their homework, and no one has since apologized”, writes Ms. Lopez, and adds, “ I have an extremely active subconscious, and I could not have dreamt of a more perfect condition for separating investors from their money if I tried.”

Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Snider has also noted the trend in higher stock trading. In a May 21 report, Mr. Snider charted the sharp jump in S&P 500 equity positions at U.S. online trading firm Robinhood Markets Inc. The number of positions surged from just over four million when the market bottomed in late March, to the current 12 million.

The new traders that aren’t buying and selling ETFs are almost certainly focused on the obvious individual names with strong price momentum like Amazon.com, Facebook Inc., Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp. and video game developers like Activision Blizzard.

This is all, of course, a recipe for disaster but market history teaches us not to try and time any kind of market top. The self-fulfilling prophecy of new money pushing stock higher, and attracting even more investment assets to a select group of companies or trading strategies can go on for a long time.

The one thing investors can expect from this trend is higher volatility – first upwards, then down – from the S&P 500’s most popular stocks, and likely also for the benchmark as a whole.

-- Scott Barlow, Globe and Mail market strategist


DVD Polizei 05-26-20 11:09 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
It was always a storm of stupid. It's just now, the previous traders have people to BLAME.

VinVega 05-26-20 11:40 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
After the recent surge in the markets I did a small rebalance to add about 5% to bonds, and I invested in more blue chip stocks, but I haven't made any drastic changes. I'm still in for the long haul.

General Zod 05-26-20 12:29 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by VinVega (Post 13747384)
After the recent surge in the markets I did a small rebalance to add about 5% to bonds, and I invested in more blue chip stocks, but I haven't made any drastic changes. I'm still in for the long haul.

Same. I moved into a SLIGHTLY more risky portfolio back when the market was at about 22k. Of course my financial advisor thought I should risk more since the general feeling from them was that the market had hit bottom in the reaction to this but at the time nobody really knew and the daily prognostications from the "experts" were that the market was about to crash and burn any minute day over day. So I thought I was taking a risk as it was.

VinVega 05-26-20 02:27 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by General Zod (Post 13747405)
Same. I moved into a SLIGHTLY more risky portfolio back when the market was at about 22k. Of course my financial advisor thought I should risk more since the general feeling from them was that the market had hit bottom in the reaction to this but at the time nobody really knew and the daily prognostications from the "experts" were that the market was about to crash and burn any minute day over day. So I thought I was taking a risk as it was.

For me, the riskier options I had did NOT do well in the recent market bounce back. It was the Blue Chips that did better. Maybe my 401k's just cffer crap mid cap and small cap options. :shrug:

X 05-26-20 02:48 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
The Blue Chips are the names that quarantined people know so they've been buying them. Huge amounts of that type of money are flowing into the market.

I bought oil stocks when they would pay people $35 per barrel to accept delivery. I'm not sure if that was considered risky or not, but it's over a 70% return so far. Not sure if I should sell them soon to buy them back when the market tanks again.

VinVega 05-26-20 03:01 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by X (Post 13747498)
The Blue Chips are the names that quarantined people know so they've been buying them. Huge amounts of that type of money are flowing into the market.

I bought oil stocks when they would pay people $35 per barrel to accept delivery. I'm not sure if that was considered risky or not, but it's over a 70% return so far. Not sure if I should sell them soon to buy them back when the market tanks again.

I agree with your statement. I also check the long term returns of anything I invest in and the funds I moved out of have not been good for a longer period than just this year. I never try to time the market with my investments. I'm just not vigilant enough to do all the research. That was smart to jump on those energy stocks. The market was insanely undervalued for multiple reasons.

cultshock 05-26-20 06:15 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by X (Post 13747498)
The Blue Chips are the names that quarantined people know so they've been buying them. Huge amounts of that type of money are flowing into the market.

I bought oil stocks when they would pay people $35 per barrel to accept delivery. I'm not sure if that was considered risky or not, but it's over a 70% return so far. Not sure if I should sell them soon to buy them back when the market tanks again.

Shit, that was smart. I assumed oil wouldn't stay that low for long, I should have taken advantage of that. :sad:

And good point about the Blue Chips, novices would want to buy stocks in big name companies like that, it would likely make them more comfortable, lacking any concrete knowledge of the market.

eXcentris 05-26-20 07:58 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
My RRSP (401k) is still all cash. Too much volatility and imho, this "recovery" is all smokes and mirrors. I'm not moving until there's a vaccine, and unemployment goes back to acceptable levels. Consumer spending is the engine of the economy and people are now in savings mode. And I don't see that changing any time soon. Make it, end of 2021.

That said, I've made adjustments to my CDN (outside of RRSP) portfolio and made $$$ off a few pot stocks and healthcare stocks.

VinVega 05-26-20 09:54 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
I just don't have the smarts, or guts or conviction to try to time the market by throwing all my investments in cash. If you mess up and the market booms you could have really set yourself back.

eXcentris 05-26-20 10:17 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
Well, as I stated before, I'm retired and that money is all I've got. In that scenario, preservation of capital becomes far more important than any missed/future gains. I bailed before the shit hit the fan which achieved exactly what I wanted. Now, that qualified as "timing the markets" and you could say I was lucky sure, but I guessed right (and it wasn't all guess).

Now getting back in will be less "timing the market" and more simply looking at broad economic indicators. Unless I see lower unemployment, less volatility, and more importantly, consecutive quarters of economic growth, which I don't think will happen before Q3 or Q4 2021, I ain't moving. If it happens sooner, I'll act accordingly.

And my RRSP is 2/3 of my investments. I've still got 1/3, outside my RRSP, in play.

PerryD 05-26-20 10:19 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by VinVega (Post 13747727)
I just don't have the smarts, or guts or conviction to try to time the market by throwing all my investments in cash. If you mess up and the market booms you could have really set yourself back.

My old boss moved everything into cash back in 2008 as we were entering the recession. I envied him as my 401k dropped 60%. But a year or so later, I talked to him about it again remarking that he must have made a ton of money, but he was still all in cash. As the market recovered, he kept waiting for another drop before thinking of going back into stocks. I ended up doing much better than he did.

Brian Shannon 05-28-20 06:55 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by PerryD (Post 13747737)
My old boss moved everything into cash back in 2008 as we were entering the recession. I envied him as my 401k dropped 60%. But a year or so later, I talked to him about it again remarking that he must have made a ton of money, but he was still all in cash. As the market recovered, he kept waiting for another drop before thinking of going back into stocks. I ended up doing much better than he did.

I know someone who did this and ended up working for another 8 years to make back what they lost when thy sold at the bottom

eXcentris 05-30-20 02:59 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
15% unemployment, 15+% drop in consumer spending and:

"Trump’s White House has devised a novel attempt to disguise the depth of the economic collapse: It has decided simply not to issue the usual midyear economic forecast."

Again, this "recovery" is all smokes and mirrors.

Brian Shannon 06-04-20 06:11 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by eXcentris (Post 13749866)
15% unemployment, 15+% drop in consumer spending and:

"Trumpís White House has devised a novel attempt to disguise the depth of the economic collapse: It has decided simply not to issue the usual midyear economic forecast."

Again, this "recovery" is all smokes and mirrors.

I disagree because there are actual sources reporting verifiable information about business activity. What the WH hides or covers up is irrelevant as no one is listening to them anyway.

DVD Polizei 06-04-20 10:51 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by PerryD (Post 13747737)
My old boss moved everything into cash back in 2008 as we were entering the recession. I envied him as my 401k dropped 60%. But a year or so later, I talked to him about it again remarking that he must have made a ton of money, but he was still all in cash. As the market recovered, he kept waiting for another drop before thinking of going back into stocks. I ended up doing much better than he did.

Yep, It confuses me why people think their own managers aren't moving their portfolios into the best possible areas, given risk parameters...so they take cash dumps and think they'll do better.

Only if you're a drug dealer or an arms dealer...will you do better with cash. :lol:


eXcentris 06-04-20 01:38 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by Brian Shannon (Post 13752524)
I disagree because there are actual sources reporting verifiable information about business activity. What the WH hides or covers up is irrelevant as no one is listening to them anyway.

Sure, I also know the numbers. They are not good. In a word, markets are going up despite those numbers. But that's nothing new, and again, it's not sustainable.


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