Go Back  DVD Talk Forum > General Discussions > Other Talk
Reload this Page >

Stock Market Meltdown

Other Talk "Otterville"

Stock Market Meltdown

Old 03-13-20, 08:40 AM
  #51  
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
d2cheer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Posts: 9,985
Received 40 Likes on 24 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

I am not concerned even though I have lost ~30%. It will bounce back and be better always does. I have about 14 years before retirement so there is plenty of time. .

I do love the whine and blame game though that some are trying to push...
Old 03-13-20, 08:42 AM
  #52  
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
d2cheer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Posts: 9,985
Received 40 Likes on 24 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
Yeah, we got a lot of liquidation going on, and many are just sitting on their cash (some probably literally)....waiting to get back in when they perceive the time to be right.

But what is really a problem is the Fed cutting rates. They didn't have to and now it will bring even more instability to those sectors. This won't do well for some housing markets, imo.

My neighbor sold his house in 2 days for $50K more than it was probably worth. That was last week however so it will be interesting going forward.
Old 03-13-20, 11:27 AM
  #53  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
The Bus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 54,907
Received 6 Likes on 6 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by sinned View Post
I started buying probably on the 3rd day that the market dropped and it's what day 15 now? I am all tapped out at this time. What's overwhelming is that the stocks are falling 10-20% at a time, rather than the incremental drop offs of previous market crashes.
I'm dollar cost averaging on the way down but aside from two or three individual stocks I'm just buying into the index. It's hard to buy the dip when there's a new dip every day.

I have some bonds I can move into stocks but I may not do that until I'm reasonably sure we've hit bottom, which I expect to be months from now.
The following users liked this post:
Jack Straw (03-13-20)
Old 03-13-20, 11:30 AM
  #54  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
The Bus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 54,907
Received 6 Likes on 6 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
But in addition, companies might be rethinking their knee-jerk anti-social reactions to what is still mostly unknown. Many events canceled were justified but now it's just getting ridiculous.
Disagree with your last phrase. I think it's necessary and for the most part we have done too little, too slowly. The right time to act was a few weeks ago. The next best time to act is right now.
Old 03-13-20, 12:11 PM
  #55  
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
d2cheer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Posts: 9,985
Received 40 Likes on 24 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Basically nothing was shut down for the swine flu and that was worse. It is ridiculous what is happening.

I ran to Target over lunch to pick up a Rx and half leaving the store had toilet paper.
Old 03-13-20, 01:33 PM
  #56  
DVD Talk Legend
 
spainlinx0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: NJ
Posts: 15,594
Received 55 Likes on 25 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

https://about.futurelearn.com/blog/covid-19-how-does-coronavirus-compare-tooutbreaks

Coronavirus vs. swine flu (H1N1) 2009-2010

Swine flu is the same strain of flu that wiped out 1.7% of the global population in 1918. It was declared a pandemic again in June 2009, and an estimated 11-21% of the world population contracted it.

Fortunately, the CFR is considerably lower than in the previous pandemic, with 0.1-0.5% of cases resulting in death. 18,500 of these deaths were laboratory-confirmed, but estimates are as high as 151,700-575,400 globally.

50-80% of severe cases were found in people who had underlying conditions such as pregnancy, asthma, diabetes, and cardiovascular disorders.

Compared to swine flu, coronavirus:
  • is less widespread
  • has caused fewer deaths
  • has a higher CFR
  • has a longer incubation period
  • affects young people less
Old 03-13-20, 01:39 PM
  #57  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DVD Polizei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 53,143
Received 77 Likes on 58 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Now the markets have a capped rebound.

Happened faster than what I thought it would.

Might have to do with the CDC reporting decreasing cases in the US.

Old 03-13-20, 01:41 PM
  #58  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Goat3001's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 17,099
Received 22 Likes on 10 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
Now the markets have a capped rebound.

Happened faster than what I thought it would.
The market is down 7000 points in the last month.

It is up 550 points right now.

That's not a rebound. That's a blip. The market would need to recover at least 3000 points before we talk about it coming back.
Old 03-13-20, 01:46 PM
  #59  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,784
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

As someone else stated, that might just be a "dead cat bounce".
Old 03-13-20, 02:05 PM
  #60  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DVD Polizei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 53,143
Received 77 Likes on 58 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by Goat3001 View Post
The market is down 7000 points in the last month.

It is up 550 points right now.

That's not a rebound. That's a blip. The market would need to recover at least 3000 points before we talk about it coming back.
It was the limit-up swing, which is rather indicative of what financials are doing, and thus my post ("capped rebound" on futures).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...rks-2020-03-13
Old 03-13-20, 02:19 PM
  #61  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Goat3001's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 17,099
Received 22 Likes on 10 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
It was the limit-up swing, which is rather indicative of what financials are doing, and thus my post ("capped rebound" on futures).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...rks-2020-03-13
It did open limit up - then came all the way down near 0 before coming back again. In typical circumstances, this would be a rather indicative move - 5% almost always is. But not when the market has opened limit down multiple times in one week.
Old 03-13-20, 02:58 PM
  #62  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Goat3001's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 17,099
Received 22 Likes on 10 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

NOW - we can start thinking about a rally. Still have ways to go though.
Old 03-13-20, 03:44 PM
  #63  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DJariya's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: La Palma, CA
Posts: 58,968
Received 166 Likes on 136 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Unless you plan to retire next week, why are some people terrified about their 401Ks? You're losing money okay, it happened in 2008 and 2001. Your money will come back. You can't even touch it now anyways.

Just don't look at your 401Ks right now.
Old 03-13-20, 03:59 PM
  #64  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 30,784
Received 92 Likes on 67 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

If you're under 50, you have no reason to be terrified. If you're 60+, then you might get flashes of a near future eating spam instead of filet mignon.
Old 03-13-20, 05:09 PM
  #65  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 29,862
Received 136 Likes on 105 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by eXcentris View Post
If you're under 50, you have no reason to be terrified. If you're 60+, then you might get flashes of a near future eating spam instead of filet mignon.
Or a near future of death. Screwed both ways.
Old 03-13-20, 06:00 PM
  #66  
DVD Talk God
 
Deftones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Arizona
Posts: 75,332
Received 48 Likes on 31 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by eXcentris View Post
If you're under 50, you have no reason to be terrified. If you're 60+, then you might get flashes of a near future eating spam instead of filet mignon.
hopefully if you are over 60 and you have a retirement account of some sort, you had it in all sorts of safe options rather than the market.
Old 03-13-20, 06:03 PM
  #67  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DVD Polizei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 53,143
Received 77 Likes on 58 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by Goat3001 View Post
NOW - we can start thinking about a rally. Still have ways to go though.
Old 03-13-20, 07:04 PM
  #68  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Jack Straw's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 1999
Location: So. Calif.
Posts: 5,159
Received 4 Likes on 3 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Not so fast. More pain is on the way.
Old 03-13-20, 10:08 PM
  #69  
Moderator
 
nemein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: 1bit away from total disaster
Posts: 34,198
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by Jack Straw View Post
Not so fast. More pain is on the way.
Yeah we're no where near the end of this thing. It is going to be months of a roller coaster ride, so unless you are a day trader/willing to take a gamble on the up and down I wouldn't recommend jumping back in yet. I noticed how the press conference today was timed to for the end of the trading day before a weekend. What happens Monday is really going to be telling.
The following users liked this post:
Why So Blu? (03-13-20)
Old 03-14-20, 05:50 AM
  #70  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DVD Polizei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 53,143
Received 77 Likes on 58 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by nemein View Post
Yeah we're no where near the end of this thing. It is going to be months of a roller coaster ride, so unless you are a day trader/willing to take a gamble on the up and down I wouldn't recommend jumping back in yet. I noticed how the press conference today was timed to for the end of the trading day before a weekend. What happens Monday is really going to be telling.
Mondays are generally political dumping festivals which correlate to weekend ranting. I hinestly think this will be over by the end of March. The hysteria may not.
Old 03-14-20, 06:18 AM
  #71  
Moderator
 
nemein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: 1bit away from total disaster
Posts: 34,198
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
Mondays are generally political dumping festivals which correlate to weekend ranting. I hinestly think this will be over by the end of March. The hysteria may not.
Considering the incubation period seems to be 2-3 weeks and the virus itself takes about 2 weeks to work through the system, I think we'll be at the height of it by the end of March. End of April is more realistic to start seeing the end of it... depending upon of course how seriously people take it and the recommended measures to "flatten the curve" as has become the saying.
Old 03-14-20, 08:58 AM
  #72  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DVD Polizei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 53,143
Received 77 Likes on 58 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

Yeah, the biggest issue is people taking advice to heart if they have symptoms and to not continue with risky behavior, endangering others; or adhering to quarantine measures even if they don't "feel" sick. Like the situation on Colorado.
Old 03-14-20, 03:17 PM
  #73  
Admin-MemeCat
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Caught between the moon and NYC
Posts: 32,621
Received 92 Likes on 56 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

I just did a rebalance of my investments to get more in line with where I should be. The bonds were growing as a percentage because the stocks were tanking so bad. I took a bit more blue chips and I'm ready for the rebound. Let's do this. It's probably going to continue to swing wildly, but I think we're still about 5-10% below where the real number should be. And if I'm wrong I got 20 years to sort it out.
Old 03-14-20, 07:01 PM
  #74  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
JTH182's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 5,354
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

I pulled most of my money out of stocks and into cash a few months ago because this correction was so easy to see coming. I missed some of the run up unfortunately, but now I've been trading TQQQ during this carnage because my account is so small that IDGAF. I'm up maybe 10% during all this craziness.
Old 03-14-20, 07:54 PM
  #75  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
DVD Polizei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 53,143
Received 77 Likes on 58 Posts
Re: Stock Market Meltdown

I think stocks across the board are going to spike due to demand, which companies will easily increase profit margins a little (but not enough to get called out) dividends will increase as well. And I mean everything. Food, paper products, bottled water, etc.

I would not be surprised if we hit 30K later this year, with a correction in Jan 2021 by 1000 or so.

The only issue (in the back of my mind) which has a tendency to get really narly...is how long can the population go with low-stocked shelves before more measures are taken, which will then drive down markets even more due to civil breakdown. I don't even wanna think about it, but there's a fine fine line between an amazing rebound...and a fallout of resources which will take a "disciplinary force" to correct.

We are not at that point, but people really need to chill the fuck out at grocery stores and only buy what they actually need.

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 03-14-20 at 07:59 PM.

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.