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d2cheer 03-13-20 08:40 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
I am not concerned even though I have lost ~30%. It will bounce back and be better always does. I have about 14 years before retirement so there is plenty of time. .

I do love the whine and blame game though that some are trying to push...

d2cheer 03-13-20 08:42 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei (Post 13703189)
Yeah, we got a lot of liquidation going on, and many are just sitting on their cash (some probably literally)....waiting to get back in when they perceive the time to be right.

But what is really a problem is the Fed cutting rates. They didn't have to and now it will bring even more instability to those sectors. This won't do well for some housing markets, imo.


My neighbor sold his house in 2 days for $50K more than it was probably worth. That was last week however so it will be interesting going forward.

The Bus 03-13-20 11:27 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by sinned (Post 13702708)
I started buying probably on the 3rd day that the market dropped and it's what day 15 now? I am all tapped out at this time. What's overwhelming is that the stocks are falling 10-20% at a time, rather than the incremental drop offs of previous market crashes.

I'm dollar cost averaging on the way down but aside from two or three individual stocks I'm just buying into the index. It's hard to buy the dip when there's a new dip every day. :lol:

I have some bonds I can move into stocks but I may not do that until I'm reasonably sure we've hit bottom, which I expect to be months from now.

The Bus 03-13-20 11:30 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei (Post 13703155)
But in addition, companies might be rethinking their knee-jerk anti-social reactions to what is still mostly unknown. Many events canceled were justified but now it's just getting ridiculous.

Disagree with your last phrase. I think it's necessary and for the most part we have done too little, too slowly. The right time to act was a few weeks ago. The next best time to act is right now.

d2cheer 03-13-20 12:11 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
Basically nothing was shut down for the swine flu and that was worse. It is ridiculous what is happening.

I ran to Target over lunch to pick up a Rx and half leaving the store had toilet paper. :lol:

spainlinx0 03-13-20 01:33 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

https://about.futurelearn.com/blog/covid-19-how-does-coronavirus-compare-to-other-outbreaks

Coronavirus vs. swine flu (H1N1) 2009-2010

Swine flu is the same strain of flu that wiped out 1.7% of the global population in 1918. It was declared a pandemic again in June 2009, and an estimated 11-21% of the world population contracted it.

Fortunately, the CFR is considerably lower than in the previous pandemic, with 0.1-0.5% of cases resulting in death. 18,500 of these deaths were laboratory-confirmed, but estimates are as high as 151,700-575,400 globally.

50-80% of severe cases were found in people who had underlying conditions such as pregnancy, asthma, diabetes, and cardiovascular disorders.

Compared to swine flu, coronavirus:
  • is less widespread
  • has caused fewer deaths
  • has a higher CFR
  • has a longer incubation period
  • affects young people less

DVD Polizei 03-13-20 01:39 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
Now the markets have a capped rebound. :lol:

Happened faster than what I thought it would.

Might have to do with the CDC reporting decreasing cases in the US.


Goat3001 03-13-20 01:41 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei (Post 13703488)
Now the markets have a capped rebound. :lol:

Happened faster than what I thought it would.

The market is down 7000 points in the last month.

It is up 550 points right now.

That's not a rebound. That's a blip. The market would need to recover at least 3000 points before we talk about it coming back.

eXcentris 03-13-20 01:46 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
As someone else stated, that might just be a "dead cat bounce".

DVD Polizei 03-13-20 02:05 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by Goat3001 (Post 13703493)
The market is down 7000 points in the last month.

It is up 550 points right now.

That's not a rebound. That's a blip. The market would need to recover at least 3000 points before we talk about it coming back.

It was the limit-up swing, which is rather indicative of what financials are doing, and thus my post ("capped rebound" on futures).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...rks-2020-03-13

Goat3001 03-13-20 02:19 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei (Post 13703516)
It was the limit-up swing, which is rather indicative of what financials are doing, and thus my post ("capped rebound" on futures).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...rks-2020-03-13

It did open limit up - then came all the way down near 0 before coming back again. In typical circumstances, this would be a rather indicative move - 5% almost always is. But not when the market has opened limit down multiple times in one week.

Goat3001 03-13-20 02:58 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
NOW - we can start thinking about a rally. Still have ways to go though.

DJariya 03-13-20 03:44 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
Unless you plan to retire next week, why are some people terrified about their 401Ks? You're losing money okay, it happened in 2008 and 2001. Your money will come back. You can't even touch it now anyways.

Just don't look at your 401Ks right now.

eXcentris 03-13-20 03:59 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
If you're under 50, you have no reason to be terrified. If you're 60+, then you might get flashes of a near future eating spam instead of filet mignon.

fujishig 03-13-20 05:09 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by eXcentris (Post 13703670)
If you're under 50, you have no reason to be terrified. If you're 60+, then you might get flashes of a near future eating spam instead of filet mignon.

Or a near future of death. Screwed both ways.

Deftones 03-13-20 06:00 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by eXcentris (Post 13703670)
If you're under 50, you have no reason to be terrified. If you're 60+, then you might get flashes of a near future eating spam instead of filet mignon.

hopefully if you are over 60 and you have a retirement account of some sort, you had it in all sorts of safe options rather than the market.

DVD Polizei 03-13-20 06:03 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by Goat3001 (Post 13703600)
NOW - we can start thinking about a rally. Still have ways to go though.

:bdance:

Jack Straw 03-13-20 07:04 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
Not so fast. More pain is on the way.

nemein 03-13-20 10:08 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by Jack Straw (Post 13703796)
Not so fast. More pain is on the way.

Yeah we're no where near the end of this thing. It is going to be months of a roller coaster ride, so unless you are a day trader/willing to take a gamble on the up and down I wouldn't recommend jumping back in yet. I noticed how the press conference today was timed to for the end of the trading day before a weekend. What happens Monday is really going to be telling.

DVD Polizei 03-14-20 05:50 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by nemein (Post 13703924)
Yeah we're no where near the end of this thing. It is going to be months of a roller coaster ride, so unless you are a day trader/willing to take a gamble on the up and down I wouldn't recommend jumping back in yet. I noticed how the press conference today was timed to for the end of the trading day before a weekend. What happens Monday is really going to be telling.

Mondays are generally political dumping festivals which correlate to weekend ranting. I hinestly think this will be over by the end of March. The hysteria may not.

nemein 03-14-20 06:18 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei (Post 13704029)
Mondays are generally political dumping festivals which correlate to weekend ranting. I hinestly think this will be over by the end of March. The hysteria may not.

Considering the incubation period seems to be 2-3 weeks and the virus itself takes about 2 weeks to work through the system, I think we'll be at the height of it by the end of March. End of April is more realistic to start seeing the end of it... depending upon of course how seriously people take it and the recommended measures to "flatten the curve" as has become the saying.

DVD Polizei 03-14-20 08:58 AM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
Yeah, the biggest issue is people taking advice to heart if they have symptoms and to not continue with risky behavior, endangering others; or adhering to quarantine measures even if they don't "feel" sick. Like the situation on Colorado.

VinVega 03-14-20 03:17 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
I just did a rebalance of my investments to get more in line with where I should be. The bonds were growing as a percentage because the stocks were tanking so bad. I took a bit more blue chips and I'm ready for the rebound. Let's do this. It's probably going to continue to swing wildly, but I think we're still about 5-10% below where the real number should be. And if I'm wrong I got 20 years to sort it out.

JTH182 03-14-20 07:01 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
I pulled most of my money out of stocks and into cash a few months ago because this correction was so easy to see coming. I missed some of the run up unfortunately, but now I've been trading TQQQ during this carnage because my account is so small that IDGAF. I'm up maybe 10% during all this craziness.

DVD Polizei 03-14-20 07:54 PM

Re: Stock Market Meltdown
 
I think stocks across the board are going to spike due to demand, which companies will easily increase profit margins a little (but not enough to get called out) dividends will increase as well. And I mean everything. Food, paper products, bottled water, etc.

I would not be surprised if we hit 30K later this year, with a correction in Jan 2021 by 1000 or so.

The only issue (in the back of my mind) which has a tendency to get really narly...is how long can the population go with low-stocked shelves before more measures are taken, which will then drive down markets even more due to civil breakdown. I don't even wanna think about it, but there's a fine fine line between an amazing rebound...and a fallout of resources which will take a "disciplinary force" to correct.

We are not at that point, but people really need to chill the fuck out at grocery stores and only buy what they actually need.


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