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Is there any truth to this theory?

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Is there any truth to this theory?

Old 07-16-15, 08:41 PM
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Is there any truth to this theory?

So I know this guy who's an overall massive dumbass, but he did give me one of his theories that has seemingly proven itself to me over the years. He said that when you're buying scratchers to always buy the one with the lowest max prize because those tickets give more money in smaller prizes. I bought 5 $1 tickets with a max prize of $300 and walked away with $107 today. I've had similar experiences in the past. So, am I just getting lucky or is this guy on the level?
Old 07-16-15, 09:00 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Scratchers are odd. I read a story of a professor back east that solved the algorithm for a scratcher and he has won thousands.
Old 07-16-15, 09:04 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

The deal with scratchers is that you have to go to your States lottery website and see what prizes are left to win on the game. Often the grand prize and lots of the better prizes have been already won and only low level prizes are still available. They will still sell the game even though there is almost nothing left to win.
Old 07-16-15, 09:59 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

I thought about this for 10 or 15 minutes while walking to the corner store, and came up with this.

Beats the hell out of me.
Old 07-16-15, 11:01 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Cusm View Post
Scratchers are odd. I read a story of a professor back east that solved the algorithm for a scratcher and he has won thousands.
Yeah, I think I read about that in Wired several years ago.


ETA: http://www.wired.com/2011/01/ff_lottery/

Last edited by Josh-da-man; 07-16-15 at 11:06 PM.
Old 07-17-15, 11:44 AM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

I have heard that theory about slot machines in casinos - avoid the ones with huge jackpots because they never pay off. It sounds plausible but it would be nice if there were some data to back it up.
Old 07-17-15, 11:51 AM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Off to buy some low prize scratchers.
Old 07-17-15, 11:54 AM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Quatermass View Post
I have heard that theory about slot machines in casinos - avoid the ones with huge jackpots because they never pay off. It sounds plausible but it would be nice if there were some data to back it up.
for the most part, that is true. anything with a progressive and/or is a licensed themed slot machine (friends, ellen, walking dead) traditionally have worse odds than slots that do not have a theme that the slot company has to pay to license.
Old 07-17-15, 11:55 AM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Years ago, a newspaper in Michigan, it was most likely either the Detroit News or the Grand Rapids Press, would publish the list of winning Lotto numbers for the past 6 months, under the heading "For those of you that want to look for the pattern". Not "a" pattern, but "the" pattern. It made me wonder how many people spent any significant amount of time looking for that pattern.
Old 07-17-15, 11:57 AM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

If the percentage of prize money to purchase money is the same, then yes, it's legit.
Suppose the systems give out $20 for every $100 lottery tickets on average. With a high max prize, fewer people will get prizes, but the ones who do will get larger payouts. With a lower max prize, more people will get prizes, but the payouts will be lower.
Old 07-17-15, 12:03 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man View Post
Yeah, I think I read about that in Wired several years ago.


ETA: http://www.wired.com/2011/01/ff_lottery/
Yeah, but even if you cracked the code, and could tell if a ticket was a winner before it was scratched, really only a store owner could abuse it. They don't let customers go thru the tickets and pick which ones they want to buy. You pick a game you want to buy, and they give you the first tickets off the spool.
Old 07-17-15, 01:59 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Obi-Wan Jabroni View Post
Yeah, but even if you cracked the code, and could tell if a ticket was a winner before it was scratched, really only a store owner could abuse it. They don't let customers go thru the tickets and pick which ones they want to buy. You pick a game you want to buy, and they give you the first tickets off the spool.
If it's the same article I'm thinking of - a Tic-Tac-Toe game in the Canadian lottery - then actually, no. The "hack" worked by looking at a bunch of numbers on tic-tac-toe boards that were not covered. Most of those numbers repeated - e.g there might be four 23s on the tic-tac-toe boards - but some numbers did not repeat - e.g there was only one 7. If the card had three (or more) unique single numbers, it was almost certainly a winner. The store the guy bought his cards from was happy to let him go through the cards looking for winners, because he didn't have to scratch off anything to tell if the card was a winner or not. They could thus sell the cards to someone else.

Interesting piece. You should check it out.
Old 07-17-15, 02:08 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

I just read it before I posted. I understand that he could tell winners by the pattern without scratching them off, I've just never been in a store they let you pick the cards you want to buy. Around here, Usually they're all on a spool and attached together, like toilet paper. They're behind the counter. If you tell the guy you want 3 tic-tac-toe's, he rips the first 3 off the spool and hands them to you. I really doubt that they'd hand anyone the whole spool and let him rip it apart and pick and chose the ones he wants to buy.
Old 07-17-15, 02:15 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Obi-Wan Jabroni View Post
I really doubt that they'd hand anyone the whole spool and let him rip it apart and pick and chose the ones he wants to buy.
That would never happen. If someone were to ask the lottery vendor would probably be suspect of something illegal and refuse.
Old 07-17-15, 02:35 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Sure!

That is why all those who buy scratchers are very wealthy!
Old 07-17-15, 04:15 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Obi-Wan Jabroni View Post
I just read it before I posted. I understand that he could tell winners by the pattern without scratching them off, I've just never been in a store they let you pick the cards you want to buy. Around here, Usually they're all on a spool and attached together, like toilet paper. They're behind the counter. If you tell the guy you want 3 tic-tac-toe's, he rips the first 3 off the spool and hands them to you. I really doubt that they'd hand anyone the whole spool and let him rip it apart and pick and chose the ones he wants to buy.
Yea, I was wondering about how one could game that system; the only way I could see someone playing a scratch-off game to their advantage would be if it's some kind of game where "every card is a winner" and you would have to only scratch off certain boxes. Otherwise, just knowing a card is a winner before you scratch off the boxes has limited advantage.
Old 07-17-15, 04:19 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

You guys are all missing the point. It was a Canadian lottery.
Old 07-17-15, 04:29 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Brian Shannon View Post
Sure!

That is why all those who buy scratchers are very wealthy!
Old 07-17-15, 04:30 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Timber View Post
You guys are all missing the point. It was a Canadian lottery.
So you can game the system in Canada because retailers are too nice and unassuming?
Old 07-17-15, 04:43 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Not having to do with scratch offs, but somewhat related to trying to scam the system.

I remember back in the day when I collected NBA basketball cards. I think there was David Robinson rookie card that was worth quite a bit at the time. I'd read somewhere that all packets that included that card started with a certain player on top of the pack.

So you could see through the packaging what that first card was, and it indeed worked.
Old 07-17-15, 04:53 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Originally Posted by Timber View Post
You guys are all missing the point. It was a Canadian lottery.
Yeah, our tickets are usually on the counter, under a plastic cover. You tell them you want a ticket, and they'll slide the cover off for you to pick the one(s) you want. I've never seen a roll type system, here.

Like this:

Old 07-17-15, 05:43 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

^ Yup, that's how it's like. I used to be a convenience store clerk and people would definitely ask for the "third from the bottom" or such.
Old 07-17-15, 06:04 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

"If you don't play, you can't win."

You also can't lose. I'll go with Door Number Two.
Old 07-17-15, 06:34 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

The real question is...where ya been for the past few years, norm? Everything cool?
Old 07-17-15, 07:39 PM
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Re: Is there any truth to this theory?

Yeah, after my netbook died I only had my phone for net access and it was a pain in the ass trying navigate the site. Since I added WiFi for Netflix and such I got a tablet too. It was cheaper than a new phone and it's bigger.

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