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Roulette strategy question

Old 10-27-10, 06:38 PM
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Roulette strategy question

I always wondered if this would work. I don't see why it wouldn't, but I bet you guys will correct me.

Red or Black, your odds are almost 50/50 (I'm aware of the 0 and 00).
You put $2 on black
If you win you collect your money
If you lose, then you put $4 on black,
If you lose, then you put $8 on black.
At this point you're in for $14, and let's say it comes up black, you win $16 right? You just won $2 overall.

Why can't a gambler just keep repeating this? As long as you double down every time you lose you come out ahead. Even if you double down until you're putting down thousands of dollars (which could easily happen) you will eventually hit black and win it all back. Right? There must be a hole in my plan.
Old 10-27-10, 06:42 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...ting_system%29
Old 10-27-10, 07:28 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

This sentance stood out
A smart pit boss would welcome a Martingale strategy player and comp him heavily so that he returns.
So while the system is not a sure thing, it seems like the best way to 1) play for a long time and 2) maximize your comps. Lots of free cocktails and maybe a free dinner. If I do $2 bets, doubling every time I lose, play for 2 hours, lose $50 and drink six cocktails while I'm playing, I'd consider that a pretty good deal. Probably the same price as sitting at the bar.
Old 10-27-10, 08:42 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
This sentance stood out So while the system is not a sure thing, it seems like the best way to 1) play for a long time and 2) maximize your comps. Lots of free cocktails and maybe a free dinner. If I do $2 bets, doubling every time I lose, play for 2 hours, lose $50 and drink six cocktails while I'm playing, I'd consider that a pretty good deal. Probably the same price as sitting at the bar.
If you plan on doubling every time you lose in a 2-hour period and start with $2, make sure you bring along $2.305843009213694 x 10<sup>18</sup>.

At least that's what my calculator is saying, based on 1 spin per minute (and losing 60 times).
Old 10-27-10, 10:00 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

I would say this is an excellent system to play if you have an infinite bankroll and infinite time in which to gamble with it.
Old 10-27-10, 10:05 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

So while the system is not a sure thing, it seems like the best way to 1) play for a long time and 2) maximize your comps. Lots of free cocktails and maybe a free dinner. If I do $2 bets, doubling every time I lose, play for 2 hours, lose $50 and drink six cocktails while I'm playing, I'd consider that a pretty good deal. Probably the same price as sitting at the bar.
You're missing the point. Pitbosses would want to comp you for a reason--because that play would ultimately be MASSIVELY profitable to the casino. In your scenario, you lose $50. But that's not how Martingale works. You don't lose $50. You lose a bunch more. In fact if you follow your own system, it's virtually impossible to lose $50. You'll win a little or lose it all.

Bring $500 with you. Suppose this works for awhile and you're up to $550. Even then you're EIGHT spins away from broke. And if you think you can't lose 8 spins in a row, you're kidding yourself.

Last edited by mgbfan; 10-27-10 at 10:14 PM.
Old 10-27-10, 10:11 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Double post sorry
Old 10-28-10, 12:18 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by stevevt View Post
If you plan on doubling every time you lose in a 2-hour period and start with $2, make sure you bring along $2.305843009213694 x 10<sup>18</sup>.

At least that's what my calculator is saying, based on 1 spin per minute (and losing 60 times).
But in a near 50:50 black/red bet who is wrong 60 times in a row? That would never happen.

It seems like a very slow way to win, but also a very slow way to loose (provided I had enough bank roll to continue doubling)

Bring $500 with you. Suppose this works for awhile and you're up to $550. Even then you're EIGHT spins away from broke. And if you think you can't lose 8 spins in a row, you're kidding yourself.
But eight consecutive losses is rare. Let's say I had $10,000. I could loose 12 times in a row, which almost never happens. But would I hit the table limit? What is the table limit usually? $2,000
Old 10-28-10, 12:24 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
But in a near 50:50 black/red bet who is wrong 60 times in a row? That would never happen.


casinos love people like you...
Old 10-28-10, 12:25 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Ive only sat at a roulette table less than 5 times, and Ive seen a 50-50 come up 12 times in a row.

I played online one time and the last time I ever do that as it is blatantly fixed. I was using a similar theory as this one. I started betting a color and even/odd. I saw black come up about 18 times in a row and the last 12+ were even black numbers.

Some math geek will come along with the probability theorem and disprove my theory, but from what Ive witnessed its better to ride the wave rather than bet on something because its overdue. If black comes up 3 times in a row, bet black. That thing will keep going black for 5 more times.
Old 10-28-10, 12:30 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
But eight consecutive losses is rare. Let's say I had $10,000. I could loose 12 times in a row, which almost never happens.
Which sequence is more likely to occur:

BBRBRRBRBRRB

-or-

BBBBBBBBBBBB
Old 10-28-10, 12:33 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
But in a near 50:50 black/red bet who is wrong 60 times in a row? That would never happen.

It seems like a very slow way to win, but also a very slow way to loose (provided I had enough bank roll to continue doubling)

But eight consecutive losses is rare. Let's say I had $10,000. I could loose 12 times in a row, which almost never happens. But would I hit the table limit? What is the table limit usually? $2,000
From the Wikipedia page Groucho linked above:

Originally Posted by Wikipedia
In 73 spins, there is a 50.3% chance that you will at some point have lost at least 6 spins in a row. (The chance of still being solvent after the first six spins is 0.978744, and the chance of becoming bankrupt at each subsequent spin is (1-0.526316)x0.021256 = 0.010069, where the first term is the chance that you won the (n-6)th spin - if you had lost the (n-6)th spin, you would have become bankrupt on the (n-1)th spin. Thus over 73 spins the probability of remaining solvent is 0.978744 x (1-0.010069)^67 = 0.49683, and thus the chance of becoming bankrupt is 1-0.49683 = 50.3%.)
So over 73 spins there's a >50% chance that at one point or another you'll be down $126 (and will need to place a $128 bet to continue your system, with a slightly <50% chance that you will win that bet).

I would be very careful about using this system if you're trying to just kill a couple hours without losing too much money.
Old 10-28-10, 12:40 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Which sequence is more likely to occur:

BBRBRRBRBRRB

-or-

BBBBBBBBBBBB
obviously it is the first one, because there's no way it can hit black that many times!
Old 10-28-10, 01:39 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Reminds me of something I did in Vegas on a roulette machine to win two free buffets at one of the fancier places. Forget the details, but basically the more you bet the more points you won towards the meal. Basically spent $20 and an hour to get two $25 dinners. Not a big bargain, but it was sort of fun I guess.
Old 10-28-10, 01:45 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

I would imagine that most people who use this system would run out of the stones to keep playing before they'd run out of bankroll.
Old 10-28-10, 01:55 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

always bet on black

Always bet on black.
Old 10-28-10, 03:13 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

I've seen people use this method all the time when I browse the Roulette tables. People think it's foolproof because of the near 50/50 ratio, and they usually need to learn the hard way how dangerous this betting method is.

Originally Posted by starman9000 View Post
I would imagine that most people who use this system would run out of the stones to keep playing before they'd run out of bankroll.
Exactly. Let's say you're trying to win some decent money by starting your bets at $50 each. After 3 losing bets, you're looking at a $400 bet just to recover your loss + $50 profit.

As others said, you're either going to win a little or lose it all.
Old 10-28-10, 03:39 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question



listen, you're not going to come up with a system to beat any casino game

especially not the martingale theory, which has been disproved a billion times over the internet

on a $5 minimum table, you're often going to see a $500 maximum bet. which means, you'll be able to cover $5, $10, $20, $40, $80, $160, and $320 bets before you're not allowed to go higher. That's 7 losses in a row and quite easy to do if you sit down for a few hours.

if you're hell bent on drinking cheaply and slowly and minimizing the hit on the bankroll, play games that are slow dealing and low variance. Games like Pai Gow Poker, Let It Ride, etc. You may win a little, you may lose a little, but you're gonna be drinking a lot.

The golden rule: If you ever think you have a new betting system that will beat the casino (or someone tells you they do), you don't. Casinos have been offering games with mathematically proven house advantages that gamblers have been trying to "beat" for well over a century. There's nothing you can think of that hasn't been thought of and tried thousands of times before.
Old 10-28-10, 03:51 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by El Scorcho View Post

if you're hell bent on drinking cheaply and slowly and minimizing the hit on the bankroll, play games that are slow dealing and low variance. Games like Pai Gow Poker, Let It Ride, etc. You may win a little, you may lose a little, but you're gonna be drinking a lot.
Yep. Although I don't know about LIR. I've been killed in short fashion a few times on that.

I would also suggest Blackjack Switch for slow dealing & low variance.

Now Roulette is the game if you want to increase your chances of being at a table game with dumb hot chicks.
Old 10-28-10, 04:07 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
Yep. Although I don't know about LIR. I've been killed in short fashion a few times on that.

I would also suggest Blackjack Switch for slow dealing & low variance.

Now Roulette is the game if you want to increase your chances of being at a table game with dumb hot chicks.
LIR you should last a while so long as you're on a full 7 person table where everyone takes their sweet ass time. At a 7 person table you probably play about 1 hand every 90 seconds, maybe even longer.

At a 3.5% house edge, you can expect to lose about 17.5 cents per hand in EV. Let's say you get 40 hands per hour... you're "paying" about $7/hr to play there. Assuming no $1 side bets.

With the side bets, you'll pay $.25 per hand, so an extra $10/hr.

It's a high variance game so perhaps its not the best example... it's just the slowest non-pai gow game I coudl think of.
Old 10-28-10, 04:14 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Which sequence is more likely to occur:

BBRBRRBRBRRB

-or-

BBBBBBBBBBBB
They're both equally likely to occur.

El Scorcho, in your graph what is "Flat Betting"?
Old 10-28-10, 04:27 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by El Scorcho View Post
LIR you should last a while so long as you're on a full 7 person table where everyone takes their sweet ass time. At a 7 person table you probably play about 1 hand every 90 seconds, maybe even longer.

At a 3.5% house edge, you can expect to lose about 17.5 cents per hand in EV. Let's say you get 40 hands per hour... you're "paying" about $7/hr to play there. Assuming no $1 side bets.

With the side bets, you'll pay $.25 per hand, so an extra $10/hr.

It's a high variance game so perhaps its not the best example... it's just the slowest non-pai gow game I coudl think of.

That's true. I never play it anymore because I've had little luck at it. And my quicker exits were probably at tables that weren't crowded. And I always did the side bet, even though the house edge sucked.

I'm going back to Vegas next weekend. I think Flamingo has Mississippi Stud. Very similar to LIR. Might give it a shot. Oh how I miss their Caribbean Stud table - always won on that table.

Like I said Blackjack Switch is a good one for long term low variance play. I've rarely lost a lot playing that. Pretty easy to break even on hands between the switching, offering post-switching doubling and splitting, and even the dealer-push-22.
Old 10-28-10, 04:41 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
They're both equally likely to occur.

El Scorcho, in your graph what is "Flat Betting"?
betting $10 a spin and never varying
Old 10-28-10, 04:41 PM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

good luck finding blackjack switch in any place that's not named o'sheas or casino royale.
Old 10-29-10, 09:42 AM
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Re: Roulette strategy question

Originally Posted by Deftones View Post
good luck finding blackjack switch in any place that's not named o'sheas or casino royale.
I've played it at Bill's and Excalibur. Bill's has had it (2 tables) for at least a year now. I played it at Excalibur in August. It's getting popular. I would imagine if Excalibur has it, at least a few of the other MGM-Mirage casinos have it too.

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