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I'm mad at myself. Reassure me.

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I'm mad at myself. Reassure me.

Old 02-22-06, 07:09 AM
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I'm mad at myself. Reassure me.

I had 66. Limped preflop because I haven't flopped a set in decades. We hit the board six handed or so, flop comes out: 4d, 6d, 7d. Checked around to me, I lead out for $8. A guy goes all-in for $125 or so, and another player calls all-in for $78. I knew that I needed the board to pair, so I folded. Turn came a rag, river, 7. Now, I'd have taken in a pretty fucking big pot, but I folded because I knew that I was only 35% to win. The initial all-in had Qd9d (flopped the flush, as I suspected), the caller had Ad5s (open-ended, nut flush draw).

It would've been nice to have taken down that pot, but damned if I'm not pissed off at myself for laying that down.

-JP
Old 02-22-06, 08:33 AM
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Don't worry, if you would have called the bet, that 7 wouldnt have came out. Thats my theory.
Old 02-22-06, 08:45 AM
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I would have called. You were getting about 3:1 on your money when both went all in. With a 35% chance to win, you are getting the odds to call.
Old 02-22-06, 09:16 AM
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I wouldn't have called. I am afraid of someone holding 89d, A5d, 109d, or 77. Not gonna put my money in when I know I don't have the best hand and others might be drawing to a bigger hand.
Old 02-22-06, 09:23 AM
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Well, the OP doesn't tell us how much money is on the table, but I would have called the same, he is still getting 3:1 on his set.

You may very well have the best hand. I would have put one of the two players on a either a Ad, Kd or 5d. The other player may have had a straight and/or a flush draw, possibly two pair, most likely the flopped flush.

I would have been more scared of a 456d board than a 457 board. I still call when I have the odds to call, you are getting the odds there. I can understand why some would not call though. It is close. With only one in the hand, you can fold, because you aren't getting the odds.

Last edited by gimmepilotwings; 02-22-06 at 09:27 AM.
Old 02-22-06, 09:42 AM
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The main factor for me was that I was only $10 in at that time. I was aware of the odds, but the fact that I wasn't at all invested in the hand made me sway toward folding (had I been a bit more in the pot, I likely would've swayed the other way...like you say, statistically it was kinda close).

-JP
Old 02-22-06, 11:00 AM
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If you're going to play unlimited hands and you have unlimited funds, then pot odds mean everything. But if you're talking about risking ALL your bankroll (or all you care to spend for now), then pot odds mean only a little. It depends a lot on how much losses you are able to absorb and still be able to bounce back.
Old 02-22-06, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by namja
If you're going to play unlimited hands and you have unlimited funds, then pot odds mean everything. But if you're talking about risking ALL your bankroll (or all you care to spend for now), then pot odds mean only a little. It depends a lot on how much losses you are able to absorb and still be able to bounce back.

I agree and that is one of the reasons why I stated that knowing how much money the OP had was an important factor, but probably would not have deterred a call from me.

It is a very close decision either way.
Old 02-22-06, 12:31 PM
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gimmie, when you are calculating your pots odds, I'm assuming the way you do it your counting in your own bet. When you are saying you're getting 3:1 on your $, how are you relating that in terms of the odds in winning. Do most of you calculate pot odds this way?

I do it the other way and say its 2:1 which would make it a borderline decision.
Old 02-22-06, 01:35 PM
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Your fold was fine, especially when you consider that one of the two could have top set, which would mean you were drawing to one out. Even if one has bottom set, that kills your pot odds because you lose three outs twice.

The hands that they ended up having would have realistically given you the best possible odds for the situation, but their range of hands included many others that would make things far worse for you and -EV overall.
Old 02-22-06, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by actyper
gimmie, when you are calculating your pots odds, I'm assuming the way you do it your counting in your own bet. When you are saying you're getting 3:1 on your $, how are you relating that in terms of the odds in winning. Do most of you calculate pot odds this way?

I do it the other way and say its 2:1 which would make it a borderline decision.
I did include "my bet" in the odds because you need to put in (lets say $25 more to go all in) His $25 has an expected return of $75 if he won. The other two players ahead of him had already put in their money. I am not including money already in the pot, I am just talking about the calling with his set against two other callers.

Of course if you had any idea that someone had the top set, of course you would have to fold it.

I definitely do not fault the fold by any means. With that flop, a straight flush, (albeit unlikely) could have hit a player and you would be drawing dead.

We are also talking about online players that will push all in on less than marginal draws. If this were a live ring game, it would make it harder to make the call without getting a read on the player.

I calculate my pot odds differently than you I guess. With a 1:3 chance to win, there would need to be at least 2x my bet in the pot in order to make the call.

Last edited by gimmepilotwings; 02-22-06 at 02:56 PM.
Old 02-22-06, 02:58 PM
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I don't think you should be including your bet in your odds calculations. The way you're doing it, every pot odd would start at 2:1.
Old 02-22-06, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by NatrlBornThrllr
The main factor for me was that I was only $10 in at that time. I was aware of the odds, but the fact that I wasn't at all invested in the hand made me sway toward folding (had I been a bit more in the pot, I likely would've swayed the other way...like you say, statistically it was kinda close).

-JP
Doesn't matter what you're "in" for. Once the money is spent, it's in the pot. The decision is whether your cards and your outs warrant calling the big bet. In this case, it appears that you had the odds to make a call. 77 is the only had I'd really fear at that point.
Old 02-22-06, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by actyper
I don't think you should be including your bet in your odds calculations. The way you're doing it, every pot odd would start at 2:1.
It's tough to say based on the description how much $ was in the pot - we don't get the limit, and know only that "six or so" people saw the flop. Until we know the numbers, we can't be sure what his pot odds were. Also, if there were players yet to act behind him, the possibility of them calling the bet could impact the odds he was getting.

Incomplete picture here. But it's a close decision either way.
Old 02-22-06, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by actyper
I don't think you should be including your bet in your odds calculations. The way you're doing it, every pot odd would start at 2:1.
My point is that after the original all in, and the caller, that money is in the pot, and he is getting the 2:1 that I would require to be in the pot to make the call.
Old 02-22-06, 04:54 PM
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No problem, just making sure your not adding some extra in there when your making those decisions.
Old 02-22-06, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Mrs.Nesbit
I wouldn't have called. I am afraid of someone holding 89d, A5d, 109d, or 77. Not gonna put my money in when I know I don't have the best hand and others might be drawing to a bigger hand.
I'd love to play some holdem with you. I love a scared player. What sites do you frequent?
Old 02-22-06, 11:20 PM
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Currently the prima sites. I mostly play stud .50/$1. My screen name there is Skrazem.
Old 02-23-06, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by mgbfan
Doesn't matter what you're "in" for. Once the money is spent, it's in the pot. The decision is whether your cards and your outs warrant calling the big bet. In this case, it appears that you had the odds to make a call. 77 is the only had I'd really fear at that point.
Yeah, but if the money isn't spent, then it's still in your bankroll and not in the pot...and when I'm not at all invested in a hand, I'm less likely to chase outs when I know that I'm behind. I've often heard the old cliche of "when the money is in the pot, it's not yours anymore." That's fine, but I didn't (and still wouldn't) play this hand with that in mind. If I have virtually nothing invested in this pot and I know that I'm making a borderline EV call drawing from behind, I'm a lot less likely to chase that borderline EV catch than if I had already dropped $50 or $60 into the hand (and was looking at the same odds). If that doesn't factor into your close decisions, that's fine...but it does mine.

-JP
Old 02-23-06, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by NatrlBornThrllr
If that doesn't factor into your close decisions, that's fine...but it does mine.
That's the beauty of poker. We all have different ways of playing.

Some don't take that into consideration while others do. Some people put a lot of weight on the pot odds and the EV while others give those less weight and give more weight on the read.
Old 02-23-06, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by namja
That's the beauty of poker. We all have different ways of playing.

Some don't take that into consideration while others do. Some people put a lot of weight on the pot odds and the EV while others give those less weight and give more weight on the read.

When playing online, you almost have to take a stronger value on pot odds, because you do not have many reads on the player to go on.
Old 02-23-06, 04:52 PM
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Sure you do...maybe not physical reads, but I can definitely pick up tells on players by their betting styles and the hands that they take to showdowns. My notes on players have come in handy many a time.

-JP
Old 02-27-06, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by NatrlBornThrllr
If I have virtually nothing invested in this pot and I know that I'm making a borderline EV call drawing from behind, I'm a lot less likely to chase that borderline EV catch than if I had already dropped $50 or $60 into the hand (and was looking at the same odds). If that doesn't factor into your close decisions, that's fine...but it does mine.
That's fine. But by the numbers, all that really matters is: Does the payoff justify the odds I'm getting?

"Pot investment" isn't a factor. It's already built into the equation.
Old 02-27-06, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by mgbfan
That's fine. But by the numbers, all that really matters is: Does the payoff justify the odds I'm getting?

"Pot investment" isn't a factor. It's already built into the equation.
Again, if you take that's 'all that really matters' for you, great. It's just not how I did, do, or would approach a decision in that situation.

-JP
Old 02-27-06, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Mrs.Nesbit
I wouldn't have called. I am afraid of someone holding 89d, A5d, 109d, or 77. Not gonna put my money in when I know I don't have the best hand and others might be drawing to a bigger hand.
I am going to reply to this... After rereading the thread, it started to bug me. You mean to tell us that you have NEVER chased a draw, when you might not have the best hand? I find that hard to imagine. You have never chased an open ended or double gutshot straight draw? Others could be drawing to a bigger hand than you in nearly EVERY hand that you will ever play.

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