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Question about Odds and Calling Bets

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Question about Odds and Calling Bets

Old 02-20-05, 08:02 PM
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Question about Odds and Calling Bets

Quick question for those that know and utilize pot odds when calling bets. For this example lets assume you have 5 outs to make the best hand.

From the Flop to the River your chances are 4:1 or 20%. So if the pot+bet is equal to $120 and you are faced with calling a $10 bet, you can call since the pot is laying much better than the 4:1 odds than you need to call.

Now lets say you do not hit any of your 5 outs on the turn and now your faced with calling a $20 bet with the pot+bet being $130. You are now roughly an 8:1 or 11% shot to make it on the river. Now the pot is not laying you correct odds to call (Pot is < $162.00), so you fold.

That's pretty clear cut.... but what if you knew that you would likely be bet into again on the turn regardless of what card hit. Would it be incorrect to figure you odds for calling both the turn and flop bet, which would allow you to correctly call with less money in the pot at the turn?

Ex.

You are on a $10/$20 table. There is $120 in the pot and you have to call a $10 bet while drawing to 5 outs. You know that regardless of what turns on 4th street, you will be bet into again. So rather than calculating the pot odds are for calling a $10 bet, could you calculate it at $30 ($10 on the flop + $20 on the turn) to give you proper odds of calling both a flop and turn bet? In the previous example you needed the pot to contain $40.00 to call a flop bet and $162.00 to call a turn bet. In this example the pot on the flop is laying correct odds to call the combined bet amount of the flop and turn, not counting any implied odds if you make your draw. Seeing as how the pot size on the flop will rarely contain enough to justify this type of call, is my thinking flawed by calling on the turn for a single bet?
Old 02-20-05, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Spy021
hat's pretty clear cut.... but what if you knew that you would likely be bet into again on the turn regardless of what card hit. Would it be incorrect to figure you odds for calling both the turn and flop bet, which would allow you to correctly call with less money in the pot at the turn?
Once that turn card comes, you make the proper decision based on the current situation, not based on the situation one card ago. There are occasions where it's correct to call the flop but not the turn. Don't try to rationalize a bad call by telling yourself that if you take everything together, it's a good call. You make the best decision based on the situation at hand.

That said, your best bet would be to forget about pot odds and study up on implied odds, because that's all that matters here. Too many novices learn about pot odds and think that's all they need to know. Fact is that in limit hold'em, pot odds are all but worthless EXCEPT as a basis for determining implied odds.

Originally Posted by Spy021
You are on a $10/$20 table. There is $120 in the pot and you have to call a $10 bet while drawing to 5 outs.
If this is the case, it's a multi-way pot, not a heads-up pot, so your below scenario falls apart.

Originally Posted by Spy021
You know that regardless of what turns on 4th street, you will be bet into again. So rather than calculating the pot odds are for calling a $10 bet, could you calculate it at $30 ($10 on the flop + $20 on the turn) to give you proper odds of calling both a flop and turn bet?
You'll also have to calculate for all of the other callers, as the pot you've described is not a heads-up pot.
Old 02-21-05, 01:01 PM
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I think I see where youíre going with this.

Pot odds are correct to call on the flop, but you know the pot wonít be big enough to call the turn if you donít make your draw. Yes?

Thatís a good question. Seems to me you canít call the turn bet, if youíre gonna take pot odds as gospel.
Old 02-23-05, 04:47 PM
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I realize that my described scenario is far from ideal, as I was having a hard time putting my thoughts into words. I'm am familiar with pot odds and implied odds so I do understand the logic in mgbfan's reply. It just seems like there are sometimes that the pot is big enough on the flop that it lays proper odds to call a bet equal to that of both a small (PF & Flop) and big (Turn & River) bet. If that is the case and you can clearly show a expecation even by calling a bet 2 1/2 times the flop bet, I presumed that it couldn't be all that incorrect to call the turn bet even if the pot didn't lay the correct odds. Of course, this may all be moot if you factor in implied odds...

It was just a thought....
Old 02-23-05, 09:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Spy021
Of course, this may all be moot if you factor in implied odds...
I think this may be what you were wanting to get at all along.

Straight-up - you play the numbers. If the implied odds are in your favor, draw to your hand. If they are not ... at ANY point in the betting ... drop the cards. Do not draw to hands when the implied odds don't warrent it, just because they did warrent it one card ago.

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