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poll: Bush Edges Ahead of Kerry for the 1st Time [merged]

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poll: Bush Edges Ahead of Kerry for the 1st Time [merged]

Old 08-26-04, 11:57 AM
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poll: Bush Edges Ahead of Kerry for the 1st Time

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...yforthe1sttime

WASHINGTON — President Bush (news - web sites) heads into next week's Republican National Convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that Sen. John F. Kerry (news, bio, voting record) has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Times poll has found.
Old 08-26-04, 11:58 AM
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Interesting news heading into the convention, but it's a pre-October poll: it doesn't mean a lot.
Old 08-26-04, 11:59 AM
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Originally posted by Chew
Interesting news heading into the convention, but it's a pre-October poll: doesn't mean a lot.
It doesn't. But it also tells you the convention did next to nothing for Kerry.
Old 08-26-04, 12:05 PM
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I am suprised that the swiftboat/Vietnam thing is getting some credit. I can't believe anyone cares.
Old 08-26-04, 12:07 PM
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Originally posted by kvrdave
I am suprised that the swiftboat/Vietnam thing is getting some credit. I can't believe anyone cares.
Apparently enough people do, or Kerry wouldn't be trying to hard to refute it.
Old 08-26-04, 12:07 PM
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Originally posted by kvrdave
I am suprised that the swiftboat/Vietnam thing is getting some credit. I can't believe anyone cares.

I know of more than a few veterans that do.
Old 08-26-04, 12:08 PM
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The two important things to consider about this poll is that it is an L.A. Times poll and that it is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. So to put it perspective add some points for Bush which likely would put him ahead beyond the margin of error.
Old 08-26-04, 12:11 PM
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Originally posted by Pharoh
I know of more than a few veterans that do.
I do too, but none of them have changed their minds. They think today the same as they thought about him in 1972, effectively.

Do you know of any that have changed their minds?
Old 08-26-04, 12:13 PM
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Originally posted by kvrdave
I do too, but none of them have changed their minds. They think today the same as they thought about him in 1972, effectively.

Do you know of any that have changed their minds?

Yes, I know of three who are not going to vote for Mr. Kerry because of this. Only one is going to vote for Mr. Bush, but I can live with that.
Old 08-26-04, 12:13 PM
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If we're to believe a recent veterans-only poll I've seen, then yeah: some veterans have changed their minds because of this. Bush now has a pretty good lead among the veterans where he was behind before the Swift Vets drama started.
Old 08-26-04, 12:17 PM
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Originally posted by X
The two important things to consider about this poll is that it is an L.A. Times poll and that it is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. So to put it perspective add some points for Bush which likely would put him ahead beyond the margin of error.
Except that if you look at polling results across several polls and over a period of time the trend is for surveys that include only likely voters to favor Kerry more strongly than those that include registered voters.
Old 08-26-04, 12:17 PM
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There are a lot of veterans in Florida.
Old 08-26-04, 12:18 PM
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Originally posted by Captain Pike
Except that if you look at polling results across several polls and over a period of time the trend is for surveys that include only likely voters to favor Kerry more strongly than those that include registered voters.
Knowing your accuracy ratio I would have to see proof that.
Old 08-26-04, 12:18 PM
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There was a bounce after the dem convention, but unfortunately, the bounce was for Bush.
Old 08-26-04, 12:27 PM
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Originally posted by X
Knowing your accuracy ratio I would have to see proof that.
Old 08-26-04, 12:39 PM
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Originally posted by X
Knowing your accuracy ratio I would have to see proof that.
www.pollingreport.com
Old 08-26-04, 12:39 PM
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People are stupid.
Old 08-26-04, 12:40 PM
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L.A. Times poll!
Old 08-26-04, 12:42 PM
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Originally posted by Captain Pike
www.pollingreport.com
I think you should point out the particular polls that support your contention.
Old 08-26-04, 12:47 PM
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Originally posted by Comfort Eagle
People are stupid.
I'll be nice and say People are ignorant
Old 08-26-04, 01:02 PM
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Originally posted by Venusian
I'll be nice and say People are ignorant
I'll be nicer and say people are uninformed.

Now, I really am tired of all this arrogance from both sides. It seems like a lot of people have the attitude, "If you were as smart as me, or as well informed as me, you think the same way as me." It's really tiresome.
Old 08-26-04, 01:06 PM
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I agree, different people have different views and priorities. Just because they don't think exactly as you(generic you, not specific you) don't get upset.
Old 08-26-04, 06:48 PM
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Originally posted by Captain Pike
Except that if you look at polling results across several polls and over a period of time the trend is for surveys that include only likely voters to favor Kerry more strongly than those that include registered voters.
Bolded and enlarged section is for the Captain...

Poll: Bush has slim lead over Kerry
By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — President Bush enters his convention week holding a slight lead over Democrat John Kerry and regaining ground he lost after the Democratic convention on the key issues of handling terrorism and Iraq, a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.

In a head-to-head matchup, Bush led Kerry 50%-47% among likely voters, while Kerry led Bush 48%-47% among registered voters. When independent Ralph Nader is included, Bush leads Kerry, 48%-46%, among likely voters. Nader gets 4%.

The poll of 1,004 adults, conducted Monday through Wednesday, had a margin of error of +/3 percentage points. The margin was +/4 points for the subgroups of registered and likely voters.

Bush's favorable rating of 54% was his highest since April. By contrast, Kerry's 52% was his lowest since January.

Bush dominated on personal traits such as "honest and trustworthy" and "stands up for what he believes in." But Kerry continued to lead Bush when people were asked who would better handle taxes, education, Medicare and the economy.

Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said he is elated by Bush's standing going into Monday's convention. "No challenger has ever won going into the incumbent's convention behind," he said. He added that Kerry's convention appears to have had no impact.

The encouraging signs for Bush came as Kerry's Vietnam War record was under attack by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. The attacks, though most have not been substantiated, appear to have contributed to the slippage in Kerry's numbers on national security issues.

At the same time, the poll found that most people, 63%, think Kerry is definitely or probably telling the truth about his military service. Half say Bush is very or somewhat responsible for the ads the group is running, although Bush and his campaign have denied any involvement. And 56% say Bush should denounce the ads.

Pollster Mark Mellman, a senior Kerry adviser, says the poll shows "the vast majority of Americans understand that this smear against John Kerry is in fact untrue. They hold President Bush responsible for it." Mellman also said that based on individual state polls, Kerry is ahead in states with 320 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 to win the presidency.

The Democratic convention focused squarely on Kerry's heroics in Vietnam and his support among veterans and retired military brass. He closed some gaps with Bush on security issues immediately afterwards, but the new poll shows those gains vanishing. Among the findings:

• Bush leads Kerry 49%-43% on who would handle Iraq better. Kerry was ahead 48%-47% right after the convention.

• Bush leads Kerry 54%-37% on who would handle terrorism better. Kerry had risen to 41% after his convention.

• Bush leads Kerry 54%-34% on who people think is "a strong and decisive leader." Kerry had halved that lead to 10 points right after the convention.

http://usatoday.printthis.clickabili...partnerID=1660
Old 08-26-04, 06:56 PM
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Wow. This is the poll everybody in the Beltway was waiting for. 54% approval is outstanding, all things considered. I had expected not much change, maybe up to 52% at best. Wonder what the spin will be?
Old 08-26-04, 07:01 PM
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Poll: Presidential race remains dead heat
Kerry convention gains blunted


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The November presidential race between President Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry remains a statistical tie, with Kerry holding a single-point edge among registered voters, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

The survey of 876 registered voters found Kerry leading Bush 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error in that poll, conducted August 23-25, was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Among the 709 people determined to be likely voters, Bush held a three-point lead over Kerry, 50 to 47 percent -- a figure unchanged since the last poll, three weeks ago. The margin of error among likely voters was 4 percentage points.

Asked what they thought of how Bush was handling his job as president, 49 percent of the total survey said they approved; 47 said they disapproved.

When independent Ralph Nader was added into the mix, Bush led Kerry by a 48-46 margin among likely voters, with 4 percent supporting Nader. The major-party candidates were tied at 46 percent among registered voters, with Nader drawing 4 percent again.

The poll was taken as Kerry attempted to fend off attacks on his Vietnam war record by a group calling itself Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which has accused Kerry of lying to win combat decorations during the conflict and criticized his role in the antiwar movement after he returned home.

The survey indicates the ads and the controversy surrounding them may have helped Bush blunt any boost Kerry received since the Democratic National Convention, particularly on national security issues.

But they appear to have had little impact on the overall horse race, and the poll found that half of all adults hold Bush responsible for the anti-Kerry veterans' campaign.

Before the convention, when Kerry accepted the party's presidential nomination, Bush led Kerry by an 8 percentage-point margin -- 51 to 43 -- on the question of who would be a better commander-in-chief. After the convention, Bush and Kerry were tied at 48 percent apiece, but in the latest poll, the numbers returned to the same pre-convention margin.

Similar patterns emerged when voters were asked about which candidate would better handle the war in Iraq, where respondents preferred Bush 49 percent to 43 percent, and the global antiterror campaign, where Bush led Kerry 54-37.

Only 22 percent said Kerry's military service made them more likely to vote for him in November -- more evidence that the Swift Boat ads have neutralized the Massachusetts senator's military record as an asset. But 63 percent said Kerry is telling the truth about his military record, suggesting that most of those polled discount the charges raised by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

The group is an independent "527" committee funded largely by Republican contributors from President Bush's home state of Texas. Its claims about Kerry's military record are contradicted by official Navy records, other veterans and, in some cases, by past statements from group members themselves.

Kerry accuses the group of being a front for the Bush campaign, an allegation Bush aides have strongly denied. The Democrat has called on Bush to disavow the ads, but Bush -- who has been the target of millions of dollars in advertising by Democratic-backed 527s -- has called instead for an end to all independent attack ads.

Among those surveyed in the latest poll, 56 percent said Bush should denounce the ads, and 50 percent said they consider him responsible for them. Forty-eight percent said they think Kerry has been the victim of unfair Republican attacks, while 43 percent say Democrats have attacked Bush unfairly.

The favorable ratings for Kerry and his running mate, Sen. John Edwards, have dropped since August 1, with 52 percent saying they view both Kerry and Edwards favorably now. Bush's favorable rating was at 54 percent, while only 44 percent said they viewed Vice President Dick Cheney favorably. Poor Dick

But the Swift Boat Veterans ad campaign may have dampened public enthusiasm for voting this year as well: In the August 23-25 poll, only 60 percent said they were enthusiastic about voting compared with 69 percent who said they were enthusiastic about casting their vote in surveys after the Democratic convention.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...oll/index.html

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