CDs Gone in 5 Years?
 

From Annova.com

CDs 'could be history in five years'

Compact discs could be history within five years, superseded by a new generation of fingertip-sized memory tabs with no moving parts.

Scientists say each paper-thin device could store more than a gigabyte of information - equivalent to 1,000 high quality images - in one cubic centimetre of space.

Experts have developed the technology by melding together organic and inorganic materials in a unique way.

They say it could be used to produce a single-use memory card that permanently stores data and is faster and easier to operate than a CD.

It's claimed that turning the invention into a commercially viable product might take as little as five years.

The card would not involve any moving parts, such as the laser and motor drive required by compact discs. Its secret is the discovery of a previously unknown property of a commonly-used conductive plastic coating.

US scientists at Princeton University, New Jersey, and computer giants Hewlett-Packard combined the polymer with very thin-film, silicon-based electronics.

The device would be like a standard CD-R (CD-recordable) disc in that writing data onto it makes permanent changes and can only be done once. But it would also resemble a computer memory chip, because it would plug directly into an electronic circuit and have no moving parts.

A report in the journal Nature described how the researchers identified a new property of a polymer called PEDOT.

PEDOT, which is clear and conducts electricity, has been used for years as an anti-static coating on photographic film. Researchers looked at ways of using PEDOT to store digital information. In the new memory card, data in the form of ones and zeroes would be represented by polymer pixels.

When information is recorded, higher voltages at certain points in the circuit grid would "blow" the PEDOT fuses at those points. As a result, data is permanently etched into the device. A blown fuse would from then on be read as a zero, while an unblown one that lets current pass through is read as a one.

There is NO WAY that this a viable medium. CD player sales are great business. This does NOT seem like a portable medium. And I can tell you right now that I won't be rebuying 300 CDs worth of music. I think CDs are a good medium, copyright issues aside. I lose CDs often, I can't image how many of these things I'd lose.

How do you lose cds? I have around 500 and have never lost one.

As for replacing cds in five years - thats a pipe dream.

Not going to happen. They tried that with Mini discs, which I actually have. It's true, they don't skip or get scratched and can hold 5 hours of audio with some player/recored units...hmmm...why didn't these catch on? They're actually better than cd-r's in those aspecs. They should just stick with recordable mini discs and all the forms of cd's they have now. (runs to store to get a new mini disc recorder that stores 5 hours of music on a disc!)

I've lost a few, as well. It doesn't happen often, but they get misplaced, borrowed (and forgotten), people walk away with them, end up with roommates when we part ways, etc. If it's a mainstream title, I can usually replace it with a used copy.

Back on topic, CDs will surely be replaced one day, but I don't think it'll be anytime soon. CD-ROMs, DVDs, CDs and all their recordable counterparts all use the same physical size disc (with the exception of those 3" discs). It seems that that is the preferred size right now.

The Minidisc example's a good one. That never caught on because no one besides Sony adopted it. EVERYONE's going to have to jump aboard the new format for it to succeed.

I don't think any media is going to replace CDs, I think that the entire atom-based distribution of any media will soon be dead. Why aren't retail outlets simply downloading media software and cover art and producing stuff to order already? Think of the savings in retail space leasing fees. Why buy any media at all, why not just go to a kiosk or online with an Ipod and dl some stuff, whether it's music, mpeg video or some future hi-def codec? Once digital rights management is ironed out, media companies will leap at the chance to eliminate the entire supply chain. To our kids, the idea of a record store, book store or dvd store will seem ridiculously laughable.

Read Being Digital by Nicolas Negroponte. That guy figured this all out ten years ago.

Until MP3's and other formats improve in quality dramatically I see these things replacing CD's. CD's replaced LPs and tapes because they offered better sound quality. If this new format offers much better sound quality at a good price then I can see people switching. And if the music companies increase the quality by such a margin that it will take a long time to rip music, transfer it over the internet and for it to take up a lot of space then so much the better for them.

I don't see CDs being replaced for a very long time.

What's the advantage to a new format?

LPs were supplanted by cassettes. Why? Portability.

Cassettes were supplanted by CDs? Why? Better sound, more durable.

Will this new format have better sound? Probably not, for the simple reason that CDs could have better sound, but don't. See the thread on the AC/DC re-re-releases for more info. They'll likely make the same mistakes with this new format that they did with the old one.

The only advantage a new format -- almost any new format -- would have over the CD is capacity. But I have a feeling that the music studios like the CD capacity as is, for the simple reason that they can spread longer releases over multiple discs. If they releases the equivalent of a four-CD set onto one disc or chip, the consumer WILL balk at the $60.00 price tag for something that appears identical to the $15.00 item, despite the expanded content.

If I'm not mistaken CD's are recorded in 2 channel stereo. Any rereleases in a new format won't sound much better. But any new releases can have DD or DTS quality audio and probably other material that is accessible by computer.

I think that just as audiophiles jumped on CD's 20 years ago because of the better sound, they will buy any new format because of better sound quality. Since it took years for CD's to finally kill off the cassette, it may take that long for any new format to kill off a CD.

Cds will be the mainstream for at least 10 more years,Cds will also last longer then tapes,A-tracks,Lps ever did.

everyone brought up valid points, but what about cover art? I mean, that was a big thing with cassettes and cds because the cover art was not as extensive and couldnt be seen as well. Can you imagine how the little amount of art we'd get with a freakin chip?

They'd package it in a a big cardboard box like they used to sell CD to get your attention.

You will need some kind of packaging for the chip to make it interface with the stereo, PC or whatever. They can make that as big as they want.

and cover art gets even smaller...
even if there is a new format, It will be at least 15 years before it completely replaced CDs in sales. Hell, CDs are older than that and tons of cars still come with tape decks.

I'll stick with my minidisks for the time being.

It's going to happen someday, but definetely not in five years.

This is one of the most misleading headlines I've ever seen. There's a HUGE difference between

"It's claimed that turning the invention into a commercially viable product might take as little as five years"

and

"CDs could be history in five years"

You must not read alot of newspapers.

NOTHING will replace VHS! DVDs? Yeah right, just another fad. Only audio and videophiles wll even bother.

I've misplaced CDs when transporting. For instance, taking some to work, then back home tossed them in my husband's trunk and forgot. This was last week---I'm frantic because I couldn't find about 10 CDs, then remembered.

Anyway, I remember when mini-disc came out I started to put down the $500.00 for the player thinking that CDs would be gone soon. Glad I didn't.