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Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

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View Poll Results: How will Avatar 2 do at the box office?
It’ll smash records and become the new all-time box office champion
5
7.46%
It will do well, but not huge numbers
47
70.15%
It will do mediocre but big numbers outside the US
5
7.46%
It will do poorly everywhere
2
2.99%
I honestly have no idea
3
4.48%
I’m waiting for Titanic 2
5
7.46%
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll

Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Old 01-23-23, 02:38 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by GoldenJCJ View Post
^ If I recall, most of Titanic’s repeat business at the B.O. was teenage girls going to see Leo. I’m not sure a movie has grabbed that demo so strongly before or since.
Back in the day of AOL chatrooms, it was really easy to guess the password of any user that had a screenname associated with Titanic.

I do think it's funny that they're re-releasing Titanic in 3D for its 25th anniversary.
Old 01-23-23, 05:03 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by GoldenJCJ View Post
^ If I recall, most of Titanic’s repeat business at the B.O. was teenage girls going to see Leo. I’m not sure a movie has grabbed that demo so strongly before or since.
I remember when I first saw Titanic, all the teenage girls kept screaming and crying when Leo appeared. After an hour I could not take it anymore and I threw them out of my apartment.

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Old 01-23-23, 05:28 PM
  #203  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

I think it was a good break from MCU. People obviously wanted to see something that broke technological grounds (forget story) and this was and continues to be it.
Old 01-24-23, 12:13 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by dex14 View Post
I agree. The biggest reason for that is TWoW made $1.5 billion internationally (which is the total WW gross of Maverick). It's a much bigger deal in other places outside of the US (like Asia). People saw it in the US because that was basically the only thing to see in theatres during the holidays and following weeks. I highly doubt anyone who saw TWoW walked out feeling as amazed as they did if they saw Maverick.

I think an Oscar Best Picture nomination for this would be such a waste.
I definitely did (could have been the edible I popped before entering the theater). No but really, I mostly kept away from any discussion of WoW and I heard nothing but raves about Maverick and I thought it was just a neat plane movie with a bunch of military propaganda like the first one. WoW is also propaganda, but for my team
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Old 01-24-23, 09:14 PM
  #205  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

I keep wondering if Avatar appeals mostly to a big demographic that's outside of everyone we know? But this isn't the only $billion+ franchise that perplexes me as to why it's so successful. For some reason, everyone online acts like it is though.
Old 01-24-23, 09:58 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by IBJoel View Post
I definitely did (could have been the edible I popped before entering the theater). No but really, I mostly kept away from any discussion of WoW and I heard nothing but raves about Maverick and I thought it was just a neat plane movie with a bunch of military propaganda like the first one. WoW is also propaganda, but for my team
That was much the same that I thought about Maverick. I still can't believe the reception it has received.

Originally Posted by rennervision View Post
I keep wondering if Avatar appeals mostly to a big demographic that's outside of everyone we know? But this isn't the only $billion+ franchise that perplexes me as to why it's so successful. For some reason, everyone online acts like it is though.
I know no one who watches the Fast and the Furious movies, but they certainly keep pumping them out. People must be watching them.
Old 01-24-23, 10:02 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Has anyone here seen this more than once in the theater? Or was once enough?
Old 01-24-23, 10:18 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

I'm a one and done, same as with the first, and that's total viewings in any format. Both movies so far seem like phenomena; like the Super Bowl. Lots of people watch just because it seems like they are supposed to.

I also feel like part of why the movies don't linger in the consciouness after the movies have run their course is because in the end, it's hard to relate to a wide-faced, cat-eyed 15-foot-tall alien.

Last edited by Kurt D; 01-24-23 at 10:53 PM.
Old 01-24-23, 10:21 PM
  #209  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by DJariya View Post
Has anyone here seen this more than once in the theater? Or was once enough?

Twice. The first time was in Dolby Cinema and the second time was IMAX.

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Old 01-25-23, 02:12 PM
  #210  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by johnnysd View Post
I think it comes at the right time, sort of at the Super Hero burnout phase, and the lingering effect of Covid on movie theaters and I think people are looking for the next Blockbuster. It is likely to be the best looking movie ever made, and from the reviews seems like a better movie overall than the first so I suspect it will become an even film and get insane amounts of box office. Cameron knows what audiences want and it seems every time a movie comes out from him we forget that a bit. It also is in China which is huge. There was not a Top 4 overall BO option so I chose #1 and would not be surprised if it got there. The re-release of Avatar itself was pretty big. Would be shocking if it is anything other than a mega hit. Now Avatar 3, 4 and 5 get trickier but Avatar 2 will be gigantic I think
My prediction was pretty spot on. It was just perfectly timed. I personally totally get the appeal of these movies. Yes the story is simplistic and the themes totally in your face at times, but both Avatar movies show you something you have never seen before. Although they were much better movies it is what made LOTR so popular, and at one point superhero movies as well
Old 01-25-23, 02:33 PM
  #211  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by DJariya View Post
Has anyone here seen this more than once in the theater? Or was once enough?
I only watched it once but I don't go to many movies that regularly so that's actually a lot for us.
Old 01-31-23, 06:37 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by GoldenJCJ View Post
^ If I recall, most of Titanic’s repeat business at the B.O. was teenage girls going to see Leo. I’m not sure a movie has grabbed that demo so strongly before or since.
Old people. Don't forget old people. They were seeing it in droves as well. Definitely drew people out that didn't usually watch movies. Titanic was a verifiable phenomena when it comes to movies. I mean there's still such a renewed interest in the Titanic that still continues today that I think would have faded a while ago if it weren't for the movie.
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Old 01-31-23, 07:20 AM
  #213  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
What's weird is even though it has already surpassed Top Gun Maverick at the Box Office, that film feels like it was a bigger hit - - more enthusiasm, more dominant in the culture, more Oscar buzz.
Way of Water is a huge hit that weirdly doesn't feel like a huge hit.
I was going to mention how Maverick made so much more at the domestic BO then Avatar but Avatar is up to 620 already vs. Top Gun's 718. So it's not as large of a spread than I thought.

I dunno it's a mystery. I think the biggest mystery is how it must be doing repeat business but with a really long run time. I know Endgame had a really long time...Well I guess Titanic had a really long run time as well. You know what, I think that whole theory that a movie can't do well with a long run time is totally bogus. Simply put if you make a movie people want to see it will do gangbusters at the BO.
Old 01-31-23, 07:52 AM
  #214  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by tanman View Post
I was going to mention how Maverick made so much more at the domestic BO then Avatar but Avatar is up to 620 already vs. Top Gun's 718. So it's not as large of a spread than I thought.

I dunno it's a mystery. I think the biggest mystery is how it must be doing repeat business but with a really long run time. I know Endgame had a really long time...Well I guess Titanic had a really long run time as well. You know what, I think that whole theory that a movie can't do well with a long run time is totally bogus. Simply put if you make a movie people want to see it will do gangbusters at the BO.
Case in point: When adjusted for inflation, still the highest BO is Gone With the Wind and that clocks in at nearly 4 hours (granted with an intermission).
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Old 01-31-23, 10:41 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

I mean what else was there to do in olden times?
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Old 01-31-23, 10:47 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by fujishig View Post
I mean what else was there to do in olden times?
IKR! Especially without pr0n.
Old 01-31-23, 11:45 AM
  #217  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Gone with the Wind was from a time before home video and television, so they only people could see the movie was at a theater. I would be that movie had some serious legs, unlike modern movies that play in theaters for a month and then hit streaming, and was probably playing in theaters for years.
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Old 01-31-23, 11:47 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Top Gun’s domestic achievement is much more impressive given its release time - the heart of the summer movie season. As others have mentioned, there’s not much else to see right now. And the 3D premium helps Avatar’s BO. These dollar amount comparisons are stupid IMO. Tickets sold - butts in seats. That’s how you judge popularity.

Avatar is an amusement park ride. People talk about the experience right after but ultimately it’s an ephemeral experience.
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Old 01-31-23, 01:05 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

“Not much else to see” doesn’t account for making 620 million or crossing 2 billion. And the fact that there’s not much else is precisely because every other movie got the hell out of Avatar’s way when planning their schedules. If James Cameron today decided to release Avatar 3 in the middle of summer 2024, people would be scrambling to adjust their schedules right now.

People aren’t randomly watching Avatar just for the hell of it. Similar to Top Gun but on a worldwide scale, it’s one of those movies that gets people who haven’t seen a movie in theaters in ten years out of the house specifically for it.

Last edited by bluetoast; 01-31-23 at 01:11 PM.
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Old 01-31-23, 01:24 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by bunkaroo View Post
These dollar amount comparisons are stupid IMO. Tickets sold - butts in seats. That’s how you judge popularity.
Do any sites list the tickets sold? I would much rather see that alongside the box office money.
Old 01-31-23, 01:26 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Throwing Copper View Post
Do any sites list the tickets sold? I would much rather see that alongside the box office money.
This does (somewhat of an approximation), but it looks like it's domestic only.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/..._gross_to=2022
Old 01-31-23, 01:32 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by The Cow View Post
This does (somewhat of an approximation), but it looks like it's domestic only.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/..._gross_to=2022
Boxofficemojo also calculates inflation at the time of release even if the movie has had multiple releases, which will lead to inaccuracies, starting with the inflation adjusted numbers and compounded when estimating ticket sales. This seems especially apparent with Gone With the Wind, which has a drop-down for all releases. It had numerous re-releases several times before 1989, which is the next available re-release figure. Every release combined is then inflation-calculated into 1939 dollars, which makes no sense.

Last edited by bluetoast; 01-31-23 at 01:39 PM.
Old 01-31-23, 01:57 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

The only stories I see these days on Avatar is box office, box office, box office. No one is really talking about the quality of the movie, the characters. Seems like people watch it and quickly forget about it.
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Old 01-31-23, 02:15 PM
  #224  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by DJariya View Post
The only stories I see these days on Avatar is box office, box office, box office. No one is really talking about the quality of the movie, the characters. Seems like people watch it and quickly forget about it.
That’s because there’s nothing to talk about. The irony is for a movie made for 3D, the characters are decidedly two-dimensional. This movie wouldn’t be a blip on the radar if it weren’t for the visuals. That can be said about a lot of movies of course.

To me this franchise is “best of the worst” in that regard. It will never touch movies like Avengers Infinity War/Endgame or Lord of the Rings which have amazing visuals AND compelling characters and story.

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Old 01-31-23, 11:09 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by bluetoast View Post
“Not much else to see” doesn’t account for making 620 million or crossing 2 billion. And the fact that there’s not much else is precisely because every other movie got the hell out of Avatar’s way when planning their schedules. If James Cameron today decided to release Avatar 3 in the middle of summer 2024, people would be scrambling to adjust their schedules right now.

People aren’t randomly watching Avatar just for the hell of it. Similar to Top Gun but on a worldwide scale, it’s one of those movies that gets people who haven’t seen a movie in theaters in ten years out of the house specifically for it.
Seriously. Talking like Avatar 2 is some flash in the pan hit that only made money because there is nothing else to see is absurd. Or because there's some $2-$3 up charge on tickets. Just because "you" (in general, not you bluetoast) don't give a shit about Avatar doesn't mean other people don't. Movies don't just accidentally make $2 billion dollars or they'd all make that much. It's an "Event" movie that people want to see on the big screen, just like Maverick before it.

Also, your very last point is valid (at least on an anecdotal level). My daughter works at the theater and she told me she had a family seeing Avatar that had never seen reclining seats at a theater before. We've had them for at at least a decade here. No two ways about it, Cameron puts asses in seats and downplaying it because one didn't like the movie, just makes them look silly at this point.
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