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Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

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View Poll Results: How will Avatar 2 do at the box office?
It’ll smash records and become the new all-time box office champion
5
7.46%
It will do well, but not huge numbers
47
70.15%
It will do mediocre but big numbers outside the US
5
7.46%
It will do poorly everywhere
2
2.99%
I honestly have no idea
3
4.48%
I’m waiting for Titanic 2
5
7.46%
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll

Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Old 12-19-22, 09:34 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

From Indiewire:
"Movie Theater Stocks Plummet After Modest Avatar 2 Opening Weekend"
https://www.indiewire.com/2022/12/av...IKJpcM5BT4S0h8

The article's not really long enough to adequately explain the connection. Let's hope that a more substantial industry analysis eventually appears.
Old 12-19-22, 10:44 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Deftones View Post
His movies never open big. They just have staying power. Next weekend is the true indicator of if this is going to be a dud.
This is one thing I don't understand with the coverage for the BO for A:WoW. Everyone knows that his movies don't open big but tend to have massive staying power. Especially around the holidays. Now I know this is a sequel so word of mouth will be a little different then either Titanic or Avatar but still. To predict either doom and gloom or middling results this early based on estimates for the weekend is just a little much. But media coverage has changed a lot since the last Avatar and clickbaits gotta clickbait I guess.
Old 12-19-22, 10:51 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Movie-going habits have changed a metric ton since 2009 too. Hard to predict what will happen.
Old 12-20-22, 09:16 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

3D isn’t a draw at all anymore, it’s a sequel to a property no one really seemed to be clamoring for, reviews seem to be “it looks nice but…” and people still aren't going to the movies like they used to. I’m not surprised at all it didn’t blow the doors off the place.

Like I said I’ll get to it eventually but I certainly didn’t feel pressure to get out there opening weekend.
Old 12-20-22, 09:53 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by tanman View Post
This is one thing I don't understand with the coverage for the BO for A:WoW. Everyone knows that his movies don't open big but tend to have massive staying power. Especially around the holidays. Now I know this is a sequel so word of mouth will be a little different then either Titanic or Avatar but still. To predict either doom and gloom or middling results this early based on estimates for the weekend is just a little much. But media coverage has changed a lot since the last Avatar and clickbaits gotta clickbait I guess.
Cameron has only made 2 non-documentaries in the 25 years since Titanic. His last movie was 13 years ago. Most young film-goers probably have no clue who James Cameron is. Statements like "everyone knows his movies don't open big but tend to have massive staying power" are completely irrelevant in the 2022 marketplace. That's not to say this won't have staying power, but projecting Avatar 2's box office based on something that happened in 1997 is kind of ludicrous.
Old 12-20-22, 10:05 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?


I love the guy.

Also it's obvious those are not fans, but rather just paparazzi getting autographs to hock on eBay.

I skipped the first weekend because, well, I don't like people. I'm more of a 10AM empty theater kind of guy. Gonna hit up my local luxury theater this week. Managed to avoid spoilers, even when tempted with the little spoiler button.
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Old 12-20-22, 11:48 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

I’m seeing it on New Years Eve with my parents- they wanted to go on Christmas but all the good seats were already sold out. Bought advance tickets for D-Box which has a limited number of seats, afraid if I wait too long that won’t be an option anymore.

But another reason why I’ve largely given up on theaters except for things like this which are harder to duplicate at home- theaters need to stop having small screens that movies get moved to after the first week or so. Multi screen theaters should have ALL the auditoriums be large premium format. If a movie isn’t worth playing in a large auditorium, then it’s probably not worth going to at all vs waiting to see at home.
Old 12-20-22, 01:23 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Alan Smithee View Post
I’m seeing it on New Years Eve with my parents- they wanted to go on Christmas but all the good seats were already sold out. Bought advance tickets for D-Box which has a limited number of seats, afraid if I wait too long that won’t be an option anymore.

But another reason why I’ve largely given up on theaters except for things like this which are harder to duplicate at home- theaters need to stop having small screens that movies get moved to after the first week or so. Multi screen theaters should have ALL the auditoriums be large premium format. If a movie isn’t worth playing in a large auditorium, then it’s probably not worth going to at all vs waiting to see at home.
That means fewer screens and fewer seats per day for a business that already scrapes by on ticket sales and needs concessions to keep them afloat (which means they need more people to come, not fewer). It's not going to happen without paying a premium.
Old 12-20-22, 11:48 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by rocket1312 View Post
Cameron has only made 2 non-documentaries in the 25 years since Titanic. His last movie was 13 years ago. Most young film-goers probably have no clue who James Cameron is. Statements like "everyone knows his movies don't open big but tend to have massive staying power" are completely irrelevant in the 2022 marketplace. That's not to say this won't have staying power, but projecting Avatar 2's box office based on something that happened in 1997 is kind of ludicrous.
Really? You using the year 1997 instead of 2009 just to make your point is ludicrous. You want a recent example fine, look at this years Top Gun Maverick. Was the majority of it's BO on opening weekend or throughout the rest of it's run? The potential for a film to have long legs can have a dramatic result on it's overall BO take. Especially when you consider the holiday season and yes you can even consider it being a James Cameron film. No one predicted that the first Avatar would overtake Titanic's BO. No one predicted Titanic's BO. Now I'm not saying it will have staying power nor am I saying that the BO hasn't changed since 2009 it certainly has. But all these ridiculous click bait articles predicting BO failure and even saying it caused a drop in Disney stock just because it failed to make over 150 million on it's first weekend (totally ignoring the crazy CEO shakeup) is ludicrous.
Old 12-20-22, 11:56 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

As of Tuesday night Avatar 2 has made more than 500 million worldwide.


https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...220937222.html
Old 12-21-22, 10:19 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by TomOpus View Post
If it's usually very cold where you live, won't affect a thing.

What may affect the WW BO is Covid has a resurgence in China.
Totally disagree. It's usually in the 20's here this time of year. My family often goes to the movies around the holidays. But it's going to be a literal blizzard with -40 degree wind chill and 50 mph wind gusts here Thurs and Fri. I guarantee people that were going to possibly go out anywhere are hunkering down for a couple of days.

Originally Posted by rocket1312 View Post
Cameron has only made 2 non-documentaries in the 25 years since Titanic. His last movie was 13 years ago. Most young film-goers probably have no clue who James Cameron is. Statements like "everyone knows his movies don't open big but tend to have massive staying power" are completely irrelevant in the 2022 marketplace. That's not to say this won't have staying power, but projecting Avatar 2's box office based on something that happened in 1997 is kind of ludicrous.
James Cameron is like Tim Burton. They have made movies that I absolutely love.... but not since the mid-nineties. Both major has-beens now. Just because teenage girls saw Leo DiCaprio and blue Romeo and Juliet 57 times in the theater doesn't keep his legacy going, IMO.
Old 12-21-22, 10:48 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Xander View Post
Totally disagree. It's usually in the 20's here this time of year. My family often goes to the movies around the holidays. But it's going to be a literal blizzard with -40 degree wind chill and 50 mph wind gusts here Thurs and Fri. I guarantee people that were going to possibly go out anywhere are hunkering down for a couple of days.



James Cameron is like Tim Burton. They have made movies that I absolutely love.... but not since the mid-nineties. Both major has-beens now. Just because teenage girls saw Leo DiCaprio and blue Romeo and Juliet 57 times in the theater doesn't keep his legacy going, IMO.
Hey, you leave Baz Luhrmann of this.
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Old 12-21-22, 10:50 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

“James Cameron is a major has-been” is certainly…a take.
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Old 12-21-22, 02:56 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Scott Mendelson is saying that this could hit 900 million on Christmas day.
Old 12-21-22, 02:58 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by GoldenJCJ View Post
“James Cameron is a major has-been” is certainly…a take.
And on top of that Tim Burton currently has one of the top viewed shows ever on Netflix.
Old 12-22-22, 11:05 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by GoldenJCJ View Post
“James Cameron is a major has-been” is certainly…a take.
OK. He's done one movie since 1997. And that movie came out 13 years ago. That doesn't qualify as "has-been"?
Old 12-22-22, 11:08 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by bluetoast View Post
And on top of that Tim Burton currently has one of the top viewed shows ever on Netflix.
I should not put Burton in the same boat, since he's actually still making stuff. I just haven't really liked any of his movies since Sleepy Hollow. But I do want to check out the Wednesday series and see how it is.
Old 12-22-22, 12:06 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

This is currently playing out like Rogue One, which ended with about $535m domestic.
Old 12-22-22, 02:55 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Xander View Post
OK. He's done one movie since 1997. And that movie came out 13 years ago. That doesn't qualify as "has-been"?
Stanley Kubrick was 12 years between Full Metal Jacket (1987) and Eyes Wide Shut (1999) but was never labelled a "has-been". Of course this was in the pre-social media era.
Old 12-22-22, 05:11 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Man, for some people, the desire for Avatar 2 to fail is like a religion.
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Old 12-22-22, 05:18 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

I was supposed to see this on Tuesday, but got sick. Maybe sometime next week. Not terribly excited about it, but will give it a go. I haven't really watched the original since right after it came out on Blu-ray.
Old 12-22-22, 06:11 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Xander View Post
OK. He's done one movie since 1997. And that movie came out 13 years ago. That doesn't qualify as "has-been"?
It’s okay. But that’s out of touch. His last two movies were the highest grossing of all time. And he had a family and branched into agriculture and education. You should read his Wikipedia sometime.

I remember in an interview, he said it would be cool to pop out yearly movies like Eastwood or Ridley Scott. But he makes technologically progressive movies that can take 5 years of his life.
Old 12-22-22, 06:29 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

There needed to be another option between #1 and #2. I think it will do big numbers and be just fine.
Old 12-22-22, 06:35 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Troy Stiffler View Post
https://twitter.com/CultureCrave/sta...21184611471360

I love the guy.

Also it's obvious those are not fans, but rather just paparazzi getting autographs to hock on eBay.
I don't think he signs for anyone. He's waved everyone off and said he doesn't sign autographs when I had my alternate The Abyss poster ready at a Q&A he had for the original Avatar.
Old 12-22-22, 07:13 PM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by rennervision View Post
Man, for some people, the desire for Avatar 2 to fail is like a religion.
Some people are pretty hyped to see it succeed too. Genre movie fans: passionate!

But seriously, people should feel free to enjoy what they enjoy and hype it if they want. Though I'm on record as saying I'm not interested in seeing this, I don't subscribe to the idea of rooting for something to fail.

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