Draven

Again, record-breaking pre-sale tickets. Where are you getting that people are "reluctant" to see this movie?

The cast of "Frozen II" was everywhere during the leadup to that movie and it seems to have paid off for them.

So only "the fans" are breaking pre-sale ticket records?

Kurt D

Frozen and Star Wars aren't really comparable items, and yeah, I would wager the majority of pre-sales are due to fans. Those don't seem to be controversial ideas to me.

I will STAND by my box office PREDICTIONS! (Especially regarding Cats.)

Boba Fett

No. As much as I love Star Wars; the series has been diminishing returns each year. The only notable exceptions are Rogue One and The Mandalorian. The most I see it doing is largest opening weekend, but that is a huge long shot. Overall, I predict a $250 million opening and maybe $650 million domestic overall. Unless there is something radically secret in the film that hasn't leaked, this will be better received than Last Jedi but far less than Force Awakens, which to be honest I attribute half the box office to the return of Han Solo.

Draven

Just another quick reminder that The Last Jedi made over a billion dollars and has a 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Force Awakens got a 93%.

DJariya

That is all made up bullshit. No one with any common sense believes that they asked George Lucas to re-edit the entire movie due to “ bad test screenings” or even the most nonsense one that Bob Iger had his own personal cut made. You have to be really fucking naive with an axe to grind to believe that stupid shit.

If anyone doesn’t want to see it, that’s up to you. No one is forcing or pressuring you. You can spend your money and time however you please.

Mike86

Not just DVD Talk. The Last Jedi was divisive whether people who like it want to believe it or not. You cited Rotten Tomatoes earlier giving the critic average of 91%. The audience average is 44%. Apparently the minority at DVD Talk has quite a bit of pull to drag the numbers down that much. For comparison The Force Awakens ​​​​​ did 93% with critics, 86% with audience.

coli

Then how do you justify this article in May 2018 saying 'Solo' doubled 'Black Panthers' pre-sales? They said they were only 2nd to Avengers that year in pre-sales for the first 24 hours.

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/s...es-1202800028/

I remember being wary of those early numbers coming in from 'Solo', as I saw many empty theaters in my local theaters. We remember what happened to 'Solo' as it tanked (I say that as a huge 'Solo' fan). Obviously 'The Rise of Skywalker' will not tank, but I'm noticing my local theaters are not full when I vividly remember I could not get tickets at this same time when 'The Last Jedi' tickets were on sale in November 2017. Which goes to my prediction of around 190-200 million opening weekend and 550 domestic gross, which won't equal 'The Last Jedi' and won't even come close to 'The Force Awakens.'

Draven

All the theaters near me are pretty full for opening weekend. We actually couldn't get tickets for the time we wanted to go (and there are so many theaters around here I can't remember the last time that happened).

The point is that I think there are people here who didn't like The Last Jedi (despite critical acclaim and a fuckton of money made) and want to see TROS fail. Now, for example, I think Avatar is a terrible movie, yet it obviously made a lot of money and was pretty well-liked from critics and audiences. I would love nothing more than for Avatar 2 to tank because of Cameron's arrogance that people want another one. So I'll be the first to admit that I am not immune to this. I just think it's interesting how The Last Jedi is constantly derided for somehow destroying the Star Wars franchise when it did just fine at the box office and with critics. I chalk the 44% audience score up to people on the internet driving it down because they suck at life.

IBJoel

If it keeps with the running Star Wars trend, it'll do more than TLJ, less than TFA. People like the beginning of things and the culmination of things. Those are more "event-like" than the middle. https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/f...rs#tab=summary
If I had to take a guess, based purely on previous box office numbers, I would estimate $650M domestic.

coli

I was just rebutting your article about pre-sales because they said the same thing about Solo. My point was I'm always wary of these pre-sales 24 hour ticket graphs because that narrative just didn't jive with how Solo produced at the box office, so I'm suspicious of the same with this movie.

I actually look at it the other way as I think the Pro-TFA/Anti-TLJ fans want TROS to pass TLJ in box office, to show that there was a backlash against that movie. Now of course there are people here who just hate Disney SW, so I'm sure they want it to fail regardless.

Dr. DVD

I actually selected the "are you high" option on this one

tanman

I guess it's true but I just don't believe it. It took me 8 hours to get tickets to Endgame. Star Wars I was able to get tickets instantly.

Artman

Oldboy are you OK? No way in hell this makes close to 900m...600m is about where it ends up...if it's lucky. At this point I think it'll make the least domestically and worldwide of the new trilogy...at best it matches TLJ. Good grief...

tanman

I made a post awhile ago and now I can't find it and now everything is behind a paywall on Box Office Mojo. It broke down the percentage that each film did in regards to the previous ones and took into account inflation and all that. Basically each trilogy takes a dip for the second movie but the third movie gets a boost and sits in between the second and first one. So basically IMHO if RoS doesn't make more than TLJ I'll consider it a failure. Considering TLJ opened with $220 million and went on to make $620 million it has some big shoes to fill.

What I would really like to know. What I believe to be the true indicator of fan engagement is merchandise numbers. THATS where the real money is and is the best indicator on how the fan base is engaging with the brand.

story

I did, too, and I've never done that before. And hey, i just got done writing about how much i love Star Wars over in the Episode IX thread but there's no way this becomes the all-time champ. And that's fine!

OldBoy

well then it would still be domestic BO champ, no? that's something...