movieguru

What do you think will be the final domestic box office gross of Avengers: Infinity War?

Bluelitespecial

Who knows, but I think it will outgross Black Panther.

RichC2

Avengers total domestic gross: $623m
Avengers Age of Ultron domestic gross: $459m
Black Panther domestic gross: $659m+

So $600 - $699 is probably a safe bet, unless people just really don't like it.

TomOpus

$450 million

Koby

Figure around 650 million.

movieguru

Im thinking this as well. The 600 million rnge seems most likely. It has a good chance of reaching the 700 million mark, but there is a lot more competition out there for it to go against that the BP didn't have. It also will depend on the reviews and reception. So far there isn't any reviews from those that have seen it. If it gets bad reviews it will hurt it.

OldBoy

$600-$699

fumanstan

I think it'll beat Black Panther, so in the $700 million range. But it's hard to guess, if reviews are more like Age of Ultron it could be more in the $500 million range.

GoldenJCJ

At least $8. Wait, I’m going to take my wife too, so...at least $16.

d2cheer

There is a good bet it will make that in the first two weeks.

Obi-Wanma

Defiant1

I would wager that BP will outgross IW. BP is currently at $665M and will probably end up just a little above $700M. I think IW will make a ton, but has to contend with Solo coming out just two weeks after its release. I'm predicting a total domestic BO in the mid $500s.

Obi-Wanma

Solo comes out 4 weeks after IW.

james2025a

I think international gross is more interesting than domestic.

movieguru

Yeah Solo is four weeks after Infinity War. Deadpool, however, is three weeks after A:IF. So that gives Infinity War three weeks at number one than it will fall with the release of Deadpool which will fall the following week when Solo comes out. BP had a five week run at number one to get the numbers it got and there was little competition standing in its way. Infinity War will have much more not counting these two other movies.

By the end of the 3rd week for BP it was at$520M. If will gross more the first weekend $220-250 but will more than likely fall much more than the 41% that BP had in its second weekend. So even if Avengers is somewhat higher at the end of the third week, the declines will be much sharper after that point. Reviews will be crucial. If it's like AOU it will fall more sharply. If it has cliffhanger it may not do as well. It doesn't sound like IM or Cap are going to die at least in this movie since intervies indicate that they will be in Avengers 4.

RichC2

I don't understand Infinity Wars release date. It should have come out during the summer when every day is like a weekend, not a full month prior.

Defiant1

Oops sorry, got my dates mixed up. I still stand by my BO prediction though. There are just too many big summer movies coming out one after another that they cannibalize each other to some effect. Movies that come out at Christmas (or February) have a lot more time to have the playing field to themselves.

movieguru

It is considered to be a world market now for movies, but domestic grosses are accurate and consistant over a much arger period of time.

movieguru

They don't want to compete against themselves. They have Solo coming out in May and The Incredibles 2 coming out in mid June. Ant Man and the Wasp comes out in July. So they've now got their summer movies coming out four weeks apart so the dont cannibalize off each other.

TheMovieman

Ditto.

Curious to know Inhumans reasoning for $300-399M given tracking has it with a $200M+ opening weekend (and would not surprise me if it reaches $250M).

Obi-Wanma

Marvel always puts their biggest film of the year out the first weekend of May, and they've done very well there. This one got bumped up an extra week, but it's a tradition that dates back to the original Spider-Man. Avengers 4 comes out the first week of May next year.

RoboDad

At the end of the day, the worldwide gross is all that matters to the studio. That’s why they are going to such lengths to make their properties more appealing to the international markets, especially China.

melasnus

I'm not seeing a trillion quad-gillion...

Inhumans99

I should not have participated as I was taking a bit of the piss as the Brits might say. It is too easy to assume this film will blow past Black Panther's final gross which is higher than Titanic (without taking into account inflation adusted gross) but on paper there is a lot of competition for theater goers dollars that I think makes it harder for this film to blow everything else out of the water (minus Avatar, still the undisputed champion).

I think that reviews and word of mouth will be especially important to ensure this film has legs. You can say that reviews/wom are important to any film but I think you know what I mean.

All of this has already been said in this thread but think of my poll choice as the person who bids $1 on The Price Is Right, or the post that says it will make one hundred billion dollars...both might be kinda right but it is too early to tell.

Iinfinity War could have meh word of mouth and struggle to get to 400-500 million (it could happen, plenty of "tentpoles" have had 120-170 million first weekends and boggled the mind by struggling to final out at 300-400 million domestic), or it could be like plenty of other films and have the stamina to easily clear 500 million.

Folks may laugh but if Rampage does what Tomb Raider could not and actually turns into a nice medium sized domestic hit it along with now playing films like A Quiet Place might siphon just enough money out of our pockets to keep Infinity War from being on track to be the domestic top dog this year (please note I am not saying Rampage or A Quiet Place will out gross IW...if that was not clear, IW would have to be a real stinker to not final out with a domestic/world wide gross that is higher than say Jumanji).

The Bus

Sequels are always judged by their last release and Ultron was underwhelming. While I think this will be a better film and have better word of mouth, I'd see an inflation-adjusted domestic total somewhere between the two.