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Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

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Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Old 12-30-15, 03:44 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
up to $1,228.3M worldwide, which places it above Iron Man 3 and just below #8. Frozen. It should leap frog to #4 by the end of the weekend.
Looking at the top ten, there's four movies that are sequels well beyond the initial "trilogy". Usually by the time you get past the third movie, their grosses significantly drop as the more they make.
Old 12-31-15, 12:06 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Will it topple Avatar this weekend? $600M as of yesterday
Old 12-31-15, 05:05 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

I think the success of TFA shows that the modern blockbuster limits their audience to teenagers/fanboys and there is alot of older moviegoers that are left out the door.

Now in no ways is TFA is a great movie (despite the fact that I enjoyed it), but I am 43 years old and I honestly avoid summer blockbusters these days because they're all the same type of comic book or CGI action movies that bring nothing new to the table.

Now many will argue what new things did TFA bring to the table? That's not the point as SW spans generations, and it shows that the older moviegoer pretty much avoids the summer blockbuster these days but will still turn out for a SW movie. Heck, I have seen it 2 times and will probably see it once more where I haven't gone to a summer blockbuster movie in years.

I think the difference in the blockbuster now and 30 years ago, is they are trying to make the movies geared towards teenagers/fanboys cause that's what market research shows. When they made Star Wars, Superman, Raiders of the Lost Ark, ET, Back to the Future, etc, an adult can enjoy the movies just as much as a kid could. But now I have no desire to The Avengers, Man of Steel or any dopey Comic Book movie cause I know they are just not made for me.
Old 12-31-15, 05:45 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Star Wars: The Force Awakens, meanwhile, dropped only about 5% from Tuesday for a Wednesday take of roughly $27.5M to $27.9M which would bring its domestic cume to $628.7M.
Old 12-31-15, 06:30 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

That's pretty crazy, but not unexpected. I pass by two large chain (Cinemark and AMC) theaters on my way to/from work. During the week (throughout the year) those place are dead zones.

Since FA came out, those parking lots are at least at half capacity every weekday. I've seen it 4 times already and will likely add a 5th screening.
Old 12-31-15, 06:57 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Yup... I went to see The Hateful Eight again last night... theatre was packed for Star Wars. Usually the place is pretty dead on a Wednesday night.
Old 12-31-15, 07:22 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by coli View Post
I think the success of TFA shows that the modern blockbuster limits their audience to teenagers/fanboys and there is alot of older moviegoers that are left out the door.

Now in no ways is TFA is a great movie (despite the fact that I enjoyed it), but I am 43 years old and I honestly avoid summer blockbusters these days because they're all the same type of comic book or CGI action movies that bring nothing new to the table.

Now many will argue what new things did TFA bring to the table? That's not the point as SW spans generations, and it shows that the older moviegoer pretty much avoids the summer blockbuster these days but will still turn out for a SW movie. Heck, I have seen it 2 times and will probably see it once more where I haven't gone to a summer blockbuster movie in years.

I think the difference in the blockbuster now and 30 years ago, is they are trying to make the movies geared towards teenagers/fanboys cause that's what market research shows. When they made Star Wars, Superman, Raiders of the Lost Ark, ET, Back to the Future, etc, an adult can enjoy the movies just as much as a kid could. But now I have no desire to The Avengers, Man of Steel or any dopey Comic Book movie cause I know they are just not made for me.
That's because you're an old 43. I'll bet you don't like roller coasters anymore because they're all the same. Been there, done that, right?



Seriously, you do bring something of a valid point up - audiences over 40, and certainly over 50, are not valued by the major studios anymore. But that doesn't mean that filmmakers can't make good movies that they could backdoor to older fans (throw in nods here and there to the older crowd that would not impact younger viewers' enjoyment of the movie).

For me, personally, as someone pushing 50 I still enjoy the Marvel movies. They all bring something a little different to the table. Ant-Man was a great example as it was, at it's core, a heist movie with the requisite sense of humor, and that's something that hasn't been done in a Superhero movie before.

There were several movies that came out this year - Summer Blockbusters - that I enjoyed. To me they're the movie equivalent of that roller coaster. I still like roller coasters. I still feel the need for speed...

The Force Awakens was exactly what I expected at the box office - it spans generations and almost everyone is enjoying it. But Star Wars is different from almost all other Blockbusters in that it's got a 40 year history and audiences (like me) who experienced it in 1977 are VERY attached to it. The interesting thing is that teenagers seem to be having a similar reaction, even though their only experience with the previous SW movies was on home video. This is an event movie.
Old 12-31-15, 07:30 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Went to see it for a second time last Sunday during a snowstorm, and the theater was almost full. Even bad weather won't keep the money from pouring in!!
Old 12-31-15, 09:06 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by coli View Post
I think the success of TFA shows that the modern blockbuster limits their audience to teenagers/fanboys and there is alot of older moviegoers that are left out the door.

Now in no ways is TFA is a great movie (despite the fact that I enjoyed it), but I am 43 years old and I honestly avoid summer blockbusters these days because they're all the same type of comic book or CGI action movies that bring nothing new to the table.

Now many will argue what new things did TFA bring to the table? That's not the point as SW spans generations, and it shows that the older moviegoer pretty much avoids the summer blockbuster these days but will still turn out for a SW movie. Heck, I have seen it 2 times and will probably see it once more where I haven't gone to a summer blockbuster movie in years.

I think the difference in the blockbuster now and 30 years ago, is they are trying to make the movies geared towards teenagers/fanboys cause that's what market research shows. When they made Star Wars, Superman, Raiders of the Lost Ark, ET, Back to the Future, etc, an adult can enjoy the movies just as much as a kid could. But now I have no desire to The Avengers, Man of Steel or any dopey Comic Book movie cause I know they are just not made for me.
Adults can enjoy most modern comic book movies the same way as the ones you mentioned. Just because they didn't appeal to you let's not dismiss previous huge box office performances by The Avengers and The Dark Knight as limited to teenagers and fanboys

The Star Wars franchise is obviously a different beast and have a certain level of hype, nostalgia, and attachment that even comic book characters don't reach.
Old 12-31-15, 09:13 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by coli View Post
I think the success of TFA shows that the modern blockbuster limits their audience to teenagers/fanboys and there is alot of older moviegoers that are left out the door.

Now in no ways is TFA is a great movie (despite the fact that I enjoyed it), but I am 43 years old and I honestly avoid summer blockbusters these days because they're all the same type of comic book or CGI action movies that bring nothing new to the table.

Now many will argue what new things did TFA bring to the table? That's not the point as SW spans generations, and it shows that the older moviegoer pretty much avoids the summer blockbuster these days but will still turn out for a SW movie. Heck, I have seen it 2 times and will probably see it once more where I haven't gone to a summer blockbuster movie in years.

I think the difference in the blockbuster now and 30 years ago, is they are trying to make the movies geared towards teenagers/fanboys cause that's what market research shows. When they made Star Wars, Superman, Raiders of the Lost Ark, ET, Back to the Future, etc, an adult can enjoy the movies just as much as a kid could. But now I have no desire to The Avengers, Man of Steel or any dopey Comic Book movie cause I know they are just not made for me.
Straight from George Lucas himself, Star Wars was a children's movie. And I'm 39 and have enjoyed the hell out of every Marvel movie and pretty much all of the current crop of "blockbusters".

The idea that they are "not made for you" when many of the comic book movies star characters that have been around far longer than 30 years is more about you than them.
Old 12-31-15, 01:14 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by hail2dking View Post
Will it topple Avatar this weekend? $600M as of yesterday
It passed the Avengers yesterday. Should pass Jurassic World and Titanic today. I'd guess it passes Avatar Sunday.
Old 12-31-15, 01:22 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by DthRdrX View Post
It passed the Avengers yesterday. Should pass Jurassic World and Titanic today. I'd guess it passes Avatar Sunday.
I don't know if it will make it by Sunday, but it will certainly be before the next weekend.

So, in just three weeks, it will become the #1 domestic box office movie of all time. Will it make it to $1B domestic?
Old 12-31-15, 01:29 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by RoboDad View Post
I don't know if it will make it by Sunday, but it will certainly be before the next weekend.

So, in just three weeks, it will become the #1 domestic box office movie of all time. Will it make it to $1B domestic?
It will only need around 100-110 million over a holiday weekend. I don't think it will have a hard time getting that.

I think it is going to stop around 900-950 but who knows. I read that Disney negotiated for 60% of ticket sales the ENTIRE run so they have no incentive to pull it early.
Old 12-31-15, 01:35 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by DthRdrX View Post
It will only need around 100-110 million over a holiday weekend. I don't think it will have a hard time getting that.

I think it is going to stop around 900-950 but who knows. I read that Disney negotiated for 60% of ticket sales the ENTIRE run so they have no incentive to pull it early.
It is possible, but that would mean having a decline of less than 33% from the previous weekend, which was also a holiday weekend - and that weekend had a 39% decline. I'm just trying to not get my hopes up.

As for the percentage, I actually think that is kind of cool. If they negotiated a flat 60% rate (no sliding scale), then theaters are getting a much better return for the early weeks than they usually do.
Old 12-31-15, 01:37 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by RoboDad View Post
It is possible, but that would mean having a decline of less than 33% from the previous weekend, which was also a holiday weekend - and that weekend had a 39% decline. I'm just trying to not get my hopes up.
If it doesn't pass Avatar on Sunday it will on Monday.
Old 12-31-15, 05:40 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by RoboDad View Post
It is possible, but that would mean having a decline of less than 33% from the previous weekend, which was also a holiday weekend - and that weekend had a 39% decline. I'm just trying to not get my hopes up.

As for the percentage, I actually think that is kind of cool. If they negotiated a flat 60% rate (no sliding scale), then theaters are getting a much better return for the early weeks than they usually do.
Don't studios usually take 90 percent or some high figure percentage of opening-weekend gross?
Old 12-31-15, 06:01 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by RoboDad View Post
I don't know if it will make it by Sunday, but it will certainly be before the next weekend.

So, in just three weeks, it will become the #1 domestic box office movie of all time. Will it make it to $1B domestic?
Forget $1 billion. How about closer to 1.1 billion?
Old 12-31-15, 06:20 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by Throwing Copper View Post
Don't studios usually take 90 percent or some high figure percentage of opening-weekend gross?
I'd imagine it depends on the film/studio.

Disney has been pushing their muscle around the theater owners regarding both Star Wars and their latest Marvel films. They are becoming a powerhouse which has many theaters nervous.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Walt Disney Co. (DIS - Get Report) stock is increasing 0.06% to $107.31 in afternoon trading on Tuesday after the company reportedly negotiated a 60% share of ticket sales from its latest film "Star Wars: The Force Awakens," surpassing the average of a 55% share that studios receive, according to CNBC.
Old 12-31-15, 07:16 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

$1 billion should have been a choice! I would have been curious to see how many people would have picked it.
Old 12-31-15, 08:19 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by bdshort View Post
$1 billion should have been a choice! I would have been curious to see how many people would have picked it.
I would have. This was clearly going to make over $1 billion, whether it was amazing or terrible.
Old 12-31-15, 08:30 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

I disagree with that. If this movie was terrible, we'd be seeing much steeper drops and smaller weekday grosses.
Old 12-31-15, 08:39 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by DthRdrX View Post
I'd imagine it depends on the film/studio.

Disney has been pushing their muscle around the theater owners regarding both Star Wars and their latest Marvel films. They are becoming a powerhouse which has many theaters nervous.
Yes, I was told by someone I know that is a manager. He told me that the theater is contractually obligated by Disney to keep Star Wars running at the same time every day on the same screens it started on for something like 4 weeks straight.
Old 12-31-15, 09:47 PM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Originally Posted by story View Post
I would have. This was clearly going to make over $1 billion, whether it was amazing or terrible.
No way it would be breaking records if the movie wasn't well received by most fans. This is what Episode 1 should have done if there was no backlash as it had the hype and other movies didn't open up for a few weeks after too in fear of getting lost in the shuffle. I remember for Episode 2, other Big blockbusters were opening the next week as SW was just another movie with a big opening weekend and fans moved on.

There are so many casual moviegoers I know that are seeing the movie now because they heard from me and others that we liked it.
Old 01-02-16, 04:08 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

On Friday, the movie took in an additional $35 million which brought its total to $687 million domestically.
Old 01-02-16, 07:39 AM
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Re: Predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens' box office

Friday 2ND UPDATE, 11:42PM: Early Friday PM industry figures show Disney’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens making as much as $35M today, raising its cume through 15 days to $687M. What does this mean? It means that Force Awakens flew past the No. 2 and No. 3 all-time domestic grossing titles Titanic ($658.7M) and Jurassic World ($652.27M) in the same day. By end of Sunday, Force Awakens’ total is projected to stand between $744.8M-$746M, just $14.5M-$15.7M short of Avatar‘s all-time domestic record of $760.5M. Should these figures hold up, this would put Force Awakens in a position to own the all-time crown by end of Monday.

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