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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Old 07-14-18, 09:47 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

i don't know what final will be, but with projections for HT3 close to $50 and Skyscraper essentially a dud, just surprised that a subpar animated franchise is such a hit. didn't even see or think the first 2 were that well received and we still have I2 out there right now. and why did i think this was going to be streamed for free for Prime members?
Old 07-14-18, 09:49 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by TheMovieman
It did and will in a week or so even when adjusted for ticket inflation (Finding Nemo - $516M, Finding Dory - $514M). Could be short-lived, though, with Toy Story 4 opening next year.
is final 10 of all-time gross (and all others for that matter) calculated with adjusted inflation?

i know Avatar is #1 and then Titanic, right? i get so confused now.

wow...i wouldn't even have come close to guessing top 10. mostly Marvel movies, a Star Wars thrown in, a Fast movie, one last Potter movie and Cameron's opi...

Last edited by OldBoy; 07-14-18 at 09:56 PM.
Old 07-15-18, 02:23 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by OldBoy
is final 10 of all-time gross (and all others for that matter) calculated with adjusted inflation?

i know Avatar is #1 and then Titanic, right? i get so confused now.

wow...i wouldn't even have come close to guessing top 10. mostly Marvel movies, a Star Wars thrown in, a Fast movie, one last Potter movie and Cameron's opi...
Well, domestically, unadjusted (ones in parenthesis is where they ranked adjusted):
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $936M (11)
2. Avatar - 760 (15)
3. Black Panther - 699.9 (30)
4. Avengers: Infinity War - 676 (33)
5. Titanic - 659 (5)
6. Jurassic World - 652 (24)
7. The Avengers - 623 (29)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 620 (43)
9. Incredibles 2 - 536 (69)
10. The Dark Knight - 535 (32)

#1 Adjusted is Gone with the Wind, #2 is Star Wars and #3 is The Sound of Music.
Old 07-15-18, 02:28 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 N Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony $44,100,000 - 4,267 - $10,335 $45,376,000 $80 1
2 1 Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $28,840,000 -62.0% 4,206 - $6,857 $132,825,225 - 2
3 N Skyscraper Uni. $25,485,000 - 3,782 - $6,738 $25,485,000 $125 1
4 3 Incredibles 2 BV $16,220,000 -42.9% 3,705 -408 $4,378 $535,818,492 - 5
5 2 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. $15,515,000 -45.8% 3,695 -654 $4,199 $363,297,215 $170 4
6 4 The First Purge Uni. $9,130,000 -47.5% 3,038 +7 $3,005 $49,509,970 $13 2
7 16 Sorry to Bother You Annapurna $4,258,000 +485.5% 805 +789 $5,289 $5,322,952 - 2
8 5 Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony $3,850,000 -49.5% 2,006 -1,049 $1,919 $43,200,345 $35 3
9 6 Uncle Drew LG/S $3,225,000 -51.2% 1,702 -1,040 $1,895 $36,692,040 - 3
10 7 Ocean's 8 WB $2,910,000 -42.6% 1,618 -986 $1,799 $132,255,936 $70 6
11 9 Won't You Be My Neighbor? Focus $1,885,000 -26.7% 868 -25 $2,172 $15,825,287 - 6
12 8 Tag WB (NL) $1,305,000 -56.9% 982 -1,175 $1,329 $51,346,957 $28 5
13 17 Three Identical Strangers Neon $1,181,080 +72.5% 170 +119 $6,948 $2,517,854 - 3
14 20 Leave No Trace BST $1,158,879 +187.6% 311 +274 $3,726 $2,121,171 - 3
Old 07-15-18, 04:31 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Ant-Man took a pretty big hit. I really thought Avengers would carry over in to better business for it (plus it reviewed so well).
Old 07-15-18, 05:25 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by fumanstan
Ant-Man took a pretty big hit. I really thought Avengers would carry over in to better business for it (plus it reviewed so well).
Yeah, IIRC it's either largest or second largest drop of an MCU movie with Spider-Man: Homecoming.
Old 07-15-18, 07:00 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by TheMovieman
Yeah, IIRC it's either largest or second largest drop of an MCU movie with Spider-Man: Homecoming.
Spider-Man Homecoming did find some legs after the second week and made over 300 mill.

Pretty sure that won't happen here. Been a weird summer so far... it seems like almost every BO prediction has been off significantly. I also had to do a double-take thinking Ant-man and Wasp was in their third week not second.
Old 07-15-18, 07:45 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Ant-man had a pretty strong week mid-week, it made more on Tuesday than it did on its 2nd Friday, so I wouldn't count it out yet. Summer is weird sometimes and this summer is just ridiculously crowded.

There definitely seems to be some disappointment in it not heavily tying back to the events of Avengers.
Old 07-16-18, 01:28 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Drunk post, so go easy. "Weird Summer" I think more like people are getting tired AF of having to lug the family to yet another Disney/Lucas/Marvel/Pixar movie every God damn second of the day. I call it Burn Out Factor, coupled with the most massive shift in modern history in how we ingest our media... hello streaming. Most people are willing to wait to stream something than to watch it on TV or go to a movie theater.

It happened with the music industry and for all intents and purposes it killed it. When Napster/file sharing hit the industry instead of changing - it dug its heels in and didn't budge, when they should have been slashing prices of CD's from $17.99 to every CD is $4.99 they would have sold like gangbusters, and still make a profit, instead the CD as we know it is dead. Music as we once bought it is dead. Hell, I rip HD versions of songs off of Youtube all day only because physical media is getting harder and harder to get. Or, I don't want to purchase a CD that has only a couple of decent tracks.

Movies however, that's a somewhat different beast. Cord cutting made it easier for people to justify waiting for the streaming version of the newest release. Consumers have already been conditioned for the "I'll just wait a couple months and it will be streaming somewhere." Taking into consideration that even Blu-Ray/DVD is going away at a faster rate. If anything, Netflix fucked Hollywood and everyone is fighting to play catch up. Movies will turn into a first weekend release event and then the following week you can purchase or stream it. And sooner than you think. Because, as we already know some releases already have that Digital Rental option on release week.

Sadly movie going is going the way of the DoDo. And studios like Disney with their "every 6 months" attitude isn't helping. Although I like the recent Star Wars Solo movie, after what The Last Jedi did... more like, after what little remains of my childhood I had left that Kathleen Kennedy decided to rape and leave for dead, I won't see the next SW movie on principle. I'll see it eventually, I just won't pay to see it in a theater.

Anecdotally, I saw both Incredibles 2 and Ant Man on their respective release weekends in Los Angeles and the theaters were only 1/4 full both times. And opening weekend for Avengers Infinity, same thing practically had the place to ourselves. And Solo, forget it, I was going to take a picture of the empty theater I was sitting in and post it to instagram, I do regret not doing that. And these are theaters where even a year ago I'd watch a Pixar or Marvel movie to an almost packed house. I think people are honestly just burnt out.
Old 07-16-18, 07:03 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Hal9000, I think almost your entire post has a lot of merit and I agree with you, good stuff. Since its a "drunk post" I'll go easy on you, as requested, but offer that when you post about how a woman raped your childhood and left it for dead, it doesn't come off well. At all. I hope I dont have to explain why but can offer some thoughts if you're challenged by that.

Originally Posted by hal9000
Although I like the recent Star Wars Solo movie, after what The Last Jedi did... more like, after what little remains of my childhood I had left that Kathleen Kennedy decided to rape and leave for dead, I won't see the next SW movie on principle. I'll see it eventually, I just won't pay to see it in a theater.
Old 07-16-18, 07:08 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by hal9000

Anecdotally, I saw both Incredibles 2 and Ant Man on their respective release weekends in Los Angeles and the theaters were only 1/4 full both times. And opening weekend for Avengers Infinity, same thing practically had the place to ourselves. And Solo, forget it, I was going to take a picture of the empty theater I was sitting in and post it to instagram, I do regret not doing that. And these are theaters where even a year ago I'd watch a Pixar or Marvel movie to an almost packed house. I think people are honestly just burnt out.
I don't think that your experience with Infinity War or Incredibles was typical. IW had the biggest opening weekend of all time. I saw it twice on opening weekend, once on Thursday night and once on Sunday morning, and both showings were packed.

The Incredibles was also a huge opening (8th all time and 1st among animated films) and was packed all weekend most places (I saw it Sunday evening and it was full, at a place that had been screening it practically every 30 minutes all weekend).

Ant-Man and Solo were slower, for sure, but Ant-Man still opened 24% above the original, which was the 2nd lowest opening of the MCU. Solo was the only unmitigated failure on this list. I saw Solo on the Thursday evening preview and it was less than half full.

Last edited by Obi-Wanma; 07-16-18 at 07:21 AM.
Old 07-16-18, 09:16 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Right, the thought of burnout and waiting for streaming doesn't make much sense when Avengers and Incredibles broke records left and right.
Old 07-19-18, 08:31 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I do think there's definitely a case of people still wanting to go to the big event films but being a little choosier on films they consider to be "non-events." Avengers and Incredibles were looked at as big events. Solo and Ant-Man were not. They both performed fine overall (if you remove their respective franchise tags, which admittedly is somewhat of a stretch to do analytically), but Disney needs to either cut back on releases if they want them all to be "events" or recognize that it's not possible to launch a ton of event films a year and be happy with the overall solid grosses of the non-event films.

I mean, there are films where I'd like to go to right now, but between getting a sitter for our 9-month old and this and that, it's a big investment, so I have to pick and choose.
Old 07-19-18, 08:37 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Also, for those into such things, Black Panther is still tracking but remains about 100K shy of $700 million. Rampage is also tracking about $850K shy of $100 million. Not sure either will pass the round numbers without "help."
Old 07-20-18, 10:37 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Early Estimates based on early Friday results:

1. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - $41m+
2. The Equalizer 2 - $34m
3. Hotel Transylvania 3 - $23.5m (-47%, $91.4m cume)
4. Ant-man and the Wasp - $15.2m (-47%, $163.7m cume)
5. Incredibles 2 - $11.1m (-32%, $556.9m cume)
- Skyscraper - $10m (-60%, $45.8m cume)

Ant-man and the Wasp will be outpacing the original by about $31m at the end of this weekend, and should end up with about $210m - $220m or so by the end of its run (the original made $180m).

Last edited by RichC2; 07-20-18 at 10:43 PM.
Old 07-21-18, 12:36 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Skyscraper is going to be a pretty big money loser unless the Asian/China numbers are huge.

It's supposed to open in China today (7/20) So we probably won't see any official numbers for a few more days.
Old 07-22-18, 07:41 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I admire the Rock's work ethic, but he might want to dial it back.

Edit: Wiki says he only has one film on the slate for next year, Jungle Cruise, and a cameo in Fighting with my Family, so I guess he is doing so already. I imagine he'll cameo in Shazam as well, but that's fine.

Last edited by JeremyM; 07-22-18 at 07:47 AM.
Old 07-22-18, 08:13 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Everybody has duds. Rampage though did make $425m worldwide, which is pretty impressive all things considered.
Old 07-22-18, 10:02 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Weekend Estimates, Mamma Mia and Equalizer flip flopped:

<<Last Weekend <Last YearView Index: By Year | By Weekend 
TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 N The Equalizer 2 Sony $35,825,000 - 3,388 - $10,574 $35,825,000 $62 1
2 N Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! Uni. $34,380,000 - 3,317 - $10,365 $34,380,000 $75 1
3 1 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony $23,150,000 -47.5% 4,267 - $5,425 $91,089,268 $80 2
4 2 Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $16,126,000 -44.6% 3,778 -428 $4,268 $164,624,292 - 3
5 4 Incredibles 2 BV $11,520,000 -29.2% 3,164 -541 $3,641 $557,335,440 - 6
6 5 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. $11,005,000 -32.1% 3,381 -314 $3,255 $383,904,505 $170 5
7 3 Skyscraper Uni. $10,960,000 -56.0% 3,822 +40 $2,868 $46,749,120 $125 2
8 6 The First Purge Uni. $4,980,000 -46.5% 2,331 -707 $2,136 $60,191,365 $13 3
9 N Unfriended: Dark Web BH Tilt $3,495,000 - 1,546 - $2,261 $3,495,000 $1 1
10 7 Sorry to Bother You Annapurna $2,823,000 -32.9% 1,050 +245 $2,689 $10,252,204 - 3
11 8 Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony $1,880,000 -51.6% 1,448 -558 $1,298 $47,085,653 $35 4
12 10 Ocean's 8 WB $1,575,000 -45.8% 1,002 -616 $1,572 $135,639,512 $70 7
13 9 Uncle Drew LG/S $1,525,000 -52.1% 1,237 -465 $1,233 $40,027,474 - 4
14 13 Three Identical Strangers Neon $1,431,800 +19.3% 332 +166 $4,313 $4,500,041 - 4
15 11 Won't You Be My Neighbor? Focus $1,305,000 -33.0% 730 -138 $1,788 $18,409,027 - 7
16 14 Leave No Trace BST $891,545 -24.0% 361 +50 $2,470 $3,614,395 - 4
17 23 Eighth Grade A24 $794,370 +201.1% 33 +29 $24,072 $1,197,171 - 2
18 12 Tag WB (NL) $683,000 -47.1% 581 -401 $1,176 $52,825,783 $28 6
19 15 Deadpool 2 Fox $460,000 -41.5% 373 -215 $1,233 $317,107,440 $110 10
20 16 Avengers: Infinity War BV $402,000 -35.3% 294 -81 $1,367 $676,835,522 - 13
21 N Blindspotting LG/S $332,500 - 14 - $23,750 $332,500 - 1
22 31 Don't Worry He Won't Get Far on Foot Amazon $265,360 +218.4% 62 +58 $4,280 $380,385 - 2
Old 07-22-18, 11:50 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by JeremyM
I admire the Rock's work ethic, but he might want to dial it back.

Edit: Wiki says he only has one film on the slate for next year, Jungle Cruise, and a cameo in Fighting with my Family, so I guess he is doing so already. I imagine he'll cameo in Shazam as well, but that's fine.
Johnson actually has 4 movies slated to come out in 2019.

Jungle Cruise (not yet filmed)

Hobbs and Shaw (filming in September)

Jumanji 3 (filming TBA)

And Fighting for my Family (already in the can)

And thereís no confirmation that heís in Shazam.

I think he looks at Skyscraper as just another job. He got paid, hoped to be competitive, but ultimately it didnít work. So heís moving on to the next gig.
Old 07-22-18, 04:45 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-of...ut-1202880541/

Skyscraper made about $45M in China


Dwayne Johnson’s disaster drama collected $75 million internationally this weekend, propelled by a $45 million bow in China. Along with $11 million this weekend in North America, “Skyscraper” has pocketed $176.8 million globally. The film, which is set in Hong Kong and features a number of Asian actors, was virtually engineered for its international appeal. Universal and Legendary have been banking on strong returns overseas to make up for the disappointing domestic number, where it has made $46 million in two weeks.

To compare, Johnson’s latest, “Rampage,” opened in China with $55 million. Though it got a slow start, the video game adaptation went on to earn $99 million in North America and $326 million overseas.

“Skyscraper’s” top abroad openings this weekend include Colombia with $1.3 million, India with $1.3 million, and Peru with $900,000. It saw strong holdovers in Mexico ($1.7 million), Korea ($1.4 million), Russia ($1.4 million), and Malaysia ($1.2 million).

Depending on it's overseas longevity, I guess it could break even or make a small profit.
Old 07-22-18, 04:51 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Wondering if this is the kind of movie that might play better at home...
Old 07-25-18, 08:33 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Shame Incredibles 2 likely won't hit $600m, it'd be a hell of an achievement to have 3 $600m+ movies in the same calendar year. (But the fact the mouse had 3 x $600m+ films in a six month span is impressive as hell.)
Old 07-26-18, 08:28 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

It's at $562m now and I suspect it'll be around $570-$575m after the weekend. I wouldn't count it out.
Old 07-26-18, 09:28 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

True, I keep forgetting it's summer. Movie is still pulling $2m+ a day.

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