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Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

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Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Old 07-12-13, 01:49 PM
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Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

And let's start off immediately with Scott Mendelson's commentary that it's not 'Pacific Rim' vs. 'Grown Ups 2' after all:

It doesn’t matter which film tops the box office this weekend. It doesn’t matter if Despicable Me 2, Pacific Rim, or Grown Ups 2 ends up “number one” on Sunday morning. When it comes to box office, rank is a patently irrelevant statistic... None of these films are competing against each other. They are all competing against only themselves.

Box office is not poker. It’s not about new releases and holdovers attempting to make more money than the other movies in the marketplace. Box office is blackjack, where it’s only the film itself against ‘the house’. ‘The house’ in this case being an individual film’s budget and specific (reasonable) expectations about what would qualify as success...

And if Pacific Rim can open substantially higher than its tracking (and/or make a killing overseas), Warner Bros. surely won’t care too much if it makes more or less than the likes of Grown Ups 2 or Despicable Me 2.
So, the table set is then, for what? A $50MM weekend for Pacific Rim to be considered succesful?

<hr>

Early Saturday estimates from Deadline:

1. Grown-Ups 2 (Sony) NEW [Runs 3,491] PG13
Friday $16.5M, Weekend $46.0M

2. Despicable Me 2 (Illumination/Universal) Week 2 [Runs 4,003] PG
Friday $15.0M (-56%), Weekend $47.0M, Cume $230.0M

3. Pacific Rim (Legendary/Warner Bros) NEW [Runs 3,275] PG13
Friday $13.5M, Weekend $37.0M

4. The Heat (Fox) Week 3 [Runs 3,128] R
Friday $4.2M, Weekend $13.0M, Cume $111.4M

5. The Lone Ranger (Disney) Week 2 [Runs 3,904] PG13
Friday $3.4M (-68%), Weekend $10.4M, Cume $70.5M

6. Monsters University (Pixar/Disney) Week 4 [Runs 3,142] G
Friday $3.3M, Weekend $10.5M, Cume $237.6M

7. World War Z (Paramount) Week 4 [Runs 3,003] PG13
Friday $2.8M, Weekend $9.3M, Cume $177.0M

8. White House Down (Columbia/Sony) Week 3 [Runs 2,566] PG13
Friday $1.8M, Weekend $6.0M, Cume $62.8M

9. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 2 [Runs 892] R
Friday $1.5M (-59%), Weekend $4.7M, Cume $26.1M

10. Man Of Steel (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 5 [Runs 2,150] PG13
Friday $1.4M, Weekend $5.0M, Cume $281.2M

Last edited by The Bus; 07-13-13 at 09:03 AM.
Old 07-12-13, 01:53 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Moving on to Nikki Finke's box office update:

Few tentpoles this summer and even this year have prompted more uninformed box office forecasting and just amateurish speculation than Pacific Rim. Headlines like “It’ll tank!” or “It’ll triumph!”, sometimes within 24 hours of one another, ignore the fact that tracking is ridiculously unreliable...

Warner Bros says Legendary Pictures’ Pacific Rim opened #1 in all 7 Asian markets on Thursday grossing a total $3.7M from 2,157 screens despite a crowded international marketplace. Korea made $1.4M from 961 screens, Taiwan: $611K from 199 screens, Thailand $559K from 273 screens, Malaysia $348K from 207 screens, The Philippines $283K from 277 screens, Indonesia $249K from 168 screens, Singapore $240K from 72 screens. More in the morning…

Official domestic grosses are in for Thursday late shows and Friday midnights. Warner Bros says Legendary Pictures’ Pacific Rim overperformed with $3.6M - equal to last month’s late shows for World War Z which went on to earn an all-inclusive Thursday/Friday gross of $25.2M and weekend of $66.4M. I’ve learned the 3D ratio is a strong 52% “and the largest ratio of a wide release for a very long time” according to an exec.
Old 07-12-13, 01:56 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

With a production budget of $190 million, I'm not sure a $50 million opening for Pacific Rim would be considered a major success. I think the geeks will see it Friday night and then it'll be interesting to see if it gets a Saturday bump. Either way, next weekend will tell us if it's going to disappoint financially.
Old 07-12-13, 01:58 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

And Box Office Mojo has this:

So far this Summer, three expensive non-sequels have underperformed—After Earth, White House Down and The Lone Ranger all opened under $30 million. The main exception has been World War Z, which unexpectedly debuted north of $66 million last month. While Pacific Rim has been battling reports of poor tracking for the past few weeks, online ticket seller Fandango reported this morning that the movie is actually outselling World War Z through the same point. While that figure is probably skewed by rabid Guillermo Del Toro fans, it still confirms that Pacific Rim will open to at least $30 million, which Warner Bros. says they would be happy with.
So it looks like anything in the $30–40MM range would be OK/good, and anything approaching World War Z levels would be very, very good. For comparison, Hellboy II opened at $35MM.

Interesting that Del Toro's biggest film so far has been Blade II.
Old 07-12-13, 02:03 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema View Post
With a production budget of $190 million, I'm not sure a $50 million opening for Pacific Rim would be considered a major success. I think the geeks will see it Friday night and then it'll be interesting to see if it gets a Saturday bump. Either way, next weekend will tell us if it's going to disappoint financially.
I agree but I think that they are now measuring success taking into account not only tracking for this film but a summer loaded with big failures.
Old 07-12-13, 02:15 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

This summer has just been flat loaded.

Iron Man 3 has made $406.6m
Man of Steel has over $276m
Fast and Furious 6 has over $235m
Monsters University has over $227m
Star Trek Into Darkness has over $220m
Despicable Me 2 has already sprinted to $184m and looks unlikely to slow down
World War Z is up at $167m
even The Great Gatsby has made over $143m

And then there's also been Now You See Me ($111m), The Hangover 3 ($111m), Epic, The Heat (already at $98m), This Is The End ($88m so far), The Purge which opened huge, White House Down, etc;

Then we have Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2 this week, The Conjuring, RIPD, Red 2 and Turbo next week, The Wolverine the week after that, 2 Guns and The Smurfs 2 after that, Elysium, Percy Jackson 2, Planes, We're the Millers after that, followed by Kickass 2, The World's end, Mortal Instruments, etc;

Deadline updated the headline to:
‘Pacific Rim’ Opening To Mid $40sM And ‘Grown-Ups 2′ Low $40sM, But ‘Despicable Me 2′ Looking #1 Again; Legendary’s Thriller $7.8M Foreign Opening Day

Last edited by RichC2; 07-12-13 at 02:46 PM.
Old 07-12-13, 04:05 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

To be fair After Earth and White House Down just look stupid. So far there have been only a couple of movies I've seen in the theaters Iron Man 3 and This Is The End not because the other movies look bad but there's just better programming on tv during the summer and I don't have to leave the apartment.
Old 07-12-13, 07:30 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

$14.3 - $14.6m on Friday for both Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim
Old 07-12-13, 07:53 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Huh? Friday isn't over yet.

Using predictions instead of actuals just seems like a waste of time.
Old 07-12-13, 09:15 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Bombs away! In all seriousness, 40+ isn't going to cut it for PR I'm afraid. (I held out hope for 60+ given last night's numbers) Didn't care for the film but I don't want it to be a laughing stock either.
Old 07-12-13, 09:19 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

It was expected to be $25m, so I think they'll be happy with $40 plus, not a bomb but it won't be a huge success. Plus it should do well overseas.

Last edited by RichC2; 07-12-13 at 09:28 PM.
Old 07-12-13, 11:06 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

I'll be adding $10 to the Grown Ups 2 take.

Where's the poll for Grown Ups 2?
Old 07-12-13, 11:32 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Originally Posted by Artman View Post
Bombs away! In all seriousness, 40+ isn't going to cut it for PR I'm afraid. (I held out hope for 60+ given last night's numbers) Didn't care for the film but I don't want it to be a laughing stock either.
Old 07-13-13, 06:08 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Deadline's early estimates now have Despicable Me 2 making between $44-$47 mil, Grown Ups 2 $43-$46 mil, and Pacific Rim at $35-$37 mil.
Old 07-13-13, 06:17 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

I thought at least $42-$45 million for PR.

Oh well, what are ya gonna do.
Old 07-13-13, 08:58 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Originally Posted by JumpCutz View Post
Oh well, what are ya gonna do.
Buy 10,000 tickets!
Old 07-13-13, 09:24 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Pacific Rim had a horrible marketing campaign overall, being sold like a Transformers vs Godzilla movie. I could have come up with better trailers/tv spots. Then again, I wonder how they could've sold it without being disingenuous. You can't sell it with the cast, because they didn't exactly have a lot of good lines to sell the film.

It will probably be a massive hit worldwide, especially with the Asian market, but it will be lucky to make it to $130m domestically. Not a complete bomb, but definitely disappointing no matter how you look at it.
Old 07-13-13, 09:40 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

I would be surprised if it does $130MM considering the opening this weekend.
Old 07-13-13, 09:45 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Sad but true these days, if you don't open huge it's tough to get anywhere anymore.
Old 07-13-13, 09:55 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

If PR has the same multiplier as Blade II and if this makes $37m this weekend, that would be $93.7m domestic total. Interestingly, that would make it GDT's highest grossing movie (unadjusted). Adjusted, his highest is Blade II ($112.5m).
Old 07-13-13, 10:02 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

PG-13 movies generally have a better hold than R rated flicks.
Old 07-13-13, 10:13 AM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Originally Posted by The Bus View Post
I would be surprised if it does $130MM considering the opening this weekend.
I was trying to be kind. I completely agree.
Old 07-13-13, 12:26 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
PG-13 movies generally have a better hold than R rated flicks.
True, but that was the best comparison I could find for a GDT movie. Couldn't use Hellboy II as its second weekend it got slaughtered against The Dark Knight (-70%) and had a horrid 2.2x multiplier total.

Even so, it might make it to $100m but it'll be close.
Old 07-13-13, 12:35 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Originally Posted by dan30oly View Post
I'll be adding $10 to the Grown Ups 2 take.

Where's the poll for Grown Ups 2?
Grown Ups 2 Reaction Poll (Pick One):
1. It sucked. I loathed it.
2. It was great! I have terrible taste in movies and like to troll film forums.
Old 07-13-13, 12:49 PM
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Re: Box Office July 12–14 — Robots vs. Monsters vs. Grown Ups vs. Minions

Originally Posted by TheMovieman View Post
If PR has the same multiplier as Blade II and if this makes $37m this weekend, that would be $93.7m domestic total. Interestingly, that would make it GDT's highest grossing movie (unadjusted). Adjusted, his highest is Blade II ($112.5m).
Unfortunately for Pacific rim, the fall off will be greater. (Probably 70%) The fan boy push is over. Pacific Rim will be lucky to hit $90 million domestically.

Blade II's second weekend competition was Panic Room, The Rookie and the third week of Ice Age. Pacific Rim's second week will be Red 2, RIPD, Despicable Me 2 (3rd week), The Conjuring and Turbo.

Turbo or Despicable Me 2 will take the top spot, while the Conjuring, Red 2 and RIPD will pull most people away from Pacific Rim. I don't see any of the new films doing more than $25 to $30 million, except Turbo. (Maybe $50 to $55 million.)

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