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The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

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The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Old 05-25-12, 02:08 PM
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The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

I've been sitting in front of a computer trying to think of a witty title for this weekend's thread. Fuck it, it's Memorial Day. How many of us are going to be at a computer once we get off work today?



'MERICA.

Originally Posted by Deadline Hollywood
This will be the first weekend in a month that Marvel’s The Avengers has not dominated North American box office as #1. Instead, Sony Pictures’ Men in Black 3 is anticipated to top today at a giant release in 4,248 runs for the start of Memorial Weekend as Will Smith returns to the cineplex after a long hiatus. This is his first major starring role in four years, and what could have been a tired franchise was freshened by a time travel plot and Josh Brolin. The studio just announced the scifi comedy made $1.5M for its first midnight showings in 2,233 locations calling it “Good. Expect a big day today, and kids to drive a huge Saturday-Sunday-Monday.” Hollywood believes the popular laugher can scare up as much as $80M-$90M domestic and north of $200M worldwide for the four-day holiday. Meanwhile Alcon Entertainment’s horror genre acquisition Chernobyl Diaries distributed domestically by Warner Bros posted a larger than expected midnight opening with $525K from 1,325 locations. “This result is at the very high end of all horror comps,” an exec emailed me. ”Stay tuned… It could beat tracking for the weekend.” Immediately Hollywood began revising up its $15M estimates for the film whose theater count is 2,433 this weekend.
Old 05-25-12, 02:37 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Me, since I work tomorrow. Then it's a 4-day Sun-Wed weekend. Woop. Woop.

No doubt MIB 3 will be tops, but I think Avengers will still have a solid #.

Even though Chernobyl Diaries looked lame, horror fans are desperate right now, so I can see this having a decent opening. With horror on the backburner for most studios at the moment, the few publicized titles that are getting out there seem to do well thanks to the drought. Then, studios will see this, demand more horror, and we'll have a glut of crap again with a few gems in the mix.
Old 05-25-12, 02:38 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Me, since I have no life and no prospects.
Old 05-25-12, 03:26 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Me, since I have to finish up work for my classes. Really hope to be free by tomorrow night.
Old 05-25-12, 03:29 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

I will be here most of the weekend. Then at karaoke and the beach Sunday night through Monday. In my mind, I'm already gone...
Old 05-25-12, 04:10 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Me, since i'll be playing Diablo
Old 05-26-12, 01:27 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Originally Posted by Deadline Hollywood
FRIDAY*10 PM UPDATE: A*lot is riding on this weekend’s totals for Will Smith (back at cineplexes after a 4-year hiatus) and Sony Pictures (reviving a*long dormant*franchise). So I can’t ignore when rival studios*claim that*Sony’s new #1 Memorial Weekend movie*Men in Black 3 is not looking quite as strong as*Hollywood thought domestically or internationally. At first this just seemed to be*sour grapes.*But now it’s clear that the scifi laugher looks to open in the range of $18M-$20M today and*only $65M to $75M for the 4-day North American holiday.*That’s not anywhere close to the $90M which Hollywood thought this popular franchise could open*its threequel. Even overseas, depending on who’s analyzing, MIB3 is a mixed bag. My Sony sources are quick to point out that it opened bigger in Russia than The Avengers. But rival studios tell me that “despite great tracking internationally, their midweek openings in Australia, France, Korea, and Germany are mostly behind Battleship or John Carter. Weird.” Those are*two comps which no studio wants to hear in the same sentence with its summer blockbuster.*The reason this is a problem is that MIB3 was very expensive to make.*The time travel elements of Etan Cohen’s*script had to be*re-worked by Jeff Nathanson who needed more time to pull off the tricky plot device.*So the film*shut down for*about six weeks, which is a rarity*for a major tentpole.*That caused the cost to skyrocket from a range of $225M (which is what Sony claims as the budget) to $300M (which is what rival studios say it really was). Between that and all the gross profit participants, every dollar counts.

Overseas, Sony claimed “some fantastic new openings around the world, led by Russia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia. Highlights: Russia was*”a sensational, dominant #1 opening grossing $3.5M, accounting for 85% of the box office. This is bigger than the opening day of Avengers and is Sony’s biggest opening day of all time.”*In line with Russia’s opening, Ukraine scored a big $314K and headed to finish with 3 times the opening weekend box office of Mission: Impossible 4. United Arab Emirates took in $427K, tracking 50% above*Will Smith’s Hancock. Latin America also*tracked ahead of M:I4’s opening weekend with*the big markets of Brazil and Mexico*opening tonight.*Yesterday Argentina took in $217K,*Peru $134K, and*Chile $62K. In Asia, Sony had*strong openings in Malaysia $369K, Hong Kong $341K, and Singapore $290K which should*end up above M:I4 as well as Pirates 4 come Sunday.

Tonight Sony doesn’t sound worried. “All around the world, the feeling is there is a big family audience which will be coming out over the weekend. While Western Europe continues to work to overcome some beautiful weather, we have the benefit of a holiday on Monday in various markets which should help boost our Sunday results there.” As for North America,*”Give us sometime to breathe here and wait for the kids to come out. Today will be good but Sat-Sun-Mon great.”

Holdover Marvel’s The Avengers is a solid #2 with about $9.5M today and $45M this 4-day weekend as the Disney movie’s foreign gross hits $752M foreign and $478M domestic coming into this weekend for a global cume of $1.2B. Universal’s Battleship is still moving slow, now sinking 65% from a week ago with only $2.8M today and $13.5M for the 4-day holiday.*High hopes for Dark Castle’s Chernobyl Diaries*deflated today to $3M*for Joel Silver’s*production company distributed by Warner Bros, and should open this weekend with*$11M.*That’s also about what Paramount’s disappointing holdover The Dictator*should total. Finally, Warner Bros’ loser Dark Shadows may only muster $2.1M today and $9.5M.
Wow. $300 million production budget? For a 106-minute film? Christ, Battleship's $210 million budget looks pitiful right now.
Old 05-26-12, 03:25 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel View Post
Wow. $300 million production budget? For a 106-minute film? Christ, Battleship's $210 million budget looks pitiful right now.
That's OK, Sony's not that worried... After Universal compounds their horrible summer with Snow White and the Huntsman, everyone will be on Universal executive death watch.

fitprod
Old 05-26-12, 07:05 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Prediction: Sony will start to worry once the TASM numbers come in.
Old 05-26-12, 07:39 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Go, Marvel.
Old 05-26-12, 08:42 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

None of the sites I read were predicting $90 million for the 4-day total for MIB 3. All were guessing $70-$80 million, which is exactly where it is going to end up.
Old 05-26-12, 02:43 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

A month into the summer movie season and we have only ONE bonafide hit and three big and expensive misfires (Dark Shadows, Battleship, and MiB3). Not looking good so far, Hollywood!
Old 05-26-12, 02:45 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Originally Posted by Tom Creo View Post
Prediction: Sony will start to worry once the TASM numbers come in.
Prediction: Sony will be thrilled once the TASM numbers come in.
Old 05-26-12, 02:48 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Originally Posted by Defiant1 View Post
A month into the summer movie season and we have only ONE bonafide hit and three big and expensive misfires (Dark Shadows, Battleship, and MiB3). Not looking good so far, Hollywood!
Next weekend probably won't help much and looking ahead, the rest of June looks weak. Prometheus however could provide a nice bump.

However, Spider-man and Batman will come to the rescue in July.
Old 05-26-12, 03:44 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Friday:

1 mib 3 $18,000,000
2 marvel's the avengers $9,684,000
3 chernobyl diaries $3,540,000
4 battleship $3,000,000
5 the dictator $2,780,000
Old 05-26-12, 04:03 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Moonrise Kingdom will be HUGE (well at least in 4 theaters it will be)
Old 05-26-12, 04:05 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Originally Posted by musick View Post
Moonrise Kingdom will be HUGE (well at least in 4 theaters it will be)
Hipsters. Hipsters everywhere.

Full numbers for the top ten on Friday, plus estimates for the entire weekend:

Originally Posted by Deadline Hollywood
1. Men in Black 3 3D (Columbia/Sony) NEW [4,248 Theaters] PG13
Friday $18M, 4-Day Weekend $75M

2. Marvel’s The Avengers 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,918 Theaters] PG13
Friday $9.7M, 4-Day Weekend $45M, Cume $523.5M

3. Chernobyl Diaries (Alcon/Warner Bros) NEW [2,433
Theaters] R
Friday $3.5M, 4-Day Weekend $11.5M

3. Battleship (Universal) Week 2 [3,702 Theaters] PG13
Friday $3.0M (-65%), 4-Day Weekend $13.5M, Cume $43.3M

5. The Dictator (Paramount) Week 2 [3,014 Theaters] R
Friday $2.7M (-51%), 4-Day Weekend $11.5M, Cume $43.3M

6. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,021
Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.2M (-42%), 4-Day Weekend $9.0M, Cume $24.0M

6. Dark Shadows (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,404 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.0M, 4-Day Weekend $9.5M, Cume $65.0M

8. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight) Week 4 [1,233
Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.5M, 4-Day Weekend $9.0M, Cume $17.9M

9. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 10 [1,421 Theaters] PG13
Friday $565K, 4-Day Weekend $2.7M, Cume $395.7M

10. Think Like A Man (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 6 [786 Theaters] PG13
Friday $390K, 4-Day Weekend $2.0M, Cume $88.9M
BOM is reporting TWC's The Intouchables doing $28k in four locations (and a PSA of $7.2k). Surprising TWC is already reporting their numbers, but Focus isn't for Moonrise Kingdom.
Old 05-26-12, 04:09 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel View Post
Hipsters. Hipsters everywhere.
what is this "hipsters" thing you speak of? people that like quality filmmaking?
Old 05-26-12, 04:55 PM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Rushmore pre-dates the Hipster movement, so I don't buy that.
Old 05-27-12, 12:02 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

"Hipster" seems to mean "Something I don't get and I'm really upset that other people do..."

Battleship is the anti-hipster movie..l
Old 05-27-12, 02:23 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
Rushmore pre-dates the Hipster movement, so I don't buy that.
Actually, the hipster movement is traced back to late-90s Williamsburg. So Rushmore was released right when the birth of the movement was occurring. Honestly, the pinnacle of the movement wasn't until mid-2000s.

Anyway, Deadline just mentioned Sony is reporting a $19.6 million Saturday for MIB3 which is pathetic considering the original film pulled in more ($20.2 million) on its first Saturday. Fifteen years ago. When the average cost of a movie ticket was five dollars and there was no 3D surcharge. Sony is now looking at $70 million by time Monday's business ends.

The Avengers, like always, is over-performing and is now expecting a $48.5 million four-day weekend gross. I can honestly see it squeaking right to $50 million as long if the Saturday-to-Sunday drop is nearly non-existent.

Originally Posted by Deadline Hollywood
1. Men in Black 3 3D (Columbia/Sony) NEW [4,248 Theaters] PG13
Friday $18M, Saturday $19.6M
3-Day Weekend $56M, 4-Day Holiday $70M

2. Marvel’s The Avengers 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,918 Theaters] PG13
Friday $9.7M, Saturda $14.6M
3-Day Weekend $38M, 4-Day Holiday $48.5M, Cume $525.2M

3. Battleship (Universal) Week 2 [3,702 Theaters] PG13
Friday $3.0M (-65%), Saturday $4.0M
3-Day Weekend $10.7M, 4-Day Holiday $13.3M, Cume $46.8M

4. The Dictator (Paramount) Week 2 [3,014 Theaters] R
Friday $2.7M (-51%), Saturday $3.3M
3-Day Weekend $9.2M, 4-Day Holiday $11.5M, Cume $43.3M

5. Dark Shadows 3D (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,404 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.0M, Saturday $2.7M
3-Day Weekend $7.4M, 4-Day Holiday $9.4M, Cume $64.9M

6. Chernobyl Diaries (Alcon/Warner Bros) NEW [2,433
Theaters] R
Friday $3.5M, Saturday $2.3M
3-Day Weekend $7.9M, 4-Day Holiday $9.2M

7. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,021
Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.2M (-42%), Saturday $2.6M
3-Day Weekend $7.0M, 4-Day Holiday $8.7M, Cume $23.7M
to Chernobyl Diaries Friday-to-Saturday drop.

Last edited by Matthew Chmiel; 05-27-12 at 02:29 AM.
Old 05-27-12, 07:34 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Re: Men in Black 3

But rival studios tell me that “despite great tracking internationally, their midweek openings in Australia, France, Korea, and Germany are mostly behind Battleship or John Carter. Weird.”
Old 05-27-12, 07:43 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel View Post
Actually, the hipster movement is traced back to late-90s Williamsburg. So Rushmore was released right when the birth of the movement was occurring. Honestly, the pinnacle of the movement wasn't until mid-2000s.

Anyway, Deadline just mentioned Sony is reporting a $19.6 million Saturday for MIB3 which is pathetic considering the original film pulled in more ($20.2 million) on its first Saturday. Fifteen years ago. When the average cost of a movie ticket was five dollars and there was no 3D surcharge. Sony is now looking at $70 million by time Monday's business ends.

The Avengers, like always, is over-performing and is now expecting a $48.5 million four-day weekend gross. I can honestly see it squeaking right to $50 million as long if the Saturday-to-Sunday drop is nearly non-existent.



to Chernobyl Diaries Friday-to-Saturday drop.
Yeah, I have family in the area, familiar with it.

Friday-to-Saturday drops are pretty normal with R-rated horror movies, Chernobyl is no different, but for once it goes along with an exceptionally poor audience rating. MIB 3 is doing pretty solid business for a 10 year sequel to a horrible movie, Avengers is making a killing. Men in Black 1 opened on 4th of July weekend in '97, in a pre-"bombard you every week with a new special effects extravaganza!!!" market (that year, 15 movies broke $100m, 3 broke $200m) while Will Smith was a rising star. Definitely had a lot more going for it.

Unfortunately for Contact is decided to come out the weekend after MIB, which seems odd. Nothing about that one really shouted "Summer movie" though it was a quality flick.

Last edited by RichC2; 05-27-12 at 07:49 AM.
Old 05-27-12, 10:33 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

MIB 3 basically followed the "Batman and Robin" of the series. I think the numbers are okay. It may hold up pretty well considering June is a rather lean month.
Old 05-27-12, 10:47 AM
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Re: The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)

The Avengers will make more in the 4 day weekend then Battleship has made in 2 weeks

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