Originally Posted by Deadline Hollywood

This will be the first weekend in a month that Marvel’s The Avengers has not dominated North American box office as #1. Instead, Sony Pictures’ Men in Black 3 is anticipated to top today at a giant release in 4,248 runs for the start of Memorial Weekend as Will Smith returns to the cineplex after a long hiatus. This is his first major starring role in four years, and what could have been a tired franchise was freshened by a time travel plot and Josh Brolin. The studio just announced the scifi comedy made $1.5M for its first midnight showings in 2,233 locations calling it “Good. Expect a big day today, and kids to drive a huge Saturday-Sunday-Monday.” Hollywood believes the popular laugher can scare up as much as $80M-$90M domestic and north of $200M worldwide for the four-day holiday. Meanwhile Alcon Entertainment’s horror genre acquisition Chernobyl Diaries distributed domestically by Warner Bros posted a larger than expected midnight opening with $525K from 1,325 locations. “This result is at the very high end of all horror comps,” an exec emailed me. ”Stay tuned… It could beat tracking for the weekend.” Immediately Hollywood began revising up its $15M estimates for the film whose theater count is 2,433 this weekend.

Originally Posted by Deadline Hollywood

FRIDAY*10 PM UPDATE: A*lot is riding on this weekend’s totals for Will Smith (back at cineplexes after a 4-year hiatus) and Sony Pictures (reviving a*long dormant*franchise). So I can’t ignore when rival studios*claim that*Sony’s new #1 Memorial Weekend movie*Men in Black 3 is not looking quite as strong as*Hollywood thought domestically or internationally. At first this just seemed to be*sour grapes.*But now it’s clear that the scifi laugher looks to open in the range of $18M-$20M today and*only $65M to $75M for the 4-day North American holiday.*That’s not anywhere close to the $90M which Hollywood thought this popular franchise could open*its threequel. Even overseas, depending on who’s analyzing, MIB3 is a mixed bag. My Sony sources are quick to point out that it opened bigger in Russia than The Avengers. But rival studios tell me that “despite great tracking internationally, their midweek openings in Australia, France, Korea, and Germany are mostly behind Battleship or John Carter. Weird.” Those are*two comps which no studio wants to hear in the same sentence with its summer blockbuster.*The reason this is a problem is that MIB3 was very expensive to make.*The time travel elements of Etan Cohen’s*script had to be*re-worked by Jeff Nathanson who needed more time to pull off the tricky plot device.*So the film*shut down for*about six weeks, which is a rarity*for a major tentpole.*That caused the cost to skyrocket from a range of $225M (which is what Sony claims as the budget) to $300M (which is what rival studios say it really was). Between that and all the gross profit participants, every dollar counts.

Overseas, Sony claimed “some fantastic new openings around the world, led by Russia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia. Highlights: Russia was*”a sensational, dominant #1 opening grossing $3.5M, accounting for 85% of the box office. This is bigger than the opening day of Avengers and is Sony’s biggest opening day of all time.”*In line with Russia’s opening, Ukraine scored a big $314K and headed to finish with 3 times the opening weekend box office of Mission: Impossible 4. United Arab Emirates took in $427K, tracking 50% above*Will Smith’s Hancock. Latin America also*tracked ahead of M:I4’s opening weekend with*the big markets of Brazil and Mexico*opening tonight.*Yesterday Argentina took in $217K,*Peru $134K, and*Chile $62K. In Asia, Sony had*strong openings in Malaysia $369K, Hong Kong $341K, and Singapore $290K which should*end up above M:I4 as well as Pirates 4 come Sunday.

Tonight Sony doesn’t sound worried. “All around the world, the feeling is there is a big family audience which will be coming out over the weekend. While Western Europe continues to work to overcome some beautiful weather, we have the benefit of a holiday on Monday in various markets which should help boost our Sunday results there.” As for North America,*”Give us sometime to breathe here and wait for the kids to come out. Today will be good but Sat-Sun-Mon great.”

Holdover Marvel’s The Avengers is a solid #2 with about $9.5M today and $45M this 4-day weekend as the Disney movie’s foreign gross hits $752M foreign and $478M domestic coming into this weekend for a global cume of $1.2B. Universal’s Battleship is still moving slow, now sinking 65% from a week ago with only $2.8M today and $13.5M for the 4-day holiday.*High hopes for Dark Castle’s Chernobyl Diaries*deflated today to $3M*for Joel Silver’s*production company distributed by Warner Bros, and should open this weekend with*$11M.*That’s also about what Paramount’s disappointing holdover The Dictator*should total. Finally, Warner Bros’ loser Dark Shadows may only muster $2.1M today and $9.5M.

Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel

Wow. $300 million production budget? For a 106-minute film? Christ, Battleship's $210 million budget looks pitiful right now.

Originally Posted by Tom Creo

Prediction: Sony will start to worry once the TASM numbers come in.

Originally Posted by Defiant1

A month into the summer movie season and we have only ONE bonafide hit and three big and expensive misfires (Dark Shadows, Battleship, and MiB3). Not looking good so far, Hollywood!

Originally Posted by musick

Moonrise Kingdom will be HUGE (well at least in 4 theaters it will be)

Originally Posted by Deadline Hollywood

1. Men in Black 3 3D (Columbia/Sony) NEW [4,248 Theaters] PG13
Friday $18M, 4-Day Weekend $75M

2. Marvel’s The Avengers 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,918 Theaters] PG13
Friday $9.7M, 4-Day Weekend $45M, Cume $523.5M

3. Chernobyl Diaries (Alcon/Warner Bros) NEW [2,433
Theaters] R
Friday $3.5M, 4-Day Weekend $11.5M

3. Battleship (Universal) Week 2 [3,702 Theaters] PG13
Friday $3.0M (-65%), 4-Day Weekend $13.5M, Cume $43.3M

5. The Dictator (Paramount) Week 2 [3,014 Theaters] R
Friday $2.7M (-51%), 4-Day Weekend $11.5M, Cume $43.3M

6. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,021
Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.2M (-42%), 4-Day Weekend $9.0M, Cume $24.0M

6. Dark Shadows (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,404 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.0M, 4-Day Weekend $9.5M, Cume $65.0M

8. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight) Week 4 [1,233
Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.5M, 4-Day Weekend $9.0M, Cume $17.9M

9. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 10 [1,421 Theaters] PG13
Friday $565K, 4-Day Weekend $2.7M, Cume $395.7M

10. Think Like A Man (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 6 [786 Theaters] PG13
Friday $390K, 4-Day Weekend $2.0M, Cume $88.9M

Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel

Hipsters. Hipsters everywhere.

Originally Posted by RichC2

Rushmore pre-dates the Hipster movement, so I don't buy that.

Originally Posted by Deadline Hollywood

1. Men in Black 3 3D (Columbia/Sony) NEW [4,248 Theaters] PG13
Friday $18M, Saturday $19.6M
3-Day Weekend $56M, 4-Day Holiday $70M

2. Marvel’s The Avengers 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,918 Theaters] PG13
Friday $9.7M, Saturda $14.6M
3-Day Weekend $38M, 4-Day Holiday $48.5M, Cume $525.2M

3. Battleship (Universal) Week 2 [3,702 Theaters] PG13
Friday $3.0M (-65%), Saturday $4.0M
3-Day Weekend $10.7M, 4-Day Holiday $13.3M, Cume $46.8M

4. The Dictator (Paramount) Week 2 [3,014 Theaters] R
Friday $2.7M (-51%), Saturday $3.3M
3-Day Weekend $9.2M, 4-Day Holiday $11.5M, Cume $43.3M

5. Dark Shadows 3D (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,404 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.0M, Saturday $2.7M
3-Day Weekend $7.4M, 4-Day Holiday $9.4M, Cume $64.9M

6. Chernobyl Diaries (Alcon/Warner Bros) NEW [2,433
Theaters] R
Friday $3.5M, Saturday $2.3M
3-Day Weekend $7.9M, 4-Day Holiday $9.2M

7. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,021
Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.2M (-42%), Saturday $2.6M
3-Day Weekend $7.0M, 4-Day Holiday $8.7M, Cume $23.7M

Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel

Actually, the hipster movement is traced back to late-90s Williamsburg. So Rushmore was released right when the birth of the movement was occurring. Honestly, the pinnacle of the movement wasn't until mid-2000s.

Anyway, Deadline just mentioned Sony is reporting a $19.6 million Saturday for MIB3 which is pathetic considering the original film pulled in more ($20.2 million) on its first Saturday. Fifteen years ago. When the average cost of a movie ticket was five dollars and there was no 3D surcharge. Sony is now looking at $70 million by time Monday's business ends.

The Avengers, like always, is over-performing and is now expecting a $48.5 million four-day weekend gross. I can honestly see it squeaking right to $50 million as long if the Saturday-to-Sunday drop is nearly non-existent.



to Chernobyl Diaries Friday-to-Saturday drop.