Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Even though true summer doesn't start for another couple of months, Hollywood starts it early at the beginning of May this year. I'm going to do domestic box office predictions for the major tentpole movies for simplicity's sake but feel free to make international predictions.

The Avengers - $300M. First out of the gate. Safe for a couple weeks. The Iron Man franchise is by far the strongest of the four that are a part of this movie.
Battleship - $150M. This looks terrible. Not as big a bomb as John Carter but still disappointing.
Men in Black III - $180M. Ten years since the last one. Is there demand for this?
Snow White and the Huntsman - $110M. Cool trailer plus the promise of action will help.
Madagascar 3 - $160M
Prometheus - $150M. Not sure if this will be PG-13 or R, which will affect its gross. Awesome trailer but not sure how it will translate to the general public.
That's My Boy - $125M
Rock of Ages - $100M
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - $80M
Brave - $250M. Hopefully Pixar will rebound after Cars 2. "Female" storyline will limit gross.
G.I. Joe: Retaliation - $125M
Magic Mike - $70M
The Amazing Spider-Man - $315M. The previous three movies made a ton. This one won't make quite as much with an untested lead.
Ice Age 4 - $200M
Ted - $100M
The Dark Knight Rises - $400M. No megahype since no actors died prior to release so it won't equal the last one. Still, there is enough anticipation to win the box office crown for the summer and quite possibly the year.
The Bourne Legacy - $150M. No Matt Damon will curtail the gross.
Total Recall - $100M. This is an optimistic prediction as this could also tank. Colin Farrell is risky as the lead.
The Expendables 2 - $90M. The first one had tons of online hype but only grossed $100M. The promise of more Willis and Schwarzenegger will bring out the fans on opening weekend so we'll see.

So my top 3 are The Dark Knight Rises ($400M), The Amazing Spider-Man ($315M) and The Avengers ($300M).

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Dark Knight - 395 million
Avengers - 360 million
Spider man - 275 million
MIIIB - 240 million
Brave - 215 million

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

What the hell is Magic Mike?

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

The Dark Knight, The Avengers and Brave are going 1-3 respectively. Everything else is kinda a crapshoot (pun intended).

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

It's a movie about male strippers. There is no way the movie is going to make $70 million. Maybe $30 million if it is lucky.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

$100 million plus.

Its got the Bridesmaids crowd written all over it.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Clearly you've never heard of women.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

TDKR - 435
Avengers - 325
Spiderman - 275
MIB3 - 235
Brave - 225

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Avengers 510
TDKR 375
MIB 210
Spiderman 199

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Avengers 350
TDKR 345
Brave 220
Prometheus 195
Spiderman 190

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

It's also the new Sodebergh and 30M seems about right.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

:lol: Cool we can quote this with the Act of Valor prediction.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

:lol:

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

I just really really hope Spiderman TANKS. like studio is out of business TANKS.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Why?

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

The Dark Knight Rises - $350m
The Avengers $330
Prometheus $275m
Brave $265 (pixar?)
Madagascar 3 $165m
Men in Black III $150m
Snow White and the Huntsman $120m
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - $100m
G.I. Joe: Retaliation $100m
The Amazing Spider-Man $100m
Ice Age 4 $95m
The Expendables 2 $95m
The Bourne Legacy $80m
Total Recall $40m
Battleship $35m

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

I would love for that to happen. It looks terrible. But apparently its kicking ass overseas in just about every market.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

I actually think this will be better than THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. Perhaps not at the box office, but in terms of fan satisfaction/critical reviews.

Any predictions for the surprise hit/dark horse of the summer? I think it's going to be Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

It's always fun to see how wrong many of us were come Sept.

The Avengers - $372m
TDKR - $405m
Spider-Man - $178m
Battleship - $104m
Prometheus - $133m
MIB III - $152m
G.I. Joe 2 - $113m
Expendables 2 - $87m
Abe Lincoln: VH - $63m
Brave - $192m

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Out of all the films due for wide release this summer:

The Avengers: $325 million +
Dark Shadows: $100 million +
The Dictator: $80 million +
Battleship: $75 - 100 million
What To Expect When You're Expecting: $75 million +
Chernobyl Diaries: $45 - 70 million
MIB 3: $140 - 165 million

Battlefield America: $10 million or less
Snow White and the Huntsman: $75 - 100 million
Madagascar 3: $125 - 150 million
Prometheus: $150 - 175 million
Rock of Ages: $115 - 140 million
That's My Boy: $50 - 75 million
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter: $100 - 125 million
Brave: $250 million +
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World: $50 million or less
G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $200 million +
Magic Mike: $100 million +
People Like Us: $50 million or less
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection: $50 million or less

The Amazing Spider-Man: $225 million +
Savages: $60 - 85 million
Ice Age: Continental Drift: $150 - 175 million
Ted: $100 million +
The Dark Knight Rises: $400 million +
Neighborhood Watch: $100 million +
Step Up Revolution: $50 million or less

The Bourne Legacy: $125 - 150 million
Diary of a Wimpy Kids: Dog Days: $50 - 75 million
Total Recall: $75 - 100 million
The Campaign: $100 million +
Hope Srpings: $50 million or less
The Odd Life of Timothy Green: $50 million or less
The Expendables 2: $100 - 125 million
ParaNorman: $60 - 85 million
Sparkle: $50 million or less
The Apparition: $50 million or less
Premium Rush: $50 - 75 million
7500: $50 million or less
Lawless: $50 million or less
The Possession: $50 million or less

Looking at the list of films, sadly, this is one of the more rougher summers in a while despite a few bright spots (The Avengers, Prometheus, The Dark Knight Rises, etc).

My "wild cards" are that, What To Expect When You're Expecting, Magic Mike, Ted, Neighborhood Watch and The Campaign.

• Lionsgate has been advertising What To Expect When You're Expecting to both men and women and its working quite well. If only their marketing department was smart enough not to release a Madea movie on 4th of July weekend.
• Magic Mike has good looking men practically naked for the entire running time. Channing Tatum, Alex Pettyfer, Matthew McConaughey, Matt Boner, and Joe Manganiello? Hell, I might even go gay for this one.
• Ted could do gangbusters out of nowhere, especially if its hilarious.
• Neighborhood Watch could do well if rated R. Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn and Jonah Hill all have more success with their R-rated fare rather than their PG-13 material.
• The Campaign: Will Ferrell and Zach Galinfakis playing presidential candidates? Done.

However, I honestly don't know how Prometheus is going to do. The internet buzz is through the roof, but outside of the internet?

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Ugh. I just don't see how anybody, even those with less "distinguished" tastes can think this looks good. It looks atrocious. I really hope it flops over here.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

Thanks to Matt Chmiel for doing the heavy lifting...

The Avengers: $350 million +
Dark Shadows: $90 million +
The Dictator: $40 million +
Battleship: $80 million
What To Expect When You're Expecting: $60 million +
MIB 3: $225 million
Snow White and the Huntsman: $45 million
Madagascar 3: $175 million
Prometheus: $150 million
Rock of Ages: $110 million
That's My Boy: $45 million
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter: $100 million +
Brave: $170 million +
G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $80 million +
The Amazing Spider-Man: $175 million +
Ice Age: Continental Drift: $210 million
The Dark Knight Rises: $350 million +
The Bourne Legacy: $90 million
Diary of a Wimpy Kids: Dog Days: $65 million
Total Recall: $80 million
The Expendables 2: $85 million

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

The Dark Knight Rises: $400 million (HUGE opening, but Bane/Catwoman won't sell nearly as well as The Joker.)
The Avengers: $370 million ($150 million opening, strong word of mouth)
The Amazing Spider-man: $325 million (Yes, a new cast and crew. Yes, people hated the last one. Yes, too early for a reboot. But, this is still Spider-man, who is still freaking mega popular. I think this will surprise some people.)
Brave: $225 million (No idea what this is, but it's Pixar)
G.I. Joe 2: $200 million (The Rock + a cool looking Cobra Commander + no Stephen Sommers = $$$$)
Men in Black III: $180 million (zzzz.....zzzz....zzzz....zzzz....zzzz....zzzz)
Dark Shadows: $175 million (I think this will be a surprise blockbuster.)
Prometheus: $175 million (I hope at least that and more based on the awesome trailer.)
Neighorhood Watch: $165 million (This Summer's comedy blockbuster.)
The Bourne Legacy: $150 million (This will be another pleasant surprise. Very solid trailer.)
Battleship: $120 million (Won't sink as bad as Poseidon did in the "2nd Summer movie" slot)
Snow White and the Huntsman: $110 million (This year's could bomb/could surprise movie.)
That's My Boy: $100 million (I HATE new/fat/lazy/mail it in Adam Sandler. But I hate his fans more because they'll forgive him for Jack and Jill push this shit past the century mark.)
Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter: $80 million (Something has to under-perform besides Battleship.)

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

I think many of us will be short on our Avengers predictions.

Re: Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions!
 

I think Avengers just might do better than we expected....

I'm kind of hoping Prometheus delivers more than people are predicting, but if it gets an R rating, I think crossing $100 million might be a worthy feat.