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Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

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Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Old 07-22-11, 04:59 PM
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Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

It's off to a good start. Per Boxoffice.com:

The latest superhero film to open this summer is off to a promising start. Captain America's $4 million haul compares favorably to the midnight openings of Thor ($3.3 million), X-Men: First Class ($3.37 million) and Green Lantern $3.35 million.
Seems most are predicting anywhere from $55 mil - $65 mil for Cap. And are expecting Harry Potter to drop in the 60-65% range. Box Office Mojo is only predicting $48 mil for HP, which would result in nearly a 72% drop. I don't think it'll lose that much business, but I think Cap will win the weekend by at least $5 mil.

New Moon opened to $142 mil and dropped 70% in weekend 2 to finish with $42 mil. Is Harry Potter that front loaded?
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Old 07-22-11, 05:18 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

I was surprised at the theater today they had Captain America playing on one of the smaller rooms. They still had their biggest screens held for Harry Potter.
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Old 07-22-11, 06:25 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Of course HP is front-loaded. The last one opened to $125m and didn't crack $300m, so I'd say a drop anywhere from 60%-70% doesn't seem too out of line. Based on the Fri-Sat drop, and midweek drops, I think 65% sounds reasonable.

If the positive WOM I've heard on Cpt. America holds up, I'd say it will probably hit around $63m for the weekend.
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Old 07-22-11, 06:45 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

I agree, given the good WOM and the solid midnight showings, I'd expect Cap to hit the high end of estimates.
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Old 07-23-11, 05:53 AM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Looks like Cap will win the weekend easily. Per Deadline:

Distributor Paramount had been expecting Marvel/Disney's Captain America: The First Avenger to open with a $60+M weekend. But now my sources say it's looking more like $66 million -- which would better Thor's $65.7M. "This could be the biggest superhero movie of the summer," a Paramount exec tells me tonight about Friday's $26M North American grosses. That includes $4M Friday midnights from 2,000 locations
Right behind Captain America is Warner Bros holdover Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 which is on target for $16M today and a $50+M second weekend.
In third place is Sony/Screen Gems' Friends With Benefits hitting the projected mark with $20M.......the rom-com with Mila Kunis and Justin Timberlake should open to $7M Friday.
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Old 07-23-11, 10:01 AM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

71% drop for HP? Gotta laugh at the people who thought this would clear $500m based on the OW.
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Old 07-23-11, 11:54 AM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Early weekend estimates from Boxoffice.com.

1 Captain America: The First Avenger $64,000,000 -- 3,715 -- $17,227 $64,000,000 1 Paramount
2 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II $47,000,000 -72% 4,375 0 $10,743 $273,117,069 2 Warner Bros.
3 Friends With Benefits $18,000,000 -- 2,926 -- $6,152 $18,000,000 1 Sony / Screen Gems
4 Horrible Bosses $12,000,000 -32% 3,104 -30 $3,866 $82,682,384 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
5 Transformers: Dark of the Moon $11,800,000 -45% 3,375 -542 $3,496 $325,589,450 4 Paramount / DreamWorks
6 Zookeeper $9,200,000 -25% 3,215 -267 $2,862 $59,704,200 3 Sony / Columbia
7 Cars 2 $5,800,000 -31% 2,668 -581 $2,174 $176,519,438 5 Disney
8 Winnie the Pooh $5,000,000 -36% 2,405 0 $2,079 $17,432,251 2 Disney
9 Bad Teacher $2,600,000 -50% 2,034 -625 $1,278 $94,354,763 5 Sony / Columbia
Despite the huge drop by HP, it's currently about $54 mil ahead of Part 1 at the same release point. Good hold by Transformers considering the competition. HP will be about $45 mil ahead of TF3 at the same point, but I think HP will keep having big drops and fall short of TF3's final total.

Last edited by Mr. Cinema; 07-23-11 at 11:59 AM.
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Old 07-23-11, 02:19 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema View Post
Early weekend estimates from Boxoffice.com.



Despite the huge drop by HP, it's currently about $54 mil ahead of Part 1 at the same release point. Good hold by Transformers considering the competition. HP will be about $45 mil ahead of TF3 at the same point, but I think HP will keep having big drops and fall short of TF3's final total.
It'll be close... But HP should pass Transformers 3. It should draw significantly more during weekdays than Transformers 3 the next few weeks. (Any remaining weekday with $1.5 million will be good for Transformers, and it only gets one week of that...)

Since Transformer 3 is going to fall farther behind Transformers 2 this weekend, I'd be surprised if the film ultimately hits $360 million.

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Old 07-23-11, 08:08 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

I tried to go to a 2 p.m. Screening of Captain America today, only to find it sold out. It was the 2D showing. I ended up seeing Transformers 3, which stunk.
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Old 07-23-11, 08:13 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

There was a good crowd for the 10:45 AM showing of Captain America this morning in Temecula, CA. Probably 85% - 90% full.

It was a really, really good movie and the crowd loved it.
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Old 07-23-11, 08:46 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Originally Posted by KillerCannibal View Post
71% drop for HP? Gotta laugh at the people who thought this would clear $500m based on the OW.
I just want something to beat Avatar, anything please! (except Avatar 2)
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Old 07-23-11, 09:32 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Went to an 11:30 am showing of Captain America and it was a pretty decent turnout for a matinee -- not a sell out, but a bit more than I remember with Thor. As I was exiting the theater, I was surprised by the huge line of people just standing/sitting in the hallway waiting for one screening of Harry Potter to let out so they could enter the auditorium for the next one. It was the same last weekend as well - I don't think I'd ever seen people do that before.
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Old 07-23-11, 10:05 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt View Post
I just want something to beat Avatar, anything please! (except Avatar 2)
Just curious why you care.
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Old 07-23-11, 11:15 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Originally Posted by whoopdido View Post
Just curious why you care.
Eh, just cause I didn't like it.
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Old 07-24-11, 01:05 AM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Nothing will ever beat Avatar, for at least a decade

Im not sure you understand how untouchable it is.

Even Titanic is still untouchable, and it made 1 Billion less

At least until a director that isn't James Cameron understands that theres an audience beyond fanboys
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Old 07-24-11, 01:21 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Estimates from Box Office Mojo:

1 N Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $65,827,000 - 3,715 - $17,719 $65,827,000 $140 1
2 1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $48,065,000 -71.6% 4,375 - $10,986 $274,182,000 - 2
3 N Friends with Benefits SGem $18,500,000 - 2,926 - $6,323 $18,500,000 $35 1
4 2 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $12,000,000 -43.7% 3,375 -542 $3,556 $325,789,000 $195 4
5 3 Horrible Bosses WB (NL) $11,720,000 -34.1% 3,104 -30 $3,776 $82,402,000 $35 3
6 4 Zookeeper Sony $8,700,000 -29.4% 3,215 -267 $2,706 $59,204,000 $80 3
7 5 Cars 2 BV $5,726,000 -31.9% 2,668 -581 $2,146 $176,445,000 $200 5
8 6 Winnie the Pooh BV $5,141,000 -34.6% 2,405 - $2,138 $17,573,000 $30 2
9 7 Bad Teacher Sony $2,600,000 -49.5% 2,034 -625 $1,278 $94,355,000 $20 5
10 10 Midnight in Paris SPC $1,899,000 +1.2% 621 -85 $3,058 $44,878,000 $30 10
11 11 Bridesmaids Uni. $1,346,000 -21.8% 680 -192 $1,979 $163,853,000 $32.5 11
12 8 Larry Crowne Uni. $1,030,000 -61.3% 1,035 -1,252 $995 $34,338,000 $30 4
Transformers 3 is up to $882 million worldwide. Harry Potter is already at $834.5 million worldwide after 10 days.
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Old 07-24-11, 02:00 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt View Post
I just want something to beat Avatar, anything please! (except Avatar 2)
Just look at Avatars weekend hold when it came out ... it's going to be hard to top that

Number 1 for 8 straight weekends, in the Top 10 for 16 weekends. And didn't fall out of the Top 20 until it's 24th weekend. And the Foreign numbers are even more crazy
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Old 07-24-11, 02:56 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Originally Posted by Sorraffy View Post
Just look at Avatars weekend hold when it came out ... it's going to be hard to top that

Number 1 for 8 straight weekends, in the Top 10 for 16 weekends. And didn't fall out of the Top 20 until it's 24th weekend. And the Foreign numbers are even more crazy
Titanic was also #1 for 15 weeks and in the top 10 for 26.

Those two will be on top for awhile.
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Old 07-25-11, 11:15 AM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Was going to see HP again this weekend but the group I was with just could not make a decision
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Old 07-25-11, 11:19 AM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Can FWB be considered a disappointment? I thought it would open closer to $30 mil.
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Old 07-25-11, 11:47 AM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema View Post
Transformers 3 is up to $882 million worldwide. Harry Potter is already at $834.5 million worldwide after 10 days.
Transformers' opening in China last weekend was $40 mil, which is a record there for an American film. It opens in Japan this weekend. I think it'll reach $1 billion.
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Old 07-27-11, 06:58 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Captain America has had strong Monday/Tuesday earnings. It's at $80.6 mil through yesterday, and up $4 mil on Thor at the same pace.

Transformers now has a worldwide total of $914 million. Harry Potter is at $881 mil.
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Old 07-27-11, 11:14 PM
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Re: Box Office 7/22-7/24: Will Captain America Be First in Ticket Sales?

Originally Posted by sauce07 View Post
Can FWB be considered a disappointment? I thought it would open closer to $30 mil.
No. It was expected to open around $20m.

Considering the similarities to another movie released this year, the fact the summer is somewhat ripe with R rated comedies for once and that neither Mila Kunis nor Justin Timberlake are big movie draws, it did quite well for itself.
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