Drexl

I think Hailee Steinfeld has the best chance at an upset.

The Bus

The producer of the documentary is accepting the award.

Jaymole

This is the first time in over 30 years that I am undecided about watching the Oscars. All the things I use to love most about the show have been taken away. The show has become less about the love of film, and more about the love of celebrity and higher ratings.

I use to get goose pimples as a kid/teenager waiting all day on Monday for the show to start that night...I wouldn't miss a second of the show. I would only turn the channel when a commercial came on so I can check the score of the NCAA basketball final (hard to believe that at one time they scheduled both of these events on the same night).

Knowing me, I will probably end up turning the show on for old times sake, but the thrill has gone.

gryffinmaster

I'd probably feel the same way if me and the lady didn't have a good time with it anyway. Really, it doesn't matter what wins or even what's going on during the oftentimes drawn-out ceremony. We just like to make a mini two-person even out of the thing, kick back with some good grub, and go with the flow. Since she's actually kept speed with me this year in regards to watching the nominated films (she's a big Black Swan and Social Network fan, as well as The Kids Are All Right), it'll be fun.

But I totally agree. Even though I dig Anne Hathaway and James Franco, I'm probably the least excited about the actual ceremony this year than I've previously been. Between all the near-certainties and the way the show's changed, the enthusiasm for the actual awards isn't really there.

Mr. Cinema

I'm picking Steinfeld for Supp. Actress. True Grit is very popular with 10 nominations and aside from Cinematography, this is the highest category where it could get rewarded. I think it'll end up with those 2 wins. It seems like more upsets happen in the Supp. categories. Firth and Portman are locks and I think Bale is safe.

Now, if there truly is a King's Sweep, then you'll see either Rush or Carter win. If both of them win, it's going to rack up tonight. But I think with so many really good movies released last year that we'll see them spread out the wins. I have King's Speech leading with 5. Social Network-4, Inception-3, Toy Story 3 and True Grit with 2 each.

OldBoy

would love to see this. she was amazing. the others, i think we've seen similar performances, more recently.

Supermallet

Hailee Steinfeld made that movie what it is. She and Nicole Kidman are the only two slam dunk performances I saw this year, where they were clearly a cut above what everyone else was doing.

fumanstan

Just noticed this, but seems ridiculously harsh on Franco given what the article says.

Mr. Cinema

I hope it helps that Steinfeld gave a true lead performance. I'd be fine with anyone but Carter winning.

Mr. Cinema

It's probably not happening, but I also hope Inception can pull an upset in Original Screenplay. With King's Speech the likely BP winner, it's probably taking that one. But I hope we get a big surprise here as we did last year when Precious shocked everyone and beat out Up in the Air.

Supermallet

I really can't believe that The King's Speech is the front runner for best picture. Movies like that are a dime a dozen.

Oh, and in regards to upsets, I really hope Eisenberg steals best actor out from under Firth (and I really liked Firth).

Mr. Cinema

Real person + disability + overcomes the odds + old fart dominated Academy + Weinstein backed film = front runner.

I liked all the Best Actor contenders this year. As much as I loved Social Network and Eisenberg, I'd go with Franco for Actor.

Supermallet

Franco was great as well.

King's Speech was Weinstein backed? 'Nuff said. It'll win.

I liked most of the nominees, except for Inception and Winter's Bone. Those two stick out like sore thumbs to me.

Mr. Cinema

Weinsteins were the distributors and are executive producers. This feels like the old Miramax days.

I just hope Fincher can end up winning. Hooper would go down as one of the worst Directing choices that I can remember. I just hope this plays out like 2002 when Rob Marshall lost to Polanski. Directing and Picture splits are rare, but most of the pundits are going that route this year.

dolphinboy

I enjoyed Winter's Bone more than The Social Network or The King's Speech (the two leading contenders to win Best Picture tonight).

If there's an upset, I hope it goes to Adams, but I'm even more convinced there won't be a single one.

Bening should have gotten hers for American Beauty and she's due, but I think a pregnant Portman and a desire to show some love to Black Swan almost guarantees her the win.

Terrible decision to let Franco and Hathaway host imo. Even if a comedian has a bad night, it's still usually funny enough to help me keep from nodding off.

Supermallet

I'm watching Get Low now and that easily should have taken Winter Bone's place.

Numanoid

I really don't understand the regard for Eisenberg's performance. Seemed to me like he was playing Jesse Eisenberg in the film, and not Zuckerberg. His reads were like a colder version of his Zombieland character. I think he just seems good because of the script, and not because of his performance (which was fine, just not as amazing as people think).

Supermallet

I liked his performance a lot when I saw it, then I listened to him on the commentary and got an even greater appreciation for what he was doing. I think there's a lot of subtlety in his performance, and that's why I hope he wins.

dolphinboy

Already saw Get Low (kind of difficult to judge the movie unless you've seen the entire film, since the climax is at the end) and think Winter's Bone was superior in almost every way other than in performances where it was even.

Clearly, Duvall, Murray, and Black were terrific. The story wasn't as good as the acting.

Metacritic has Get Low with a very solid 77/100 while Winter's Bone is 90/100, Ebert gave Get Low 3 stars and Winter's Bone 4 stars, and at Rotten Tomatoes, Winter's Bone has a 95 to Get Low's 84 among all critics (with audiences and "top" critics they are almost dead even).

Groucho

Me neither. He delivered every line the exact same way. And you shouldn't have to listen to a commentary track to appreciate an acting performance.

The performance that should have been nominated in The Social Network is Andrew Garfield.

Supermallet

Oh, well, if everyone says something must be true, it must be true! I watched all of Get Low and thought it was a beautiful, moving, and empathetic film. Winter's Bone felt cold and shallow to me.

Come on now, Groucho. I said greater appreciation. I already really liked his performance, but hearing about his method helped me appreciate the subtleties even more.

I do think Andrew Garfield should have been nominated as well.

hardercore

There's also that part of acting where the actors don't say any lines. Generally, in conversation scenes, they are about half the overall time.

dino88

There sure are a lot of negative comments towards Franco and Hathaway. Does it really matter who hosts the show? You see them for the first 5-10 minutes during the intro and then they're barely seen for the rest of the show.

jfoobar

The Academy lays the smack-down on Deadline Hollywood:

http://slatest.slate.com/id/2286663/

It also didn't help that Finke referred to this year's Oscars as "another snorefest" on her site. Too bad for Fleming though. He was been covering the Oscars for 20+ years, most of that time for Variety.

The name I turned into "****" is (in case you managed to avoid it so far):



The whole list of spoilers is up at http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/. I didn't read them.

Supermallet

How is everyone watching this? I don't have cable so I'll be streaming it through the Oscar website.