It seemed a miracle that this much bad-buzzed big movie that's a modern adaptation of the old radio series about the legendary action duo -- Britt Reid (with the unorthodox casting of Seth Rogen) and his resourceful Kato (with Taiwanese pop singer Jay Chou) not to mention their coolly equipped The Black Beauty -- was tracking very well for weeks now. But then rival studios emailed me that The Green Hornet was surprisingly underperforming. Sony execs disagreed. They said things could have been worse at the box office Friday but the West Coast was "pushing it way up" with late shows. "Everybody agrees we will be up Saturday and should benefit all weekend long from a young audience," a Sony exec reassures. Whether The Green Hornet can get over $40M depends on this weekend's bump so let's not judge this movie's numbers prematurely. Friday's post midnight screenings were light -- $550K on 700 plays -- but that's because Sony didn't push them. Meanwhile, The Green Hornet earned a "B+" CinemaScore overall but an "A-" among audience members under age 25.

Given the higher 3D ticket prices and the superhero genre, these grosses are still on the lower side of Hollywood's expectations. ("Once again, tracking overestimated this genre," a rival studio exec messages me in a veiled reference to the lackluster performance of Kick-Ass. But that pic was R-rated and The Green Hornet is PG-13.) Then again, we have to take into account the $120M-$150M production cost: blame reshoots and the release delay from December 22nd to January 14th so Sony could give the flick a 3D makeover. Throughout the week, rival studios were telling me they thought Sony missed a Xmas opportunity to clean up at the box office. But we don't all have 20/20 hindsight.

As for the marketing plan, "we really worked hard to create a summer film launch in January," a Sony exec told me. Personally, I hated those cheezy Carls Jr promos but they helped create awareness. Pic had a strong presence with ads during key NFL and College Bowl games, plus the NBA. And a high impact outdoor campaign with a glow-in-the-dark logo effect plus "real” headlights on the image of The Black Beauty which toured in 20 markets and starred on Myth Busters and in U.S. auto shows. Rogen (who lost a lot of weight to play the role) and Chou each did an enormous amount of PR/appearances to support the film.

This is a shockingly soft opening for a Ron Howard-directed movie starring proven box office strongmen Vince Vaughn and Kevin James whose last four comedies were mega-openers (Four Christmases - $31M, Couples Retreat - $34M, Paul Blart: Mall Cop - $31M, and Grown-Ups - $40M). "Somehow putting them together gets you half that," one rival studio exec snarked to me Friday night. I readily admit to being relieved to see Vince cool off at the box office because he's such a pain-in-the-ass to almost everybody in the filmmaking process. On the other hand, The Dilemma was Universal Pictures chief Adam Fogelson's first release of his new greenlit movie slate. But, seriously, what Big Studio mogul would not have okayed that talent combination in a PG-13 comedy? (Although I think Ron Howard should have deleted that gratuitous gay slur scene which was cut out of the trailer after protests that it was offensive.) The pic's CinemaScore was a "B". Given that this film's production budget was $70 million, Dilemma has a long way to go but Universal believes it's "performing at or slightly above tracking" which was forecasting only high teens because of poor tracking in recent weeks. That's soft for the pic's respective cost and a disaster for the reputations of Howard, Vaughn, and James. The disconnect, insiders tell me, was the storyline. "The subject of infidelity is a really challenging one," one exec explained to me even though the studio's own pre-release publicity points out that Vince has consistently proven to be a popular draw in comedies that take a look at the issues of relationships. "At a tie when people are looking for wish fulfillment, this may be too painful." Other insiders are complaining to me that "this pic was meant to be a comedy with some drama, and it turned out to be a drama with some comedy". Universal is also distributing the film internationally and it opens day and date in Australia, New Zealand, and Romania. In April, Universal begins rolling it out to the rest of the world.