The Bus

Early estimates from Deadline:

1. Toy Story 3 (Pixar/Disney) OPENING [4,028 Theaters]
   Friday $40M, Est Weekend $120M
   
2. Karate Kid (Sony) Week 2 [3,663 Theaters]
   Friday $8.4M -55%, Est Weekend $30M, Est cume $106.5M
   
3. The A-Team (Fox) Week 2 [3,544 Theaters]
   Friday $3.9M -59%, Est Weekend $13M, Est cume $49M
   
4. Shrek Forever After 3D (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) Week 5 [3,207 Theaters]
   Friday $2.5M, Estimated Weekend $8.5M, Estimated cume $226M
   
5. Jonah Hex (Warner Bros) OPENING [2,825 Theaters]
   Friday $2M, Estimated Weekend Get Him To The Greek (Universal) Week 3 [2,592 Theaters]
   Friday $1.8M, Estimated Weekend $6M, Estimated Cume $47.7M
   
6. Killers (Lionsgate) Week 3 [2,619 Theaters]
   Friday $1.7M, Estimated weekend $5.5M, Estimated Cume $39.7M
   
7. Prince of Persia (Disney) Week 4 [2,605 Theaters]
   Friday $1.1M, Estimated Weekend $4.0M, Estimated Cume $79.2M
   
8. Sex And The City 2 (New Line/Warner Bros) Week 4 [1,680 Theaters]
   Friday $900K, Estimated Weekend $2.7M, Estimated Cume $90.5M
   
9. Marmaduke (Fox) Week 4 [2,495 Theaters]
   Friday $725K, Estimated Weekend $2.5M, Estimated Cume $27.7M
   

Toy Story 3: Pixar/Disney's Toy Story 3 is the 3D monster everybody thought it would $40 million Friday on 4,028 locations, including 2,463 3D screens (of which 180 are IMAX). The 3D ticket price advantage swamped previous Pixar opening weekends, including 2003 Finding Nemo's $70.2M and 2004 The Incredibles' $70.4M. Estimates right now is for Toy Story 3 to debut to $120M this weekend with that fat +46% admission price which adds about $18M to every $100M of box office gross. Also going for it are brilliant reviews. Plus, Fathers Day is a huge moviegoing opportunity for families -- "if you have the right movie," a studio exec reminds me. Which this is, of course.

Jonah Hex: By contrast, newcomer Warner Bros' Jonah Hex already is such a flop that it's not even meeting the studio's low opening weekend expectation of $10M from 2,825 venues after it wasn't tracking. My sources say it opened to only $2M Friday and will be hard-pressed to get to even $6M this weekend. It also should drop to 6th place Sunday. As one Warner Bros exec said about the lesson learned; "You don't take a handsome actor and disgfigure him." The studio is so embarrassed that it took great pains to points out that the pic was greenlighted before Diane Nelson took over as DC Entertainment prez. About the cowboy with the disfigured face and legend that he can't be killed, a minor character in the DC Comics galaxy of stars, Jonah Hex was attempted on the cheap. The studio claims the final budget was $35M. UPDATE: But I hear Warner Bros cut the original budget of $80M to $40M right before production with no script changes. Then the studio did 70 pages of reshoots about 6 months ago. That may have added another $25M for a new budget of $65M. Ouch! As one insider tells me, "the studio looked at the movie a long time ago and wrote it off".

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

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Surprising numbers for TS3, considering the 10PM showing I went to was only about 40% full.

Deftones

Wow. A-Team may not even get to $100 million. That's nuts.

Hokeyboy

Family movie. Kids are, or SHOULD, be in bed at that time. It's going to KILL this weekend. KILL, I say!

islandclaws

Take out TS3 and that's a pathetic list of top 10 summer films.

I love seeing anything Fox is in bomb, though. Jonah Hex didn't even look awesomely bad, just bad.

Hokeyboy

You know, Pixar films do about 4X their opening. TS3 is gonna be front-loaded, but from everything I hear (seeing the film at 2:30 today) it's not only a huge crowd-pleaser, it'll do boffo return business. This thing could over-take Shrek 2 as the highest unadjusted domestic animation grosser. God, I hope so...

RoboDad

I'll do my part to help it. I saw it at midnight yesterday, and plan to see it at least two more times in the theater.

Supermallet

Given the paltry offerings for the rest of the summer, and the great WOM on TS3, its legs could be massive. What's Shrek 2's final gross again?

The Bus

I added 6/21 for fun. And also because I can't add.

Hokeyboy

According to Wikipedia, Shrek 2 "grossed $441,226,247 domestically (US and Canada), and $478,612,511 in foreign markets, making a total of $919.8 million worldwide."

Ewww.

Daytripper

ME too! I might even buy tickets and not go That's how much I hate those "Shrek" films.

RoboDad

Between now and the July 4th weekend, there is nothing opening that directly competes with TS3, so it should have huge numbers for the holiday.

In fact, the only serious competition it faces for the next few weeks in any category is Eclipse, but the demographic for that one is so different that I would be surprised if it really affects TS3's numbers at all.

Supermallet

Sadly, the release of Eclipse does remove IMAX from Toy Story 3's locations.

My Other Self

Wait, so TS3 won't be in IMAX next weekend?

RoboDad

That is true, but I don't know if IMAX will be as large of a draw for TS3 at that point. Most people who want to see it on IMAX will have already done so, and there aren't too many IMAX patrons who are willing to pay the premium for a repeat viewing.

Drexl

Is it, really? The show doesn't seem to be one of those things people get all nostalgic about. From what I remember, it was mostly a vehicle for Mr. T. I'm really not surprised the movie didn't do well.

So, no more Transformers, and another big letdown at the box office. Are we close to saying goodbye to Megan Fox?

Seantn

If you steered clear of shitty movies, you never would have had to have said, "Hello" to her.

Supermallet

I'm counting down the days till she does Playboy or porn.

GoldenJCJ

Jennifer's Body was a dud, Jonah Hex looks to be a dud, and Transformers 3 will do serious business even without her. Whether she disappears or not I don't know, but that right there should be enough to put her ego in check.

islandclaws

She'll be churning out DTV shitty hororr flicks within 5 years.

sleepyhead55

You don't think Day and Knight will give it some competion? Granted, the demographics are far different, but I think Cruise should pose a challenge next week.

Deftones

I think it is because it's a summer action flick. Usually those can hit $100 million with no sweat. This summer seems to be an aberration, though, because neither this or PoP will make it to that mark.

Bluelitespecial

The only movie I have seen this summer has been Mcgruber. I will check out A-team this week, after that Toy Story 3, Inception, and The Expendables. What a shitty summer its been this year at the movies.

The Bus

This has been one of the weaker summers in recent memory. I'd say the whole year has been underwhelming. I wonder if it's the effect of studios taking less risks with films (considering the downturn in 2007-2009 and movies greenlit then making it out now).

It's probably a poor generalization.

Mr. Cinema

Not sure of the actual reason. 2011 looks alot more promising. As does 2012.

RoboDad

I think Day and Knight will make money, no question about that. But I'm not convinced that the money spent on D&K tickets represents money lost to TS3.