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Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

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Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Old 01-22-10, 01:17 PM
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Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Opening:

Legion 2476 theaters
Extraordinary Measures 2549 theaters
The Tooth Fairy 3344 theaters

Weekend Predictions:

Box Office.com:

Title Gross (M) Cume (M) Locations Inc./Dec.
1 Avatar $36.0 $553.0 3,141 -144
2 The Book of Eli $17.2 $62.5 3,111 0
3 The Tooth Fairy $16.5 $16.5 3,344 New
4 Legion $15.7 $15.7 2,476 New
5 Extraordinary Measures $9.5 $9.5 2,549 New
6 The Lovely Bones $9.4 $32.4 2,571 +8
7 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel $7.9 $205.9 2,973 -323
8 Sherlock Holmes $6.0 $190.3 2,670 -503
9 The Spy Next Door $5.9 $20.1 2,924 0
10 It's Complicated $5.8 $98.2 2,294 -376


Boxofficeguru.com:

Avatar: 32m
Tooth Fairy: 18 million
Legion: 12 million
Extraordinary Measures 9million


Boxofficefollower.net (Xiayun)

1. Avatar 35.1
2. The Book of Eli 16.4
3. The Tooth Fairy 13.7
4. Legion 13.6
5. Extraordinary Measures 8.2
6. The Lovely Bones 7.3
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 7.1
8. Sherlock Holmes 5.9
9. The Spy Next Door 5.8
10. It's Complicated 5.5


Avatar right now after thursday's gross sits at 516,797,418. TDK is at 533,345,358 Avatar should pass TDK domestic on Saturday

Now the more interesting number is Titanic's World Wide Number, which sits at 1,842,900,000. Avatar sits in 2nd right now at 1,689,600,000. If it has a strong DOM and OS weekend, it could sink the boat by sunday in domestic, and then there is only one more number to go, Titanic's 600 million. And with another expected 30-38 million this weekend, Avatar will only need about 45-50 million to beat Titanic.

Amazing. I think at this point Titanic is a given, The better question is now can Avatar hit 700 million DOM, and 2.3 billion WW?
Old 01-22-10, 01:23 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

God almighty. Say what you will about the quality of his movies, but Cameron sure knows how to put 'em in the seats.
Old 01-22-10, 01:33 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

I can't believe how low the estimates are for both Legion and The Tooth Fairy. I figure maybe both would do $20+ million for the weekend. Now, it's kinda sad to see the projections for "Extraordinary Measures".
Old 01-22-10, 01:46 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

I never would have guessed that Cameron would be taking down his own record. If he didn't have a big ego before, well...

I'm surprised Legion estimates are so high. It looks terrible. I'd have guessed $9-10m.
Old 01-22-10, 02:15 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

i feel like i'm the only person that has yet to see avatar.
Old 01-22-10, 02:34 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

This is kind of like Roger Maris passing Babe Ruth... Avatar has the benefit of the 3D/IMAX surcharge whereas Titanic did not. It's going to need to blow by Titanic and hit 700m before the whole 3D/IMAX factor is disregarded.
Old 01-22-10, 02:43 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by jpb07
This is kind of like Roger Maris passing Babe Ruth... Avatar has the benefit of the 3D/IMAX surcharge whereas Titanic did not. It's going to need to blow by Titanic and hit 700m before the whole 3D/IMAX factor is disregarded.
Not really, Titanic enjoyed advantages as well
Old 01-22-10, 02:53 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by jpb07
This is kind of like Roger Maris passing Babe Ruth... Avatar has the benefit of the 3D/IMAX surcharge whereas Titanic did not. It's going to need to blow by Titanic and hit 700m before the whole 3D/IMAX factor is disregarded.
Originally Posted by superdeluxe
Not really, Titanic enjoyed advantages as well
True that. Titanic didn't have to contend with all the media saturation we have around us today. Even if it wasn't the Golden Age of Hollywood, there were far less distractions for theatergoers than there are now.
Old 01-22-10, 03:43 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by jpb07
This is kind of like Roger Maris passing Babe Ruth... Avatar has the benefit of the 3D/IMAX surcharge whereas Titanic did not. It's going to need to blow by Titanic and hit 700m before the whole 3D/IMAX factor is disregarded.
That's not a benefit. Avatar's more expensive IMAX 3D showings have to convince people to spend even more of their money than a regular movie. If anything, the amount of money Avatar has taken in is even more impressive than Titanic.
Old 01-22-10, 04:12 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

so anyone know approx. how much Cameron stands to make for himself from Avatar?
Old 01-22-10, 05:08 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Don't underestimate the power of Harrison Ford. People in their 60's 50's and 70's love him. This kind of movie is suited for him and his audience.
Old 01-22-10, 05:17 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by JediMindTricks
i feel like i'm the only person that has yet to see avatar.
I might check it out on Blu-ray. Honestly, it looks really stupid.
Old 01-22-10, 06:57 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by JediMindTricks
i feel like i'm the only person that has yet to see avatar.
Old 01-22-10, 07:05 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

I knew Avatar would do well. I never thought it would do this well. I never thought Titanic's record would be broken. I'm pretty impressed.
Old 01-22-10, 07:09 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Same here...I figured Titanic's 600M domestic would fall someday but 1.8B worldwide...wow. Its only been out for 5 weeks too.
Old 01-22-10, 07:45 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

I thought Avatar would come up WAY short of Titanic. I thought it would make around $400 million world-wide. This... this box-office intake is friggin' ridiculous. Who knew this would happen?
Old 01-22-10, 07:47 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
I might check it out on Blu-ray. Honestly, it looks really stupid.
There's a New Moon joke in here somewhere.
Old 01-22-10, 09:52 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
I might check it out on Blu-ray. Honestly, it looks really stupid.
Do you often check out movies that look "really stupid" on Blu-ray? Seriously, if you're bored, move along. No one here wants to tell you what to watch, we're just applauding the success of an "unlikely" record-breaking movie. No matter what you do or don't think "looks stupid," you have to admit it's an impressive take.
Old 01-22-10, 10:07 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by Fist of Doom
That's not a benefit. Avatar's more expensive IMAX 3D showings have to convince people to spend even more of their money than a regular movie. If anything, the amount of money Avatar has taken in is even more impressive than Titanic.
Not sure I understand this logic (and I'm not trying to stir things up).

Couldn't people who don't want to spend more money on a 3D showing just see it in a normal theater if they don't want to pay the extra price? What 'convincing' is there? You make it sound like having the ability to see it in 3D dissuades people from seeing it at all - I'm not sure I follow that logic.

How is more 3D availability a disadvantage that makes revenue #'s more impressive? It would seem like an opportunity to just make an additional premium on people who want to supersize their fries (so to speak). Are you implying if the option wasn't available people would fore go fries altogether and not just default to the cheaper option? (Admittedly this is a somewhat poor analogy/metaphor)

Could you explain this logic a bit further?
Old 01-22-10, 10:30 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by TylerDurden_73
Don't underestimate the power of Harrison Ford. People in their 60's 50's and 70's love him. This kind of movie is suited for him and his audience.
yet I don't remember seeing all his fans run out and see 'Crossing Over'
Old 01-22-10, 10:32 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
I might check it out on Blu-ray. Honestly, it looks really stupid.
my jaw dropped when it won best director and film at the Golden Globes - oh come on, it wasn't THAT great - ugh!
Old 01-22-10, 11:28 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by wirefan
Not sure I understand this logic (and I'm not trying to stir things up).

Couldn't people who don't want to spend more money on a 3D showing just see it in a normal theater if they don't want to pay the extra price? What 'convincing' is there? You make it sound like having the ability to see it in 3D dissuades people from seeing it at all - I'm not sure I follow that logic.

How is more 3D availability a disadvantage that makes revenue #'s more impressive? It would seem like an opportunity to just make an additional premium on people who want to supersize their fries (so to speak). Are you implying if the option wasn't available people would fore go fries altogether and not just default to the cheaper option? (Admittedly this is a somewhat poor analogy/metaphor)

Could you explain this logic a bit further?
Roughly 75%-80% of Avatar's box office take is from the 3D viewings, and it's losing more and more 2D screens as the weeks go by and new films open each weekend, so the option to see it in 2D is dwindling, but even with the "lesser" 2D screenings, people are choosing to spend more for the 3D viewing experience because that's the way it was meant to be experienced (James Cameron created a 3D shooting camera just for this film).

So, you have a film that cost more to see in its intended theatrical exhibition, i.e. 3D, but people are not shying away from the higher cost because the good word of mouth has convinced people to plunk down their hard-earned money in a so-so economy to get the full immersive viewing experience with the RealD 3D and IMAX 3D screenings. It's a tougher sell than what Titanic had to deal with (mainly a very long running time over roughly 3.5 hours), but the average ticket price in 1998 was much less than it is today with the more expensive average 3D ticket price.

What James Cameron has done is create a film that required a higher admission price because of the perceived value of the theatrical exhibition of the film in its 3D format. No one else has come close to creating such a 3D experience to benefit from the higher admission price. There is skill in creating a film that produces good word of mouth from those who have seen it, with a higher price point that is still not seen as a deterrent for those who have a desire/demand to see the film in 3D, while the supply of the 3D screenings remains consistent to today's number of 3D-capable theaters, and not hindering its profit maximization (had the number of 3D theaters be far less than what exists today). In economic terms, Avatar 3D is a high quality product that can demand a higher price from those interesting in the 3D viewing experience.

Could you also see it in 2D, sure, but those opportunities aren't as high as you'd think they are since Avatar has taken hold of most of the 3D theaters/screens across the country, and the strategy is to maximize profits by keeping Avatar on the non-2D screens, and Avatar is good enough to continue to elicit business at the 3D screening options, even after dominating for 5 weeks in a row at the box office.
Old 01-22-10, 11:42 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by wirefan
Could you explain this logic a bit further?
^What Patman said
Old 01-22-10, 11:43 PM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Originally Posted by wirefan
Not sure I understand this logic (and I'm not trying to stir things up).

Couldn't people who don't want to spend more money on a 3D showing just see it in a normal theater if they don't want to pay the extra price? What 'convincing' is there? You make it sound like having the ability to see it in 3D dissuades people from seeing it at all - I'm not sure I follow that logic.

How is more 3D availability a disadvantage that makes revenue #'s more impressive? It would seem like an opportunity to just make an additional premium on people who want to supersize their fries (so to speak). Are you implying if the option wasn't available people would fore go fries altogether and not just default to the cheaper option? (Admittedly this is a somewhat poor analogy/metaphor)

Could you explain this logic a bit further?
You make it sound so easy.
When I saw the movie a few weeks back, the two theaters here that I know were playing it were only showing it in 3-D, there was no option to see it any other way. Not that I would want to anyways.
Old 01-23-10, 12:03 AM
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Re: Box Office: Jan 22-24th Titanic and Dark Knight both go down?.

Personally ... I've never bought into box office numbers. Show me ticket sales ... not dollars. Actual ticket sales.

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