Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

Early Friday numbers are out from Nikki Finke:

Avatar - $13.3m - est. $45m
Daybreakers - $5.8m - est. $15m
Sherlock Holmes - $5.1m - est. $17m
The Squeakquel - $3.4m - est. $15m
Leap Year - $3.3m - est. $9m

So, after this weekend, Avatar will have around $425m, topping TF2's $402m. Nice!

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

The rest of the weekend Top 10 according to boxoffice.com. So glad to see Michael Cera's film tank. Tired of that kid.

1 Avatar $46,000,000 -33% 3,422 -39 $13,442 $426,540,297 4 Fox
2 Sherlock Holmes $16,500,000 -55% 3,626 0 $4,550 $165,067,766 3 Warner Bros.
3 Daybreakers $15,200,000 -- 2,523 -- $6,026 $15,200,000 1 Lionsgate
4 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel $14,800,000 -58% 3,747 +47 $3,950 $176,684,676 2 Fox
5 It's Complicated $10,200,000 -46% 2,954 +57 $3,453 $75,562,665 3 Universal
6 Leap Year $9,200,000 -13% 2,511 -- $3,664 $9,200,000 1 Universal
7 The Blind Side $7,200,000 -40% 2,880 -46 $2,550 $218,646,909 8 Warner Bros.
8 Youth in Revolt $7,100,000 -- 1,873 -- $3,791 $7,100,000 1 The Weinstein Company
9 Up In the Air $6,800,000 -37% 2,218 -323 $3,066 $54,441,741 6 Paramount
10 The Princess and the Frog $3,800,000 -61% 2,620 -708 $1,450 $91,695,571 7 Disney

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

Damn. Avatar made almost as much $$ as the next top 3 movies did this weekend COMBINED!

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

I wonder if Avatar can pass $500 mill domestically? Glad Revenge of the Fallen has fallen. ;)

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

It will in a few wks... here's my scientific breakdown:

425 after this wknd. It made about 73mill counting M-Sun this wk, so say the remaining wks we get 45, 30, 20, 12, 8...call the rest 10. Total 550 (probably top out around 560) If it gets some amazing holds it could approach 600, but it's unlikely imo.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

1) Killing his career is going to be impossible, because he has a lot of young fans.

2) Nikke Finke says the movie's turnout, even at that rank, is considered "pretty good" by the studio. Before you say "tank" you have to consider what the expectation is. If nobody relevant views it as a failure, they'll keep casting him. Although, you know, they will anyway.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

Plus, he has that Arrested Development movie coming someday. No matter how many bad movies he's in, AD will make up for them.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

Hope that they can get to it before Cera is 30.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

True. All five people who watched the show will make that movie beyond profitable. :up: ;)

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

How many more weeks can Avatar stay #1?

Based upon 33% drop and competition

Week 5: Avatar 30.3 vs. Book of Eli - YES
Week 6: Avatar 20.0 vs. Legion - YES, Tooth Fairy - YES, Extraordianary Measures - MAYBE
Week 7: Avatar 13.2 vs. When in Rome - NO, Edge of Darkness - YES

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

I'm not quite sure what the Yes and Nos are supposed to mean? I think Book of Eli and Edge of Darkness both have a good shot at bumping Avatar, but we'll see.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

"at least" 22 mil Saturday apparently, weekend now est. at 50 mil

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

That is crazy! If Avatar can pull in $15 million on Sunday, it'll hit that $50 million level on its 4th weekend.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

If it did $21 million, I would assume we will see anywhere from a $14-15 million Sunday.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

We went to see Avatar (again) yesterday in 3D. 3:30, a more than 3/4 theater. When we were leaving, the 7 p.m. line was out the door, and we saw at least one set of friends on their second viewing.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

according to boxofficemojo the budget was only $18 million so i'd hardly say it "tanked"...i'm sure it will make its money back.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

Does this mean there's a chance Cameron might be able to lay claim to the two highest grossing movies of all time if Avatar can keep doing solid? I don't see it overtaking Titanic, but Dark Knight is a possibility.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

My gut feeling is that Avatar needs to catch TDK ($533 million) by the time Alice in Wonderland is released on March 5th since that's when it'll gobble up a lot of the 3D screens, as Avatar is already shedding a lot of 2D screens to make room for the new releases in January and February, so it'll be close for it to make it to $534 million.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

Well, in terms of worldwide sales, he already has.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

YES - Avatar's weekend will be larger and stays at #1
NO - Avatar falls to #2, #3 etc.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

And he'll either get close to TDK's $533 box office take, or blow by it and end up around $565+ million after 4 months in the theaters.

Don't forget it'll get a small bump after the Oscar nominations are announced, and it's got MLK Jr. day next Monday for another small payday.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

I think I'd change this to a MAYBE. The Rock's last two kid-aimed movies (three if you count his supporting role in Get Smart) opened with over $20 million. And kids might be sick of the Chipmunks by this point.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

no!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

From BOG:

Avatar intl surges to $906M + $429M dom = $1.34B & rising fast. Now very likely to top Titanic as #1 global hit ever.

Re: Weekend Box Office 1/8-1/10: Avatar now #1 of '09
 

Avatar only had a -29% drop this weekend. Wow. I wouldn't be surprised if the film ends up with less of a drop once actuals are out (since everyone has underestimated this film every week so far).

If the film were to lose all it's 2D screens over the next few weeks, that would mean almost absolutely nothing. Everyone I know, except one person, has seen it in 3D (some numerous times).

If it only drops 30% again next weekend, we're looking at weekend five with $33-34 million and a domestic total gross of $480-485 million (depending on how well it does during the week).

I'm going on a limb and we will see it cross the $500 million mark in weekend six with a $21-22 million weekend. ;)