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Movies released in the next week: What will hit? What will bomb?

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Movies released in the next week: What will hit? What will bomb?

Old 12-19-08, 11:06 AM
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Movies released in the next week: What will hit? What will bomb?

So there are a A LOT of movie releasing today and quite a few more coming out on Thursday.
Today (Fri. Dec. 19th):
Seven Pounds
The Tale of Desperaux
Yes Man

Thurs. Dec. 25th
Benjamin Button
The Spirit
Marley and Me
Valkyrie
Bedtime Stories


What do you guys think will be big and what do you think will bomb? Some of these are very pricey films but I doubt all of these will he hits and I think at least 3 will bomb very badly.

My predictions: (all predictions are final Us grosses)
Seven Pounds ($95 million...I know its almost stupid to underestimate Smith but I dont think this will be one of his biggest hits.)
The Tale of Desperaux (17 million...I think this will be a HUGE bomb.)
Yes Man (86 MIllion...Dont think this will get to $100 million.)

Benjamin Button (This is hard. Depends on Awards I guess but I'll say $148 million.)
The Spirit (28 million..If only cause its been heavily advertised.)
Marley and Me (102 Million..I think people will buy this stupid shit up.)
Valkyrie (22 million. Looks good but I think its the wrong time for this.)
Bedtime Stories (158 Million.)
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Old 12-19-08, 12:23 PM
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wow, i don't think Benjamin Button will come even close to that. i checked wikipedia, and the runtime is 165 min.
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Old 12-19-08, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Rypro 525 View Post
wow, i don't think Benjamin Button will come even close to that. i checked wikipedia, and the runtime is 165 min.
Holy crap! That can't be right....right?
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Old 12-19-08, 12:41 PM
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I really hope "Seven Pounds" bombs. I'm just so sick of Will Smith and the reviews are terrible.

And "Marley & Me" will do big business. Only because of the book. I won't see it because it stars THEM.
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Old 12-19-08, 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Rypro 525 View Post
wow, i don't think Benjamin Button will come even close to that. i checked wikipedia, and the runtime is 165 min.
Agreed, no way Benjamin Button will make that much.
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Old 12-19-08, 02:33 PM
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The Spirit is going to bomb.

Valkyrie won't bomb, but it won't make back it's estimated $95 million budget.

Marley & Me will BE a bomb, but it WON'T bomb. The movie is reportedly horrible. But it's still probably going to make $100 million or more.

I'm hoping Yes Man and Bedtime Stories bomb, but I'm guessing they'll both do respectable business.

Benjamin Button will be a big hit, but not necessarily right out of the gate...one of those gradual earners - expect more box office AFTER awards season ends. It still probably has enough "buzz" to finish second Christmas weekend (probably right behind Marley & Me).
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Old 12-19-08, 02:36 PM
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I see The Spirit and Valkyrie bombing hard.

Marley and Me looks cute but I don't see it pulling in a whole lot of money.

From what I've heard (I'm out of the loop on this topic) is that A Tale of Despereaux is based on one of the most beloved children's books of its time. I'm not sure if kids are begging their parents to take them but this could be a surprise hit.

I see Benjamin Button and Seven Pounds doing well, although, IMO, Seven Pounds hasn't been marketed very well.
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Old 12-19-08, 02:42 PM
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Button will probably under-perform. I just don't see Joe Six-Pack getting excited for it, especially when they can go to the theater next door and watch Tom Cruise kill Hitler.
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Old 12-19-08, 02:51 PM
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Spoilers Groucho! I haven't seen Valkyrie yet!
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Old 12-19-08, 02:58 PM
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I don't think Benjamin Button will break $100 million. Maybe $50 million.
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Old 12-23-08, 07:11 PM
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here is what the Weekend Warrior predicts from comingsoon.net:

(All the following are for the four-day weekend from Dec. 25 to 28)

1. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $46.8 million N/A

2. Marley & Me (20th Century Fox) - $27.4 million N/A

3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $21.3 million N/A

4. Valkyrie (MGM/United Artists) - $17.6 million N/A

5. Yes Man (Warner Bros.) - $15.5 million -15%

6. The Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $14.4 million +42%

7. The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $14.3 million N/A

8. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $13.5 million -16%

9. Four Christmases (New Line/WB) – $7.2 million -7%

10. Bolt (Disney) - $5.9 million +40%

11. Doubt (Miramax) - $5.5 million

I'd say it looks about right. Well not right considering the top 2 movies but I imagine it'll go down similar to these numbers except I dont thing Desperaux, The Spirit, Or Seven Pi=ounds will do around 3 to 4 million less each than what they predict.
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Old 12-24-08, 03:02 AM
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That looks right to me. I'm going to see The Spirit, but I don't see it doing well. I want to see Benjamin Button and Valkyrie, too.
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Old 12-26-08, 09:47 AM
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http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.co...-valkyrie-22m/

So it looks like Marley and Me will have at least a $45 million weekend
Benjamin Button and Bedtime Stories will have at least a $35-$40 million 4-day weekend and Valkyrie will do much better than expected with close to $30 million
Spirit will most likey do less than $15million for the 4-days.
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Old 12-26-08, 10:04 AM
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Is it just me, or are none of these movies unappealing? I was hoping there'd be at least ONE movie I wanted to see around the holidays this year, but eh well...
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Old 12-26-08, 11:56 AM
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Damn, that's alot of movies coming out at the same time.
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Old 12-26-08, 08:16 PM
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im surprised about buttons. For some reason, i didn't see it doing that well since it does look a bit arty for a lot of people.
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Old 12-26-08, 09:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Anubis2005X View Post
Is it just me, or are none of these movies unappealing? I was hoping there'd be at least ONE movie I wanted to see around the holidays this year, but eh well...
I think you stated this incorrectly.
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Old 12-26-08, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Rypro 525 View Post
im surprised about buttons. For some reason, i didn't see it doing that well since it does look a bit arty for a lot of people.
I think that they spent so much on advertising for this film, that there was no way that it wouldn't do well at least during the first week. I swear that every time I turn around, I see a web ad or poster for this movie.
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Old 12-26-08, 09:57 PM
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I think the premise of Buttons alone is intriguing. I always thought it would do well.
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