The difference is that Milk is actually good and while the actors make it even better, they aren't the only worthwhile thing in the movie.

Milk doesn't have musch of a shot at winning Best Picture, but it does have a shot at winning Penn another Best Actor Oscar. In fact, Penn might be the odds-on favorite right now.

The winner will be either Penn or Rourke.

ditto...with Eastwood behind that option. Cuz we all know he's going to act great in his new film and the supposed final acting role will elevate it moreso, which is understandable.

I thought for some reason Penn had won twice. Once for Dead Man Walking and again for Mystic River. Then I see he was only nominated for DMW. I thought if he had won 2 already the Academy would not have awarded him again but now I think it is extremely possible he will win this year. Will Milk win Best pic though? I dont know. it'll be close.

Looks like the Academy has reconsidered. From the LA Times:


Alert: The Academy reverses itself on "Dark Knight" score
04:38 PM PT, Dec 8 2008
My sources say the Motion Picture Academy has reversed its decision to disqualify the score for "The Dark Knight." Hans Zimmer and James Newton Howard, who collaborated on the music, will now be able to compete in the best original score category. The Academy had ruled the score ineligible last month, saying there were too many composers--five, in all--listed on the music cue sheet. I can't get the Academy's executive director Bruce Davis on the phone, but I've seen an Academy release saying its music branch executive committee voted to change the decision last Friday. When Davis and I spoke earlier last week, he was still defending the decision, saying that the Academy's music branch "sees this as an award, like cinematography or directing, where you want to award a single creator. This isn't like visual effects. Except for extraordinary circumstances, it's an award that should go to one person."

If the Academy has caved in, this should be a sweet victory for Zimmer and Howard, who were also disqualified in 2005 for their previous collaboration on "Batman Begins." They are both seven-time nominees, Zimmer having won best original score for "The Lion King."

More and more I'm thinking that Slumdog Millionaire is going to be a lock for a best picture nom because it's looking like NY critics are going to vote it as their best picture of the year. If they don't go with that I'm thinking that they are going to go with Revolutionary Road. Milk is pretty much a lock for LA critics because of the prop 8 battle unless they go with Slumdog, Road, or maybe Che. So what does all this mean, who knows. I think the race is still pretty much open. We know pretty much that Slumdog if it takes another critics award is a lock. Milk seems to be a lock just because of the prop 8 battle, plus Penn is the front runner with Rourke right behind him, unless Langella gains some steam which he could come out the victor of the best actor race. Eastwood is going to get an acting nom for Gran Torino, but I don't think that it will get a best picture nom. Dark Knight will get a best picture nom. I still can't belive that anyone is questioning this at all. It's the big hollywood film that also works as a great movie. Almost ever year we get one of those and it makes the academy look good if them nom something like this *Look at Raiders, Star Wars, The Fugitive, etc* So with those three that seem to be locks whats left. Revolutionary Road seems to be the forth film that will be up. I'm hearing better things about it than Doubt, which I think will get some acting noms and thats it. So last I think will be Frost/Nixon. I don't think Button has the chance to get a best picture nom. I think if anything it will pick up a nom for best director, but I'm hearing the same mixed feelings about it as I am with Doubt. Plus Button not ending up on Ebert's top ten, and I've heard that he as seen the film, makes me wonder if it can live up to the hype. So my list for best picture noms I think are going to be-
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Why do people keep insisting that Slumdog Millionaire is not a lock? It's been almost universally praised, and most of the people who've praised it list it as the best film of the year, or at least in the top 5. And I'd say Rourke is the front-runner over everyone else in the acting category. The only person who might take him is Eastwood who could sweep in for the "sorry you're old" Oscar. Penn is good, great even, but I've heard WAY more buzz for Rourke than I have for him.

I think that kind of talk is only coming from people like me who have not had a chance to see the film yet.

I want to see Slumdog for sure, I'm going to see Milk on Friday...

I still think TDK will get nominated, it's easily the most visible film that MOST film goers have seen, critically strong to boot, and the ratings that kind of nomination would get for the Academy. They need those ratings to go up...

Nice to see Dark Knight's score now eligible - I think it's a strong contender to win that award.

As for those who say Dark Knight doesn't have a shot at winning Best Picture, all I can say is...stay tuned. :)

I say the same thing for people who think it will be even nominated.

It wouldn't be that big of a surprise really, especially considering the best picture winners from this decade:

2000 - American Beauty
2001 - Gladiator
2002 - A Beautiful Mind
2003 - Chicago
2004 - Lord of the Rings - The Return of the King
2005 - Million Dollar Baby
2006 - Crash
2007 - The Departed
2008 - No Country for Old Men

Of those, only Crash and A Beautiful Mind fit what usually gets noted as an oscar flick. Gladiator and Chicago were basically popcorn flicks, Lord of the Rings was the first fantasy flick to win the main prize, The Departed and No Country were downbeat, violent tragedies. American Beauty was an enjoyable black comedy.

I dunno, The Dark Knight really wouldn't be out of place.

I've been tracking the precursor awards again this year. Enough have been awarded to see how the race is taking shape -- will update as and when bigger groups make their announcements. L.A. and New York Critics are coming up, as are Globe noms.

Picture
1. Slumdog Millionaire (BIFA, NBR, WAFCA, BFCA*)
2. Frozen River (ISA*, GIFA)
3. The Wrestler (ISA*, NBR*, BFCA*)
4. Changeling (NBR*, BFCA*)
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (NBR*, BFCA*)
4. The Dark Knight (NBR*, BFCA*)
4. Frost/Nixon (NBR*, BFCA*)
4. Milk (NBR*, BFCA*)
4. Wall-E (NBR*, BFCA*)

Director
1. Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire” (BIFA, WAFCA, BCFA*)
2. David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (NBR, BFCA*)
3. Lance Hammer, “Ballast” (GIFA, ISA*)
4. Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon” (BFCA*)
4. Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight” (BFCA*)
4. Gus Van Sant, “Milk” (BFCA*)

Actor
1. Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler” (ISA*, WAFCA, BFCA*)
2. Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino” (NBR, BFCA*)
3. Michael Fassbender, “Hunger” (BIFA)
4. Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor” (ISA*, BFCA*)
4. Sean Penn, “Milk” (ISA*, BFCA*)

Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married” (ISA*, NBR, BFCA*)
2. Melissa Leo, “Frozen River” (GIFA, ISA*, BFCA*)
3. Meryl Streep, “Doubt” (WAFCA, BFCA*)
4. Vera Farmiga, “The Boy in the Striped Pajamas” (BIFA)
5. Kate Beckinsale, “Nothing But The Truth” (BFCA*)
5. Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (BFCA*)
5. Angelina Jolie, “Changeling” (BFCA*)

Supporting Actor
1. Josh Brolin, “Milk” (NBR, BFCA*)
1. Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight” (WAFCA, BFCA*)
3. Eddie Marsan, “Happy-Go-Lucky” (BIFA)
4. James Franco, “Milk” (ISA*, BFCA*)
5. Robert Downey, Jr., “Tropic Thunder” (BFCA*)
5. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt” (BFCA*)

Supporting Actress
1. Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (ISA*, NBR, BFCA*)
1. Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel Getting Married” (ISA*, WAFCA)
3. Alexis Zegerman, “Happy-Go-Lucky” (BIFA)
4. Viola Davis, “Doubt” (BFCA*)
4. Vera Farmiga, “Nothing But The Truth” (BFCA*)
4. Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (BFCA*)
4. Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler” (BFCA*)
4. Kate Winslet, “The Reader” (BFCA*)

Screenplay, Adapted
1. Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire” (NBR**, WAFCA, BFCA*)
2. Eric Roth, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (NBR**, BFCA*)
2. Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon” (BFCA*)
2. John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt” (BFCA*)

Screenplay, Original
1. Nick Schenk, “Gran Torino” (NBR)
1. Jenny Lumet, “Rachel Getting Married” (WAFCA)
3. Martin McDonagh, “In Bruges” (BIFA)
4. Dustin Lance Black, “Milk” (BFCA*)
5. Woody Allen, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (ISA*)
5. Anna Fleck and Ryan Boden, “Sugar” (ISA*)
5. Charlie Kaufman, “Synecdoche, New York” (ISA*)
5. Howard A. Rodman, “Savage Grace” (ISA*)
5. Christopher Zalla, “Sangre de Mi Sangre” (ISA*)

Animated
1. Wall-E (AA*, NBR, BFCA*)
2. Bolt (AA*, BFCA*)
2. Kung Fu Panda (AA*, BFCA*)
2. Waltz With Bashir (AA*, BFCA*)

Documentary
1. Man On Wire (BIFA, ISA*, NBR, WAFCA, BFCA*)
2. Trouble The Water (GIFA)
3. I.O.U.S.A (BFCA*)
3. Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired (BFCA*)
3. Standard Operating Procedure (BFCA*)
3. Young At Heart (BFCA*)

Foreign Film
1. Sweden, “Let The Right One In” (NBR*, WAFCA, BFCA*)
2. Israel, “Waltz With Bashir” (BIFA, NBR*, BFCA*)
3. Italy, “Gomorrah” (ISA*, BFCA*)
4. France, “A Christmas Tale” (BFCA*)
4. France, “I’ve Loved You So Long” (BFCA*)
4. Germany, “The Edge of Heaven” (NBR*)

Music (Score)
1. Alexandre Desplat, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (BFCA*)
1. Clint Eastwood, “Changeling” (BFCA*)
1. Danny Elfman, “Milk” (BFCA*)
1. Hans Zimmer & James Newton Howard, “The Dark Knight” (BFCA*)
1. A.R. Rahman, “Slumdog Millionaire” (BFCA*)

Music (Song)
1. Bolt, “I Thought I Lost You” (BFCA*)
1. Quantum of Solace, “Another Way To Die” (BFCA*)
1. Slumdog Millionaire, “Jaiho” (BFCA*)
1. Wall-E, “Down To Earth” (BFCA*)
1. The Wrestler, “The Wrestler” (BFCA*)

Cinematography
1. Sean Bobbit, “Hunger” (BIFA)
2. Maryse Alberti, “The Wrestler” (ISA*)
2. Lol Crowley, “Ballast” (ISA*)
2. James Laxton, “Medicine for Melancholy” (ISA*)
2. Harris Savides, “Milk” (ISA*)
2. Michael Simmonds, “Chop Shop” (ISA*)

Is the Screenplay for The Dark Knight gonna be eligible for Original or adapted screenplay since it's based on the Batman comics of course?

And also the "Little Person" song from Synecdoche New York better get nominated for Best Song.
And also hardercore you are nuts if you think Benjamin Button WONT get a cinematography nom at the least. The fall should hopefully make an appearance in that category as well. I know these are just what has won so far but I think than BB will at least get a nom in that category.

hardercore didn't throw his opinion out, he just added up the current wins/nominations that movies have. Ben has yet to get a win for Cinematography.

I'm sure the race will change considerably when the next forty or so groups have their say. Keep tabs, I'm sure Button will get it's due in Cinematography, art direction, etc. It might also pay to note that Button has a very late release date and some of these early critic groups may not have even seen it yet.

2008 LA Film Critics Awards

Picture: “Wall-E”(:down:-ohbfrank--ohbfrank--ohbfrank-) Runner-up: “The Dark Knight”

Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire” Runner-up: Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”

Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk” Runner-up: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”

Actress: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky” Runner-up: Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”

Supporting actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight” Runner-up: Eddie Marsan, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and “Elegy” Runner-up: Viola Davis, “Doubt”

Screenplay: Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky” Runner-up: Charlie Kaufman, “Synecdoche, New York”

Foreign-language film: “Still Life” Runner-up: “The Class”

Documentary: “Man on Wire” Runner-up: “Waltz With Bashir”

Animation: “Waltz With Bashir”

Cinematography: Yu Lik Wai, “Still Life” Runner-up: Anthony Dod Mantle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Production design: Mark Friedberg, “Synecdoche, New York” Runner-up: Nathan Crowley, “The Dark Knight”

Music/score: A.R. Rahman, “Slumdog Millionaire” Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

New Generation: Steve McQueen, “Hunger”

Douglas E. Edwards independent/experimental film/video: James Benning, “RR” and “Casting a Glance”

Great news for Wall-E...I see nothing wrong with this choice. The Academy will NOT nominate it for Best Picture, though (the Best Animated Feature category was specifically created for that reason), so it's not much help as a precursor this year.

Yeah, what's with the eye rolling? "Wall-E" is one of the best reviewed movies of the year. Even more so than "The Dark Knight", if only by a hair. But like MoviePage points out, it most certainly won't get an Oscar Best Picture nomination. But it's definitely one of the year's best IMO.

Thanks chris_sc77 for posting the LA critics picks. Could the Mods rename this thread perhaps "Critics Awards 2008" or something like that - there's more critics group picks on the way, and a single thread for all of them would keep things less cluttered.

Wow I was way off. I thought for sure that LA would go for Milk and if not they would go for Slumdog or Road. I have no problem with them picking Wall*E for best picture of the year. I'm still thinking that NY critics are going to pick Slumdog, but with LA going for Wall*E, I'm wondering if they are going to pick Dark Knight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerry P.
The 'Brokeback Mountain' loss plus Proposition 8 equals a sure-bet Best Picture win for 'Milk.'


Wha!? "Brokeback Mountain" was a great film. And DESERVED to win Best Picture. Not the adult after school special that was "Crash". And ALL actors in "Brokeback" are just as good as the film.

I'm thinkin' New York will go for Dark Knight. Chicago definately should. Those two big ones should give the film a boost. SF will go for Milk.

Having seen it I think you're wrong, it's excellent. BTW avoid spoilers if you can.