DVD Talk Forum

DVD Talk Forum (https://forum.dvdtalk.com/)
-   Movie Talk (https://forum.dvdtalk.com/movie-talk-17/)
-   -   The 81st Academy Awards — 2009 Oscar pre-nomination discussion (https://forum.dvdtalk.com/movie-talk/542535-81st-academy-awards-%97-2009-oscar-pre-nomination-discussion.html)

Anonymous2008 10-30-08 03:58 PM

I predict Gran Torino to be a flop. I personally can't bear Eastwood's Batman voice.

harrydoyle 10-30-08 04:46 PM

I say best picture for 'Curious Case of Benjamin Button', its got the best overall cast, story and graphics. Fincher got robbed on 'Zodiac' but I'm feeling this is his year.

Groucho 10-30-08 04:53 PM


Originally Posted by BJacks (Post 9038310)
Besides, Wahlberg's performance in The Happening was waaaaaay scarier than all of those.

"Hello, plastic house plant. You live in a pot. I produce Entourage. Say hi to your mother for me."

Senor Javi 10-31-08 05:11 PM


Originally Posted by Groucho (Post 9039637)
"Hello, plastic house plant. You live in a pot. I produce Entourage. Say hi to your mother for me."

That made me smile.

As for Oscars '09, I think that it's going to be very disappointing. With so few great movies this year and nothing too highly acclaimed on the way I think that the bigger budget movies have a real shot. The Dark Knight I think is a lock and I think that WALL-E has a shot. The Dark Knight I think really deserves it and while I liked WALL-E quite a bit, if it is nominated I think that it will be only because of its ambition. Iron Man I think will be left out in the cold. What I'm thinking is this (mostly just guessing since I've only seen The Dark Knight and WALL-E):

Best Picture
Australia
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
WALL-E

-Possibly Changeling instead of WALL-E.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Baz Luhrmann - Australia
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road

-Possibly Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight instead on Baz Luhrmann or Darren Aronofsky.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

-Possibly Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt or Benico del Toro for Guerrilla instead of Clint Eastwood.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Nicole Kidman - Australia
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road


If I had to guess I'd say The Dark Knight takes Best Picture, Sam Mendes wins Best Director, Mickey Rourke gets Best Actor, and Kate Winslet finally nabs Best Actress. I'm sure these will be totally wrong, but it's fun speculating when you haven't seen any of the movies.

PopcornTreeCt 10-31-08 06:02 PM

I think Nolan has a better shot at a Directing nomination than The Dark Knight does at Best Picture. The grand epic scale of the film (including the IMAX scenes) along with the great acting has him locked up.

Coral 10-31-08 09:47 PM

I find it funny that someone can't predict a film will be bad based only on the trailer, but it's perfectly fine to predict an Oscar nomination based on the same thing.

Also, where's the predictions for films outside of the US? Every year the pre-nomination prediction threads ignore most (or all) foreign language films even though most years a few wind up getting nominated.

chaz k 10-31-08 11:57 PM


Originally Posted by beavis69 (Post 9034939)
I personally think both Wall-E and Dark Knight are better than Million Doller Baby, The Departed and Crash.

I know everyone is entitled to there opinion, but Wall-E better than The departed......wow

Senor Javi 11-01-08 12:11 PM


Originally Posted by Coral (Post 9042556)
I find it funny that someone can't predict a film will be bad based only on the trailer, but it's perfectly fine to predict an Oscar nomination based on the same thing.

Also, where's the predictions for films outside of the US? Every year the pre-nomination prediction threads ignore most (or all) foreign language films even though most years a few wind up getting nominated.

I'm not predicting them based on the trailers, I'm predicting them based on the people involved and subject matters as well as any available reviews. Their are typical "awards movies," you know.

JohnSlider 11-01-08 12:23 PM


Originally Posted by Senor Javi (Post 9043201)
I'm not predicting them based on the trailers, I'm predicting them based on the people involved and subject matters as well as any available reviews. Their are typical "awards movies," you know.

Burn After Reading was written and directed by Oscar winners, and stars three Oscar winners and two others who were nominated for Oscars. I do not see any nominations for them this year. I feel it is nearly impossible to predict Oscar nominees until you hear what critics have to say.

abe55 11-01-08 01:19 PM


Originally Posted by Torchur317 (Post 9035458)
That's a joke..... :lol: -rolleyes-

I'd personally take WALL-E any-day over those three mediocre films. That said, it won't get nominated for best picture. The Dark Knight will though, and although some disagree, I think if it was released in 07 it would have been nominated as well.

gryffinmaster 11-01-08 01:34 PM

For those of you curious about Waltz with Bashir, here's a quick link to the full trailer:

http://waltzwithbashir.com/wwbtrailer.html

Senor Javi 11-01-08 01:39 PM


Originally Posted by John Slider (Post 9043222)
Burn After Reading was written and directed by Oscar winners, and stars three Oscar winners and two others who were nominated for Oscars. I do not see any nominations for them this year. I feel it is nearly impossible to predict Oscar nominees until you hear what critics have to say.

Subject matter. I don't think that anyone thought a comedy with the synopsis "a disk containing the memoirs of a CIA agent ends up in the hands of two unscrupulous gym employees who attempt to sell it" had anyone thinking Oscar material. It certainly isn't an awards movie.

I find it funny that people are getting all up-in-arms over me speculating about potential Oscar nominees in a thread called "The 81st Academy Awards — 2009 Oscar pre-nomination discussion." What are we supposed to talk about?

I personally think that it fun to make predictions site-unseen and see how the list compares to what the actual nominations are and how I feel after I see all the movie. I want to see how right or wrong I am based on my initial impressions and how I think that the academy works. I didn't realize I was committing some great sin.

PopcornTreeCt 11-01-08 03:57 PM


Originally Posted by abe55 (Post 9043281)
I'd personally take WALL-E any-day over those three mediocre films. That said, it won't get nominated for best picture. The Dark Knight will though, and although some disagree, I think if it was released in 07 it would have been nominated as well.

That's a tough call. I think The Dark Knight may have been nominated last year, however, NCFOM would still easily win. In 2008 The Dark Knight has a legitimate shot of winning Best Picture.

Mr. Cinema 11-25-08 09:30 AM

Still weeks away from the nominations, but after more Oscar reading, I'm saying these are locks for Best Picture as of now:

1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Revolutionary Road
4. The Dark Knight

That leaves 1 spot for these films: Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Gran Turino (don't count out Clint), The Reader.

I didn't think this before, but I believe TDK is now a certain nominee.

Daytripper 11-25-08 10:12 AM


Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema (Post 9093554)
Still weeks away from the nominations, but after more Oscar reading, I'm saying these are locks for Best Picture as of now:

1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Revolutionary Road
4. The Dark Knight

That leaves 1 spot for these films: Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Gran Turino (don't count out Clint), The Reader.

I didn't think this before, but I believe TDK is now a certain nominee.

I think you're right on the money with your Top #4 predictions. Before this week, I would have included "Australia", but the reviews are now too mixed. It most definitely won't be getting a Best Picture nomination. I slot #5 will be either "Doubt" or "Frost/Nixon".

In the Best Supporting Actress category, I'm really bummed Anjelica Houstan's terrific performance in "Choke" is all but forgotten.

RichC2 11-25-08 10:25 AM

From an article/blog posting by Roger Ebert (Note: these aren't his picks), nothing to put money into but I wouldn't be surprised.

Best Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) - "Winner. Anyone elses award will be the nomination itself."

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
The Reader
Competing for the final spot: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Wall-E (Unlikely)

Best Actor:
"Locks":
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Sean Penn (Milk)

Competing for the other spots:
Clint Eastwood (Apparently favored, Gran Torino)
Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Josh Brolin (W.)
Ralph Fiennes (The Reader)

Best Actress:
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, The Reader)
Kristin Scott Thomas (I've Loved You So Long)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Sally Hawkins (Happy Go-Lucky)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Rosemary DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married)
Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Sophie Okonedo (Secret Life of Bees)

Best Director:
Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)

chris_sc77 11-25-08 10:47 AM

I do not see Slumdog Mllionaire getting a Best Picture nomination.

RIght now Im thinking the Best PIcture Nominees will look like this:

Austrailia (Or possibly The Wrestler)
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark KNight
Milk
Revolutionary Road

BJacks 11-25-08 10:58 AM

I saw The Reader last night and I don't see it getting a best picture. It felt a little choppy (and a tad boring). There are definitely five better pics out there.

RichC2 11-25-08 11:03 AM


Originally Posted by chris_sc77 (Post 9093745)
I do not see Slumdog Mllionaire getting a Best Picture nomination.

RIght now Im thinking the Best PIcture Nominees will look like this:

Austrailia (Or possibly The Wrestler)
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark KNight
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Slumdog fills the Little Miss Sunshine/Juno spot for this year. It's an exotic, kinetic crowd-pleaser that has been extremely well received and is doing gangbusters in limited release. I'd be surprised if it wasn't nominated (though I haven't seen it yet, so it could be complete garbage, but it fits that quota in terms of current reception.)

I'm surprised though, you of all people not behind a movie that runs 2 hours and is rated R? What is the world coming to?

^ The Reader didn't look particularly great to me either :shrug:

ReduxGuy 11-25-08 11:45 AM

I do believe these will be the Top 8 nominations:

Picture of the Year
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
MILK
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Director
Darren Aronofsky, THE WRESTLER
Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT
Gus Van Sant, MILK

Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn, MILK
Brad Pitt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Sally Hawkins, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Kristen Scott Thomas, I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin, MILK
Robert Downey Jr., TROPIC THUNDER
James Franco, MILK
Philip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT

Actress in a Supporting Role
Penélope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis, DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei, THE WRESTLER
Kate Winslet, THE READER

Original Screenplay
HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
MILK
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
WALL-E

Adapted Screenplay
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
DOUBT
FROST/NIXON
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Zen Peckinpah 11-25-08 01:12 PM

I still think Dark Knight has a strong chance of winning Best Picture and Director if nominated. IMO the nominations it'll get:

Picture
Director
Supp. Actor (Ledger)
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Art Direction
Editing
Makeup
Visual Effects
Sound
Sound Editing

Yes, it has the potential.

Mr. Cinema 11-25-08 01:28 PM

Actor is usually the more exciting race to watch, but this year, Actress is very strong. I don't see her listed in some of the recent posts here, but I've read Cate Blanchett is terrific in Benjamin Button. I would definitely put her in the top 5 and possibly the front-runner. Streep and Winslet will make that a solid 3. Kristen Scott Thomas and Anne Hathaway round out the top 5.

toddly6666 11-25-08 01:29 PM

Does THE FALL have any chance in any of the categories?

Mr. Cinema 11-25-08 01:33 PM


Originally Posted by toddly6666 (Post 9094089)
Does THE FALL have any chance in any of the categories?

The technical ones.

Cinematography, Art Direction, Make-up, Visual Effects

Daytripper 11-25-08 01:41 PM

If you bet that "Slumdog" won't get a Best Picture nomination, you will lose.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:06 PM.


Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.