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The 81st Academy Awards 2009 Oscar pre-nomination discussion

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The 81st Academy Awards 2009 Oscar pre-nomination discussion

Old 10-29-08, 01:41 AM
  #26  
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I have a friend that got to go tonight to the world premiere at the Castro Theatre of Milk and said it's one of the best pictures of the year and that it's Van Sants Masterpiece. She said that the word of mouth will help the picture but that Focus needs to get something together to help promote the film. So from the looks of it and from what I've read from others that got to see test screenings I bet the film film will be a lock for best picture, director, screenplay, and actor. The only other film I feel will be a lock is Dark Knight. Ebert said in his Answer Man back in July that he would be would be astonished were it not nominated. No one has seen The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but from what I've seen from the trailer I have a feeling that it's going to be too "odd" for the Academy. I don't think that there was enough backlash for Zodiac not being up for best picture last year to get Case up for best picture on that alone. Gran Torino had a screening where people said that Eastwood will get a nom for best actor, but nothing was said about it being in the running for best picture or anything else. Frost/Nixon I've heard will get some acting noms, but from the screenings people have said doesn't stand a chance for best picture. Australia looks like it has a chances just because it's an epic. Slumdog Millionaire, Happy Go Lucky, Doubt, and The Wrestler seem to be dark horses right now as they stand. But I think they will pick up some acting noms, and I think at least Danny Boyle will get a director nom for Slumdog. As for Iron Man and Wall*E for best picture it's a fat chance. Wall*E is the shoe in for best animated film. I had heard that Paramount was going to push Downey Jr for Tropic Thunder, but not for Iron Man.
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Old 10-29-08, 06:06 AM
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Oscars 2008 Predictions:

Best Picture
Benjamin Button
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
Frost/Nixon
The Wrestler

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Brad Pitt - Benjamin Button
Sean Penn - Milk
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Leonardo Di Caprio - Revolutionary Road


Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Jason Butler Harner - Changeling
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon
Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess
Liev Schreiber - Defiance


Best Supporting Actress
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - Benjamin Button
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Vera Farmiga - Nothing But the Truth
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Old 10-29-08, 07:15 AM
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I think the article is ridiculously overoptimistic in thinking that comic-book movies like these are going to be Best Picture nominees. Unless the Academy decide that they're going to imitate the Golden Globes or the MTV Awards, I just can't see it happening. The Dark Knight is a clumsy, sadistic, incoherent mess of a story that if the ReelGeezer's review is anything to go by did not go down at all well with elderly Academy voters. Heath Ledger for supporting? Maybe, but he's dead & there's little benefit for WB in pushing him. Robert Downey is a popular figure with the Academy but is it his starring role in Iron Man (another comic book exercise) or his supporting turn in Tropic Thunder they'll go for? Both were big hits but I'm betting it's the latter.

With the rest it's really hard to say. Danny Boyle's film Slumdog Millionaire will probably pick up critics prizes but if it's subtitled &/or it stiffs at the box office, forget it. The Wrestler is a small arthouse pic, again lots of critics prizes but BO appeal debatable & Rourke is by some accounts not a popular industry figure which could hurt his chances.

Changeling is, as Variety's Anne Thompson called it, 'manna for adults' & a big studio pic to boot - both plusses. As per the critical reaction the ReelGeezers were split on it - Lorenzo loved it, Marcia disliked it, but both feel Jolie will be nominated. The negative reactions may not have much effect in the long run as on the evidence so far there are just as many that love Changeling as don't & the film has gotten off to a spectacular start at the box office ($502, 000 on just 15 screens in 3 days).

Eastwood's other pic Gran Torino is the beneficiary of a Warner campaign to get him an acting Oscar. The trailer looks like a crowdpleaser &, like Million Dollar Baby, hints at something deeper going on beneath the familiar scenario. Whether or not the film does have any depth - & the few script reviews floating around suggest that it has - the setup of an elderly white racist befriending immigrants in his neighborhood has an obvious contemporary resonance that could easily make it Oscar bait in more ways than just Eastwood's role.

Doubt, Benjamin Button & Australia have still to be seen. I have severe doubts about Fincher, a director of remarkably limited range based on his previous work & BB is reportedly two & a half or three hours long. Those aren't insurmountable obstacles but until I see some legit reviews I'm not holding my breath. Australia seems to me hampered by two leads, neither of whom have much in the way of blockbuster appeal. Yes, Hugh Jackman is THE star of the X-Men franchaise but outside of that he hasn't been able to open anything & Nicole Kidman hasn't had a hit in I can't remember how long. The apparent lack of chemistry between them in the admittedly brief footage I've seen also gives me pause. Revolutionary Road practically sends me to sleep every time I see the trailer or the poster. I can't think of anything more calculated to bore an audience rigid than a domestic drama about the sterility of middle class American life in the 1950's. Right now recession is starting to bite. This is the last thing anybody (outside of the die hard Kate & Leo fans) will want to go & see - & at Christmas as well!

Not sure what else there is - two little indie pics The Visitor & Lovely Still might score acting noms for Richard Jenkins in the former & possibly Martin Landau & Ellen Burstyn (both popular figures with Academy voters) in the latter. But as with all these indie pics they need strong critical awards, a big push by their distributors & at least some BO success. And that's another point that should be mentioned - in the current climate studios & distribs are scaling back drastically on Oscar season marketing spends. The days of throwing away tens of millions of dollars just to get a film a nomination are gone. That's going to have a big impact.

Last edited by Sid Yobbo; 10-29-08 at 07:48 AM.
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Old 10-29-08, 07:32 AM
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Originally Posted by chris_sc77 View Post
If Wall-e gets a best picture nomination I will never watch the Oscars again in my lifetime.
I'll join you there. Wall-E was absolute crap.
Originally Posted by MaxMFP View Post
A nomination I meant. It'll get a nomination for sure.
It won't.
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Old 10-29-08, 08:22 AM
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The only lock I would guess for a Best Picture nomination is "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button". We still have 2 months for these other movies to come out.

Even though it's early, I'd also guess "Frost/Nixon" and "Revolutionary Road" will get nominated.
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Old 10-29-08, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Sid Yobbo View Post
Danny Boyle's film Slumdog Millionaire will probably pick up critics prizes but if it's subtitled &/or it stiffs at the box office, forget it.
Slumdog is an English film with only a small portion in Hindi with subtitles.

The Wrestler is a small arthouse pic, again lots of critics prizes but BO appeal debatable & Rourke is by some accounts not a popular industry figure which could hurt his chances.
I wouldn't bet against a wrestling film in America, especially one that with this much buzz around it. In any case, gross BO won't matter that much to the Academy for a film like this; in their circles, everyone will be seeing it.

Last edited by BJacks; 10-29-08 at 12:24 PM.
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Old 10-29-08, 11:51 AM
  #32  
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Anne Hathaway's nomination is a lock.
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Old 10-29-08, 02:29 PM
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Best Picture- Australia (Milk will be close though)
Best Actor - Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) (Sean Penn Will be close though, I just doubt the Academy will give him a 3rd award.)
Best Actress- Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Best Supp. Actor - Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Best Supp Actress- ?
Director- Baz Luhrman (Austrailia)
Original Screenplay-Milk
Adapted Screenplay- Revolutionary Road


Not my final predictions but just my gut choices for this moment.
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Old 10-29-08, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Anne Hathaway's nomination is a lock.
So is Kristin Scott-Thomas for I've Loved You So Long (the likely winner at this point), and possibly Melissa Leo for Frozen River if the movie gains enough traction and gets enough viewers. But Scott-Thomas is in for certain.
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Old 10-29-08, 02:38 PM
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I could see Angelina Jolie getting a nod in that category as well if the movie weren't so badly received.
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Old 10-29-08, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
I though Kung Fu Panda was better than Wall-E, and hope that if pixar creates a split that the panda gets the animated award
I hope so too.
Even though Wall-E has it's ecological message going for it.
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Old 10-29-08, 02:50 PM
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Would Waltz with Bashir qualify for Best Animated this year?
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Old 10-29-08, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Would Waltz with Bashir qualify for Best Animated this year?
I don't know, good question, I'm sure like Persapolis it'll get locked out for some reason or another.
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Old 10-29-08, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Would Waltz with Bashir qualify for Best Animated this year?
It could qualify for best animated film and best foreign language film. It could've also been eligible for best documentary but it ran into rundate issues.
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Old 10-29-08, 03:18 PM
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Saw the trailer for Gran Torino... wow. Seriously, it looks laughable. Best Actor? Is Warner really going to push for that? It's just another vigilante flick, except more ridiculous because the lead is an old man. Maybe it'll be good but that trailer has me staying far away.
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Old 10-29-08, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Trevor View Post

It won't.

Yes it will.
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Old 10-29-08, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt View Post
Saw the trailer for Gran Torino... wow. Seriously, it looks laughable. Best Actor? Is Warner really going to push for that? It's just another vigilante flick, except more ridiculous because the lead is an old man.

So you've seen it already? Wow, how does it end? don't forget to put it in spoiler tags..
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Old 10-29-08, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
I could see Angelina Jolie getting a nod in that category as well if the movie weren't so badly received.
Changeling wasn't badly received. It got mixed reviews like Synechdoche New York and Blindness. You don't need to be in a great reviewed film to get Oscar nominations. e.g. Diane Lane in Unfaithful
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Old 10-29-08, 05:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous2008 View Post
Changeling wasn't badly received. It got mixed reviews like Synechdoche New York and Blindness. You don't need to be in a great reviewed film to get Oscar nominations. e.g. Diane Lane in Unfaithful
I agree that Jolie stands a chance at an Oscar nom (although I haven't seen Changeling, I've heard good things about her. Plus, she's in an Eastwood pic). But I just gotta say...I'm be super super shocked if "Blindness" gets anything. There's nothing particularly memorable in either the performances or the script itself. Synechdoche is a good example of a love-it-or-hate-it mixed reviewed pic...Blindness is just a mediocre film.
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Old 10-29-08, 08:26 PM
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Originally Posted by MaxMFP View Post
So you've seen it already? Wow, how does it end? don't forget to put it in spoiler tags..
I don't think I have to see it to tell you it's a vigilante flick with an old man as the lead.
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Old 10-29-08, 08:31 PM
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt View Post
I don't think I have to see it to tell you it's a vigilante flick with an old man as the lead.
It worked for Oldboy
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Old 10-29-08, 09:10 PM
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt View Post
Saw the trailer for Gran Torino... wow. Seriously, it looks laughable. Best Actor? Is Warner really going to push for that? It's just another vigilante flick, except more ridiculous because the lead is an old man. Maybe it'll be good but that trailer has me staying far away.
I'm so glad I'm not the only one who feels this way. I saw the trailer for "Gran Torino" and just cringed the whole time. And yet, people all over the internet are creaming their jeans over it. It looks terrible and unintentionally hilarious. That gang (in real life) would have tied Eastwood to the back of their car and dragged him to his death. The premise is beyond ridiculous.

Moving on, "The Fall" better win for Best Cinematography. And "The Incredible Hulk" for sound. I hope "The Dark Knight" gets a Best Picture nomination. It certainly deserves it. And I'm really bummed two smaller films released earlier this year will most definitely be overlooked in the acting categories. "In Bruges" and "Elegy". All three actors in "In Bruges" turned in award winning performances. And I haven't seen a better performance than Ben Kingsley in "Elegy" so far in 2008. All that said, I've been looking forward to "Australia" ever since I heard it was announced. And it looks absolutely incredible. If it's as good as the previews are, I want it to win Best Picture.
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Old 10-29-08, 10:48 PM
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Originally Posted by toddly6666 View Post
I can't think of too many films that are award-worthy. Here are a few which should get awarded for something:

Lakeview Terrace (for Samuel L. Jackson)


You can't be serious.

= J
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Old 10-30-08, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Tarantino View Post


You can't be serious.

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After Ledger's Joker and Eckhart's Two-Face, I think Samuel L. Jackson comes in third for giving the scariest performance...They gave it to Denzel for Training Day, so why not Jackson for this flick?
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Old 10-30-08, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by toddly6666 View Post
After Ledger's Joker and Eckhart's Two-Face, I think Samuel L. Jackson comes in third for giving the scariest performance...They gave it to Denzel for Training Day, so why not Jackson for this flick?
Because you're talking about the Oscars and not the Scream Awards. Besides, Wahlberg's performance in The Happening was waaaaaay scarier than all of those.
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