Yes it will.

So you've seen it already? Wow, how does it end? don't forget to put it in spoiler tags..

Changeling wasn't badly received. It got mixed reviews like Synechdoche New York and Blindness. You don't need to be in a great reviewed film to get Oscar nominations. e.g. Diane Lane in Unfaithful

I agree that Jolie stands a chance at an Oscar nom (although I haven't seen Changeling, I've heard good things about her. Plus, she's in an Eastwood pic). But I just gotta say...I'm be super super shocked if "Blindness" gets anything. There's nothing particularly memorable in either the performances or the script itself. Synechdoche is a good example of a love-it-or-hate-it mixed reviewed pic...Blindness is just a mediocre film.

I don't think I have to see it to tell you it's a vigilante flick with an old man as the lead.

:shrug: It worked for Oldboy

I'm so glad I'm not the only one who feels this way. I saw the trailer for "Gran Torino" and just cringed the whole time. And yet, people all over the internet are creaming their jeans over it. It looks terrible and unintentionally hilarious. That gang (in real life) would have tied Eastwood to the back of their car and dragged him to his death. The premise is beyond ridiculous.

Moving on, "The Fall" better win for Best Cinematography. And "The Incredible Hulk" for sound. I hope "The Dark Knight" gets a Best Picture nomination. It certainly deserves it. And I'm really bummed two smaller films released earlier this year will most definitely be overlooked in the acting categories. "In Bruges" and "Elegy". All three actors in "In Bruges" turned in award winning performances. And I haven't seen a better performance than Ben Kingsley in "Elegy" so far in 2008. All that said, I've been looking forward to "Australia" ever since I heard it was announced. And it looks absolutely incredible. If it's as good as the previews are, I want it to win Best Picture.

:lol:

You can't be serious.

= J

After Ledger's Joker and Eckhart's Two-Face, I think Samuel L. Jackson comes in third for giving the scariest performance...They gave it to Denzel for Training Day, so why not Jackson for this flick?

Because you're talking about the Oscars and not the Scream Awards. Besides, Wahlberg's performance in The Happening was waaaaaay scarier than all of those.

I predict Gran Torino to be a flop. I personally can't bear Eastwood's Batman voice.

I say best picture for 'Curious Case of Benjamin Button', its got the best overall cast, story and graphics. Fincher got robbed on 'Zodiac' but I'm feeling this is his year.

"Hello, plastic house plant. You live in a pot. I produce Entourage. Say hi to your mother for me."

That made me smile.

As for Oscars '09, I think that it's going to be very disappointing. With so few great movies this year and nothing too highly acclaimed on the way I think that the bigger budget movies have a real shot. The Dark Knight I think is a lock and I think that WALL-E has a shot. The Dark Knight I think really deserves it and while I liked WALL-E quite a bit, if it is nominated I think that it will be only because of its ambition. Iron Man I think will be left out in the cold. What I'm thinking is this (mostly just guessing since I've only seen The Dark Knight and WALL-E):

Best Picture
Australia
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
WALL-E

-Possibly Changeling instead of WALL-E.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Baz Luhrmann - Australia
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road

-Possibly Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight instead on Baz Luhrmann or Darren Aronofsky.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

-Possibly Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt or Benico del Toro for Guerrilla instead of Clint Eastwood.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Nicole Kidman - Australia
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road


If I had to guess I'd say The Dark Knight takes Best Picture, Sam Mendes wins Best Director, Mickey Rourke gets Best Actor, and Kate Winslet finally nabs Best Actress. I'm sure these will be totally wrong, but it's fun speculating when you haven't seen any of the movies.

I think Nolan has a better shot at a Directing nomination than The Dark Knight does at Best Picture. The grand epic scale of the film (including the IMAX scenes) along with the great acting has him locked up.

I find it funny that someone can't predict a film will be bad based only on the trailer, but it's perfectly fine to predict an Oscar nomination based on the same thing.

Also, where's the predictions for films outside of the US? Every year the pre-nomination prediction threads ignore most (or all) foreign language films even though most years a few wind up getting nominated.

I know everyone is entitled to there opinion, but Wall-E better than The departed......wow

I'm not predicting them based on the trailers, I'm predicting them based on the people involved and subject matters as well as any available reviews. Their are typical "awards movies," you know.

Burn After Reading was written and directed by Oscar winners, and stars three Oscar winners and two others who were nominated for Oscars. I do not see any nominations for them this year. I feel it is nearly impossible to predict Oscar nominees until you hear what critics have to say.

I'd personally take WALL-E any-day over those three mediocre films. That said, it won't get nominated for best picture. The Dark Knight will though, and although some disagree, I think if it was released in 07 it would have been nominated as well.

For those of you curious about Waltz with Bashir, here's a quick link to the full trailer:

http://waltzwithbashir.com/wwbtrailer.html

Subject matter. I don't think that anyone thought a comedy with the synopsis "a disk containing the memoirs of a CIA agent ends up in the hands of two unscrupulous gym employees who attempt to sell it" had anyone thinking Oscar material. It certainly isn't an awards movie.

I find it funny that people are getting all up-in-arms over me speculating about potential Oscar nominees in a thread called "The 81st Academy Awards — 2009 Oscar pre-nomination discussion." What are we supposed to talk about?

I personally think that it fun to make predictions site-unseen and see how the list compares to what the actual nominations are and how I feel after I see all the movie. I want to see how right or wrong I am based on my initial impressions and how I think that the academy works. I didn't realize I was committing some great sin.

That's a tough call. I think The Dark Knight may have been nominated last year, however, NCFOM would still easily win. In 2008 The Dark Knight has a legitimate shot of winning Best Picture.

Still weeks away from the nominations, but after more Oscar reading, I'm saying these are locks for Best Picture as of now:

1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Revolutionary Road
4. The Dark Knight

That leaves 1 spot for these films: Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Gran Turino (don't count out Clint), The Reader.

I didn't think this before, but I believe TDK is now a certain nominee.

I think you're right on the money with your Top #4 predictions. Before this week, I would have included "Australia", but the reviews are now too mixed. It most definitely won't be getting a Best Picture nomination. I slot #5 will be either "Doubt" or "Frost/Nixon".

In the Best Supporting Actress category, I'm really bummed Anjelica Houstan's terrific performance in "Choke" is all but forgotten.

From an article/blog posting by Roger Ebert (Note: these aren't his picks), nothing to put money into but I wouldn't be surprised.

Best Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) - "Winner. Anyone elses award will be the nomination itself."

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
The Reader
Competing for the final spot: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Wall-E (Unlikely)

Best Actor:
"Locks":
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Sean Penn (Milk)

Competing for the other spots:
Clint Eastwood (Apparently favored, Gran Torino)
Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Josh Brolin (W.)
Ralph Fiennes (The Reader)

Best Actress:
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, The Reader)
Kristin Scott Thomas (I've Loved You So Long)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Sally Hawkins (Happy Go-Lucky)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Rosemary DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married)
Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Sophie Okonedo (Secret Life of Bees)

Best Director:
Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)

I do not see Slumdog Mllionaire getting a Best Picture nomination.

RIght now Im thinking the Best PIcture Nominees will look like this:

Austrailia (Or possibly The Wrestler)
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark KNight
Milk
Revolutionary Road

I saw The Reader last night and I don't see it getting a best picture. It felt a little choppy (and a tad boring). There are definitely five better pics out there.

Slumdog fills the Little Miss Sunshine/Juno spot for this year. It's an exotic, kinetic crowd-pleaser that has been extremely well received and is doing gangbusters in limited release. I'd be surprised if it wasn't nominated (though I haven't seen it yet, so it could be complete garbage, but it fits that quota in terms of current reception.)

I'm surprised though, you of all people not behind a movie that runs 2 hours and is rated R? What is the world coming to?

^ The Reader didn't look particularly great to me either :shrug:

I do believe these will be the Top 8 nominations:

Picture of the Year
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
MILK
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Director
Darren Aronofsky, THE WRESTLER
Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT
Gus Van Sant, MILK

Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn, MILK
Brad Pitt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Sally Hawkins, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Kristen Scott Thomas, I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin, MILK
Robert Downey Jr., TROPIC THUNDER
James Franco, MILK
Philip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT

Actress in a Supporting Role
Penélope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis, DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei, THE WRESTLER
Kate Winslet, THE READER

Original Screenplay
HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
MILK
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
WALL-E

Adapted Screenplay
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
DOUBT
FROST/NIXON
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

I still think Dark Knight has a strong chance of winning Best Picture and Director if nominated. IMO the nominations it'll get:

Picture
Director
Supp. Actor (Ledger)
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Art Direction
Editing
Makeup
Visual Effects
Sound
Sound Editing

Yes, it has the potential.

Actor is usually the more exciting race to watch, but this year, Actress is very strong. I don't see her listed in some of the recent posts here, but I've read Cate Blanchett is terrific in Benjamin Button. I would definitely put her in the top 5 and possibly the front-runner. Streep and Winslet will make that a solid 3. Kristen Scott Thomas and Anne Hathaway round out the top 5.

Does THE FALL have any chance in any of the categories?

The technical ones.

Cinematography, Art Direction, Make-up, Visual Effects

If you bet that "Slumdog" won't get a Best Picture nomination, you will lose.

Hell, it's going to be fun regardless, but I'm bummed on TDK score getting shafted like There will Be Blood was last year. The only score I liked as much as TDK is Curious Case...

What do people think of the Best Documentary category?

I would agree with your first point but I truly believe Fox Searchlight will push The Wrestler way more than they'll push Slumdog. Wrestler already has Rourke getting a damn near lock in the Actor Category and I think that story will be much more easy for Academy voters to get behind. At least in Fox's mind.
Personally I have not seen Slumdog Millionaire. I know I will because I LOVE danny Boyle. I love most of his movies (except the Beach. I hate the beach.) I even Love A life Less Ordinary. But I thought the trailer sucked. The title sucks. And the premise is stupid. Still those are silly reasons to hate the film when its getting pretty much unanimously great reviews. I look forward to seeing it, it just doesnt look like something that will get Oscar noms. I think Dark Knight stands a better chance.

A few guesses:

Man on Wire (James Marsh)
Standard Operating Procedure (Errol Morris)
Encounters at the End of the World (Werner Herzog)
Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired (Maria Zenovich)

Hopefully Religulous will get a nom. Id also like to see Encounters At the End of the World

Here are some pretty terrific films and performances IMO that will sadly be overlooked at this year's Oscars. Because no one is talking about them.

Best Picture: "In Bruges"

Best Director: Martin McDonagh "In Bruges",

Best Actor: Colin Farrell "In Bruges", Brendan Gleeson "In Bruges", Ben Kingsley "Elegy", Josh Brolin "W", Sam Rockwell "Choke", Steve Coogan "Hamlet 2"

Best Actress: Kate Beckinsale "Snow Angels", Penelope Cruz "Elegy"

Best Supporting Actor: Ralph Fiennes "In Bruges", Peter Macdissi "Towel Head", Brad Pitt "Burn After Reading", James Cromwell "W", Tom Wilkinson "RocknRolla", Russell Brand "Forgetting Sarah Marshall

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams "Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day", Jane Lynch "Role Models", Ellen Burstyn "W", Anjelica Huston, "Choke", Catherine Keener "Hamlet 2", Vera Farmiga "The Boy in the Striped Pajamasx`

Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh "In Bruges", Pam Brady and Andrew Flemming "Hamlet 2"

Best Adapted Screenplay: Clark Gregg "Choke"