What's going to win Best Picture this year?
 

Pick now or forever hold ye peace. :)

Damn, I messed up the poll a bit. If there's a mod reading, please delete Changeling and Crossing Over on the 1st and 3rd choices.

I don't even have a clue as to what would be nominated. Don't they usually come out in the fall?

My predictions, most of them without seeing the movies:

The Dark Knight has an excellent shot at winning and basically is guaranteed a nomination for Picture and Director.

Changeling will get Picture and Director noms and Jolie will win.

Miracle at St. Anna, if lauded enough, will finally get Spike Lee the Best Director nomination he should have already received twice, three if you think 25th Hour was as great as it was. If he doesn't win and Nolan does, expect Nolan to be deemed a racist and the magic trick scene even more so.

Australia gets several nominations. They should just call it Once Upon a Time in Australia.

Milk, Revolutionary Road, W....those are the wild cards.

The Soloist would have been a frontrunner and won if this was 2002.

I'm predicting Sean Penn gets Best Actor for Milk. Che doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of receiving any major awards.

http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/440...ml5bml5hq5.jpg
No man. You never go full gay.

Hence why the French loved it.

Considering the fact that Anne Hathaway is getting Oscar hype, I don't know what to believe anymore.

I haven't seen enough movies to call Best Picture yet, nor the noms. But I wouldn't doubt Changeling and Miracle at Santa Anna.

Personally I want WALL-E. WALL-E's bigger than Best Animated Feature. It's only been 17 years since the last BP nod and Pixar deserves it. Andrew Stanton deserves it, creating two amazing worlds one underwater and one in space.


If WALL-E gets jack, I hope Young Victoria can still make the cut for the year.

Too early to tell. Che, TDK, Soloist, are all top contenders. Ask us again in Jan 09.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

It's way too soon to tell, but Australia is my wild guess.

Do people really think The Dark Knight is getting nominated?

As of now, I'd say either Benjamin Button or Milk.

I think a Directing nom could be in order, but I think Picture is a little too much. It's a phenomenal film (my choice for the Best of 08 so far) and if it does get nommed, I won't complain. But if it is nommed, it won't be because of its technical or critical worth. It'll be to draw in more viewers, like when Juno got nominated over the FAR superior Sweeney Todd.

I would say Dark Knight gets nommed for:

Supporting Actor
Cinematography
Editing
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Original Score (there's no denying the power and terror brought on by that first minute of "Why So Serious" and Zimmer hasn't been nommed in a while)
Visual Effects
Makeup

Being more ambitious doesn't make it superior. And critically, Juno received slightly more acclaim.

I do agree it would be odd if The Dark Knight got a Best Picture nom, I'm just not used to Best Pic noms being THAT entertaining (they usually move me in other ways).

What about the one by Sam Mendes with Leo DiCrapio and Kate Winslet? Is it called Revolutionary Road? No trailer for that yet, but I can't imagine the buzz won't be huge and it sounds like Oscar material.

no offense, but this thread is retarded.

Yeah, a little too early for this.

If the Academy follows the same pattern, the last two years, the movie that will win Best Picture, is the movie that wins the most precursor Best Picture awards. I wonder if the streak will continue? Predicting the winner this early, is very tough, the past few years. There hasn't been an early year predictable winner since maybe The Return of the King.

That's how it works in pretty much every year

The Dark Knight.

So far there haven't been that many strong contenders, and rightfully so since it's not award-season film-release time yet, but the Academy wants people to watch their show. Specifically, young people. That's why they gave the sceenplay award to a hack like Diablo Cody. The Academy is not above pandering to the public and giving them what they want to see. Given the popularity of TDK I think it's possible they could give it the big award everyone thinks it should get, should nothing too amazing come out by then.

Yes.

Why not? I mean it made a lot of money. That's a good sign. It was critically acclaimed. That's a good sign. Audiences generally loved it. If you can do all three, you're generally going to get Oscar noms.

Granted, the whole field hasn't come out, so you can't draw absolute conclusions. But why wouldn't it get nominated? It hits on everything the Academy normally rewards. And even though it's a summer film, that didn't stop Gladiator, or Crash, or Saving Private Ryan, or Little Miss Sunshine, or the Sixth Sense, from nominations.

I agree with all this but I'm assuming you mean Heath Ledger would get nominated for supporting actor. Wouldn't he be nominated for Best Actor? I'm not really sure how they define actor vs. supporting but it seems that all the actions in the movie were due to The Joker's actions.. therefore making The Joker the main character... therefore making Heath Ledger the Actor and everyone else supporting.

I guess thats just the way I see it, but I'm curious as to someones opinion on why it would be Supporting.

Unless of course you meant Gary Oldman, Christian Bale or Aaron Eckhart getting best supporting actor nods. In which case I would disagree. They were all awesome but I don't think they'd be nominated.

Ledger would be for supporting actor. That's what the talk has been about, and he didn't really have enough screen time for BA anyway. There have been some big supporting roles. Plus, that's the category where he would actually have a chance to win.

I still don't think TDK will get a BP nomination. It just doesn't seem like the kind of movie that would get it. Ledger's nomination will be enough to get people to tune in.

I'm thinking along the lines of Training Day. Denzel had something like 20 minutes less screen time than Ethan Hawke but gets nominated for Best Actor because his actions controlled the plot.

I'm not trying to argue it though. If all the talk has been about best supporting actor than so be it. I don't really care either way.

Full retarded?

I think the best picture nominees will be a bunch of obscure October/November releases. Isn't that when the "Oscar Caliber" films release? Besides, The Academy seems to adore unpredictability. If everyone expects, for example, The Dark Knight to be nominated or even win, then it seems up their alley to omit it from the ballot and jam it in some technical categories just to at least acknowledge it.

I'm going to say The Changeling based on Eastwood's recent work but I wouldn't be surprised to see The Soloist get it based on it's pedigree.