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Box Office Predictions: The Dark Knight [part two]

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Box Office Predictions: The Dark Knight [part two]

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Old 08-05-08, 01:52 AM
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Well, it's not "hurting" anything. All it's hurting is a number placement on a chart that isn't really important because the people who see it on Wednesday will have their money added in to the total gross of the film regardless of whether it's part of the opening weekend gross or not.
Old 08-05-08, 03:27 AM
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I'll be surprised if TDK doesn't hit 500m. And if it gets a re-release toward the end of this year, it could surpass 550m.

Titanic? Just no.
Old 08-05-08, 09:37 AM
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My predictions for this weekend:
(Wednesday thru Sunday):
Dark Knight: 36.22 million
Pineapple Express $28.8 million
Old 08-05-08, 11:08 AM
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http://www.mediabynumbers.com/userfi...DAILIES(5).pdf

TDK - $6.28m Monday Estimate

Domestic Total: $400.031m

Now, with actuals, obviously that could go down, but wow. $400m in 18 days.
Old 08-05-08, 01:19 PM
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400m down
200m to go (ducks then saumersaults out of the thread)
Old 08-05-08, 01:24 PM
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With Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder not getting stellar reviews, and Mummy 3 under performing, it might make a bit more than we think.
Old 08-05-08, 03:56 PM
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$400 million in 18 days. That's insane. I didn't take part in the guessing, but there's no way I would have come close to that.
Old 08-05-08, 07:36 PM
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Didn't some people think it would barely reach $400 mil, even after the first weekend? Seemed obvious to me but the fact that it happened in 18 days is unreal.
Old 08-05-08, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by JPRaup
With Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder not getting stellar reviews, and Mummy 3 under performing, it might make a bit more than we think.
Both Pineapple and Tropic have positive ratings on Rotten Tomatoes. Pineapple currently has 71% and climbing.
Old 08-06-08, 01:40 AM
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I'm looking at boxofficemojo, and the next movie to reach 400m was Shrek2 and it took 43 days. 18 days is just
Old 08-06-08, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by wearetheborg
I'm looking at boxofficemojo, and the next movie to reach 400m was Shrek2 and it took 43 days. 18 days is just
Just saw the same chart. That is just amazing.
Old 08-06-08, 12:03 PM
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$5.67 for Tuesday.

$405.7m so far.
Old 08-06-08, 12:05 PM
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Anyone have the inflation adjusted data for films to reach inflation adjusted 400m ?
Old 08-06-08, 12:08 PM
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Dark Knight would be #63 on that list:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

(Adjusted = assuming each ticket cost $7.08, which of course would have deterred people back in the day from seeing movies to begin with.)
Old 08-06-08, 12:25 PM
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Well how much did movies cost back then (when adjusted for inflation?)
Old 08-06-08, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by RichC2

(Adjusted = assuming each ticket cost $7.08, which of course would have deterred people back in the day from seeing movies to begin with.)

Um how ? A dollar then is worth much more now. Inflation adjusted means "what was the price in todays purchasing power"

Note that the past salaries would also be adjusted upwards due to its increased purchasing power
Old 08-06-08, 01:40 PM
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Yeah, but that's what I mean, they aren't taking into account inflation of the dollar itself, just the inflation of ticket costs. Needless to say, a $7.08 ticket in 1939 wouldn't fly.

Originally Posted by Seantn
Well how much did movies cost back then (when adjusted for inflation?)
Varies pretty drastically, Gone with the Wind cost $3,900,000.00 when it was made in the late 30s, an additional $1,000,000 went into advertising.

That's about $57m production, $14.5m advertising in todays currency. Can't determine what the amount it made ($198m) is worth today as it made that amount over numerous decades. Casablanca was around $1,039,000 back in 42 or about $14.5m today.

Cleopatra had a $44m budget in 1963, that puts it at around $299m in today's cost.

War and Peace (1968, Russian film) holds the unofficial record (officially, Pirates 3 holds the record with a $300m budget), a bit under a $100m budget in 1968 = $615m budget in todays market. Then again, adjusted, Metropolis had what would be around a $200m budget as well. Though I can't prove that one... dunno what the conversion rate was back then.

Terminator 2 was the first movie to break $100m in actual dollar amount.

Last edited by RichC2; 08-06-08 at 02:19 PM.
Old 08-06-08, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by RichC2
Dark Knight would be #63 on that list:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm
I wish there was also a list like that for only the initial theatrical run. The vast majority of the top 25 on that list have benefited from theatrical re-releases.

Personally, I expect the Dark Knight to break $500m but not get much further on its initial theatrical run. I just don't see it having Titanic-like staying power, but who knows at this point? It has performed well beyond other expectations.
Old 08-06-08, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by RichC2
Yeah, but that's what I mean, they aren't taking into account inflation of the dollar itself, just the inflation of ticket costs. Needless to say, a $7.08 ticket in 1939 wouldn't fly.



Varies pretty drastically, Gone with the Wind cost $3,900,000.00 when it was made in the late 30s, an additional $1,000,000 went into advertising.

That's about $57m production, $14.5m advertising in todays currency. Can't determine what the amount it made ($198m) is worth today as it made that amount over numerous decades. Casablanca was around $1,039,000 back in 42 or about $14.5m today.

Cleopatra had a $44m budget in 1963, that puts it at around $299m in today's cost.

War and Peace (1968, Russian film) holds the unofficial record (officially, Pirates 3 holds the record with a $300m budget), a bit under a $100m budget in 1968 = $615m budget in todays market. Then again, adjusted, Metropolis had what would be around a $200m budget as well. Though I can't prove that one... dunno what the conversion rate was back then.


Also,when factoring in these old classics, you have to bare in mind that at the time, the movies were one of the only things going when it comes to entertainment.

"Gone with the Wind" didn't have to compete with videogames, endless and much-expanded sports franchises, the dirth of bands and concerts, the internet, the increased amount of box-office competition (there were, what - 3 studios then?) to say nothing of the Silver Screen's mortal enemy/reluctant business partner - TELEVISION for chrissake.

There was no "home market." It was either go to the movies or watch paint peel while listening to the "The Shadow." (a gross hyperbolic oversimplification, I know, but you get the point)



-Doc
Old 08-06-08, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Doc MacGyver
Also,when factoring in these old classics, you have to bare in mind that at the time, the movies were one of the only things going when it comes to entertainment.

"Gone with the Wind" didn't have to compete with videogames, endless and much-expanded sports franchises, the dirth of bands and concerts, the internet, the increased amount of box-office competition (there were, what - 3 studios then?) to say nothing of the Silver Screen's mortal enemy/reluctant business partner - TELEVISION for chrissake.

There was no "home market." It was either go to the movies or watch paint peel while listening to the "The Shadow." (a gross hyperbolic oversimplification, I know, but you get the point)



-Doc
QFT! I know several people who don't go to the movies any more. They have not even seen The Dark Knight yet!

They would rather wait for the DVD release and watch it in their home theaters.
Old 08-07-08, 01:14 PM
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We finally had a new #1 movie yesterday. Pineapple Express opened with a solid $12 million.
Old 08-07-08, 01:15 PM
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Bats fell to #3 with around $5m.

Sisterhood 2 had $5.7m, Pineapple with $12m. Interested to see how it plays out over the weekend.
Old 08-07-08, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema
We finally had a new #1 movie yesterday. Pineapple Express opened with a solid $12 million.
Wasn't Mummy III the number one movie last Friday? It didn't last for the whole weekend, but I believe it held the #1 spot for that day.
Old 08-07-08, 02:54 PM
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Indeed, sir, indeed.
Old 08-07-08, 02:54 PM
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Just to give a heads up, even with a brand new number one and two at the box office, The Dark Knight still only dropped 10-11%.



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