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Box Office Predictions: will Speed Racer knock off Iron Man this weekend?

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Box Office Predictions: will Speed Racer knock off Iron Man this weekend?

Old 05-07-08, 08:49 AM
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I was surprised to read Bill Hunt's "review" of Speed Racer on the Digital Bits.

He was GUSHING about it - said it was more fun than Iron Man (he said Iron Man was a better movie, but that Speed Racer was more fun). He noted that much of what you see in the movie is straight out of the cartoon, and that long time Speed Racer fans would love it. He did note that it's a, "Turn your brain off at the door," kind of movie, but that it was extremely entertaining nonetheless.

I just wonder if marketing to the kids and fans of the old cartoon is enough. The cartoon really peaked in popularity in the States in the 70's (when I was a kid), so a large percentage (a majority, most likely) of Speed Racer fans are over 40 and may not even go see this movie. The ads and trailers did a poor job of showing the stuff that's straight out of the comic book, and just made it look stupid instead. (It's like they were trying to keep most of the fanboy stuff as a surprise, but in the process hurt their marketing of the movie.)

I still think that Iron Man will likely hold off Speed Racer this weekend, but maybe Speed Racer's a more entertaining movie than it's being given credit for thus far.

Having said that I'll probably wait for the Blu Ray...
Old 05-07-08, 09:17 AM
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I don't think so. Iron Man is getting great reviews, so the dropoff won't be much.

Speed Racer looks terrible. And is the original cartoon so well-remembered across the board to ensure a big opening?
Old 05-07-08, 09:28 AM
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Sigh.

I mentioned in last week's box office thread.

Iron Man will hold the number one spot with $46-48 million whereas Speed Racer will be in second with $32-34 million.

It's upsetting as I've heard nothing but positive about Speed Racer from the folks who I know who have caught it early. Too bad Warner didn't know what the hell to do with it as the tracking numbers are borderline awful. However, to be honest, I don't think the mainstream public is ready for a live-action anime.

I'll be there tomorrow night in IMAX as:

1) I actually enjoyed The Matrix sequels (Revolutions was the better of the two).
2) I enjoyed the cartoon when I was younger.
3) Cameo appearance by Ben fuckin' Miles.
Old 05-07-08, 10:17 AM
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Yeah I hear Speed Racer is pretty damn entertaining.

Originally Posted by superdeluxe
Mixed? Its gotten a A- user rating at Yahoo (9500 ratings), its got a 8.4 out of 10, with about 25,000 votes at IMDB (and #99 ranking)
Internet community isn't a particularly strong representation of the masses at large. Shocking, I know. Boondock Saints has a 7.8 on imdb with 55,000 reviews, and a B+ on Yahoo with 9600 votes - and that movie is a giant pile of shite.
Old 05-07-08, 10:23 AM
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i saw Speed Racer. Its not very good. You can't really spoil the story because you know the climax is a race and you know who's going to win.

My biggest question is where the fuck did Trixie get a helicopter from midway through the movie.
Old 05-07-08, 10:33 AM
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No way. Iron Man will still manage $50 million, which will be more than enough for the top spot. I wouldn't be surprised if Speed Racer finishes 3rd, behind What Happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas. Nobody is excited about Speed Racer. It will be this year's Summer Bomb.

Next week, Prince Caspian arrives and will squash the remaining life out of SR. It'll be lucky to finish with $75 million. Thankfully, WB has The Dark Knight to fall back on.

The movie is 135 minutes long. That's alot of racing time.
Old 05-07-08, 10:54 AM
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135 minutes for Speed Racer? That's honestly at least 30 minutes too long. It's longer than V for Vendetta. Give me a break.

I think if Keanu and Vince Vaughn had been in Speed Racer, it would've done a lot better. WB is doing promotions, but who cares that John Goodman is in a movie?
Old 05-07-08, 10:58 AM
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I think that even most of those of you saying no are giving Speed Racer too much credit.

I think it's going to be the biggest dud of the year. It won’t quite be as low or as badly received as, say, Thunderbirds, but it'll be a huge disappointment. I'll be shocked, truly shocked, if I'm wrong on this.

Iron Man will still be #1, and it'll likely make twice as much as what Speed Race brings in, if not even more than that. I'm not even convinced that Speed Racer will be #2. It will be lucky to be able to even reach that high.
Old 05-07-08, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by The Bus
135 minutes for Speed Racer? That's honestly at least 30 minutes too long. It's longer than V for Vendetta. Give me a break.

I think if Keanu and Vince Vaughn had been in Speed Racer, it would've done a lot better. WB is doing promotions, but who cares that John Goodman is in a movie?
The runtime is insane. This is a movie based off of a cheesy 60s cartoon. Not a whole lot of substance there. This should have been 90 minutes tops.
Old 05-07-08, 01:46 PM
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Holy crap, 135 min?? That just checked it off my list, or at best I'll randomly catch it on a boring day. No way I can drag people that already don't want to see it if it runs that long.
Old 05-07-08, 01:47 PM
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135 minutes long? haha, ADD, FTW.
Old 05-07-08, 01:49 PM
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Nope, word of mouth will keep Iron Man in the top spot.
Old 05-07-08, 01:52 PM
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I don't think the word of mouth on Iron Man really matters. Very few movies really hang around these days (except family films), and I don't think Iron Man will be different. Narnia and Indiana Jones will push it to the background. Even if it does "have legs", that's more for Weeks 5 and 6, not so important in Week 2.

Still, I can't see Speed Racer beating it. Even with a 50-60% drop, Iron Man takes in $40 million minimum. And I don't see Speed Racer doing those numbers.
Old 05-07-08, 02:04 PM
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WOM matters most in the second week, imho, as it's what carried movies like Wedding Crashers to huge success (extremely small drop in the second weekend, when the drop hurts the most.)
Old 05-07-08, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by RichC2
WOM matters most in the second week, imho, as it's what carried movies like Wedding Crashers to huge success (extremely small drop in the second weekend, when the drop hurts the most.)
well, something that opens as big as Iron Man will have a decent-sized drop in the second weekend.
Old 05-07-08, 02:20 PM
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Those nostalgic for Speed Racer will be turned off by the awful trailer. Kids have little or no idea who or what SR is. It's doomed for medicority, if it's that lucky. Iron Man will beat SR by $10-15 million.

Last edited by Burgundy LaRue; 05-07-08 at 02:40 PM.
Old 05-07-08, 02:33 PM
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Is it me, or does it seem like every big movie released in the second week of May flops? Well, the only example I can think of is Poseidon. Kingdom of Heaven may have been in the same boat, I can't remember when that came out exactly.
Old 05-07-08, 02:42 PM
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Van Helsing quickly ran out of steam.
Old 05-07-08, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by hapgilmore
Is it me, or does it seem like every big movie released in the second week of May flops? Well, the only example I can think of is Poseidon. Kingdom of Heaven may have been in the same boat, I can't remember when that came out exactly.
It does sort of seem that way. Poseidon followed MI3 with an opening around $20 million. Kingdom of Heaven kicked off the Summer in '05 with only $19 million.

Battefield Earth followed Gladiator with only $11 million opening. Although that would've tanked in any month.

Looking back, there's not been many 1-2 punches in May. Van Helsing ($51 million) and Troy ($46 million) were back to back big openers. That's about it in recent years. Nothing big followed Spiderman 1 or 3, and rightly so. There was no big follow up to The Mummy Returns 2nd weekend either.
Old 05-07-08, 03:42 PM
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X-Men 3 came out at the end of May. Then there were the Star Wars prequels.

Although, I think those were the end of May.
Old 05-07-08, 03:50 PM
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The question is, If Iron Man does have a huge drop next week will people say that the movie is not a huge success? I mean The movie already made over half what was expected. (at least what I expected $400 Billion world wide)
Old 05-07-08, 03:51 PM
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I dunno.. reviews are pretty bad, too (granted there are only 19 total, but still 12 of them are "rotten")

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/speed_racer/
Old 05-07-08, 03:54 PM
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Not to mention that it's sitting at 0% for the CotC rating (again, not many reviews there yet, but still).
Old 05-07-08, 03:57 PM
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But it has a monkey in it. How can it go wrong?
Old 05-07-08, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by mcfly
I dunno.. reviews are pretty bad, too (granted there are only 19 total, but still 12 of them are "rotten")

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/speed_racer/
wow, not a single reviewer worth reading.

*Edit* who gave it a negative review.

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