Daytripper

From Fantasy Moguls:

Meet the Spartans (Fox) has apparently won the day Friday with an estimated $6.5M compared to Rambo's opening day of $6M, but my projection is that the Lionsgate Stallone sequel will play a bit stronger with Males 25 Plus on this football-free Saturday and Sunday. My projection is that the poorly reviewed Rambo will manage to win the 3-day with about $17.4M compared to $17.1M or so for Spartans.

Cloverfield (Paramount) has absolutely "fallen apart" in its 2nd weekend. It managed only $4.5M on Friday, and it'll lumber to a disappointing $13.1M for the weekend. That would be a horrifying 68% drop, and it'll be in a 3-day photo finish with 27 Dresses (Fox), which appears to be headed for $13M after a $4M Friday.

Sony's Untraceable has performed slightly above industry expectations with an estimated $3.5M on its opening day. While skewing strongly toward older females, this techno-thriller should capture $10.5M by Monday morning. Meanwhile, How She Move (Paramount Vantage) is a disaster with a meager $1M on Friday, and a likely $2.85M on opening weekend.

On the PTA front, IFC Films' 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, which failed to grab a foreign language Oscar nomination, debuted strongly at 2 locations on Friday with a $7,000 PTA. Cristian Mungiu's Romanian abortion drama, jilted by the Academy Awards' faulty foreign language film methodology, has a chance to score an impressive $25,000+ weekend PTA.




EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $17.4M - $6,325 PTA - $17.4M cume
2. Meet the Spartans (Fox) - $17.1M - $6,564 PTA - $17.1M cume
3. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $13.1M - $3,841 PTA - $64.6M cume
4. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $13M - $4,229 PTA - $44.7M cume
5. Untraceable (Sony) - $10.5M - $4,434 PTA - $10.5M cume
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $9.4M - $3,877 PTA - $99.2M cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $8.85M - $3,038 PTA - $56.3M cume
8. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $4.68M - $2,176 PTA - $205.4M cume
9. Mad Money (Overture) - $4.14M - $1,676 PTA - $14.8M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $4.08M - $4,613 PTA - $13.9M cume
11. Alvin & the Chipmunks (Fox) - $3.77M - $1,552 PTA - $203.3M cume
12. Atonement (Focus) - $3.55M - $2,542 PTA - $37.5M cume
13. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) - $2.85M - $1,862 PTA - $2.85M cume
14. First Sunday (Sony) - $2.75M - $1,831 PTA - $33.9M cume
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) - $2M - $1,812 PTA - $51.5M cume
16. I Am Legend (Warner Bros) - $1.9M - $1,358 PTA - $251.3M cume
*4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) - $51,100 - $25,550 PTA - $51,100 cume

Mr. Cinema

I loved Cloverfield. That's a steep drop, but with a $25 million budget, I'm sure Paramount is quite happy. I don't understand anyone paying to watch Meet the Spartans. That trailer was horrendous. It might have been even less funny than First Sunday's trailer.

There Will Be Blood is what people should be spending their money on.

Brack

I'm a bit surprised by the Cloverfield numbers. Too many people not liking a shaky camera I'm afraid. Makes me laugh.

B5Erik

I'm going to see Cloverfield tomorrow...

RichC2

the Teeny Boppers don't like Cloverfield so it was destined to fall apart. That said, it was front loaded last Friday, a steep drop is generally expected Friday-to-Friday, it should level out a bit today and tomorrow. Shame, though, it was an amazing movie.

mdc3000

Well, considering my local theatre not only had motion sickness signs but had cashiers warning people AGAINST going to see Cloverfield at all (I commented to them that this was NOT COOL and if I were paramount and heard of this, I'd be pissed off) and word of mouth has been heavily mixed, the drop makes sense. I don't think the drop is a 'disaster' at all because of the low cost of the flick and heavily increased competition this weekend.

I hope Rambo can fend off the spartans, but I have to wonder how many kids buy tickets to Spartans and sneak into Rambo.

maingon

i agree and CNN kept saying this movie is gonna make you sick. and making a big deal of the camera work. Which didn't bug me at all. They were even advising people on CNN that this is one you might want to wait till DVD because the Smaller screen is gonna get you less motion sickness.



in fact I don't think it wold make most people motion sickness. Too bad people miss out, Cloverfiled was awesome.

but it shows that the American public have no taste in movies when the constantly go to these AWFUL spoof movies. They always end up #1 when the trailers and ADs look awful.

Who sees Meet the Spartans and says that looks Hilarius, lets go opening weekend.

RichC2

I heard a lot of "We should see that" comments during the trailer for Meet The Spartans last year. I thought it was one of the most cringe inducing things I'd seen. Plus it's been advertised almost 24/7 on Comedy Central.

Simpson Purist

The question is, will Cloverfield be able to reach the $100 million mark?

Also, is there a soul on Earth that predicted $200 million for Alvin and the Chipmunks?

ruk

how much did rambo cost to make?

chris_sc77

I predicted Cloverfield to drop at lease 65% so no real surprise there at all. I doubt it'll make more than $12 million when actual numbers are released for the weekend.....I was hoping There Will Be Blood would do better. Hopefully it'll be able do have a nice bump in numbers today and be able to make it to $5 million for the weekend. And anyone who paid to see Meet the Spartans needs to have their movie watcher license taking away .

chris_sc77

Dude....I guarantee it'll drop at least 65%

RichC2

I misread the totals on another site (which said Friday's drop was about 69%) which is why I removed my comment, thanks for the 3 second reply though, I think. Okay maybe not.

If Friday's drop was 69%, it'd end up with a 60% - 65% drop for the weekend more likely than not. Another site said 75% which would be hard to cover for. Regardless though, it's a shame seeing a relatively unique, entertaining flick go down in flames while people flock to see trite like Meet the Spartans.

islandclaws

There is no hope for this world if Spartans beats Rambo for the #1 spot. Rambo is a fucking godsend from baby Jesus himself and everyone needs to see it.

No surprise on Cloverfield. Every dumb fuck that saw it last weekend complained about how much it sucked because they were far too stupid to "get" the concept of the film, probably turning off many potential viewers. As for the motion sickness aspect, where were all these complaints when Blair Witch came out? That still did major box office numbers. Oh well, it's more than made back it's budget so I can only hope that proposed sequel gets the green light.

chris_sc77

It is possible that people did "get" it and just didn't like what they "got". Maybe they wanted more for their money than a 73 minute movie that was shot on shaky looking video.

Matthew Chmiel

Meet the Spartans going to recoup it's budget opening weekend?
Rambo getting it's ass kicked by some of the biggest hacks in Hollywood?
Cloverfield taking a near 70% drop?

I fuckin' hate the American public.

majorjoe23

The Friday to Friday drop for Cloverfield is going to be especially big, since it was so frontloaded last week. I imagine the Saturday to Saturday will be a bit more normal.

I've been offering to kick people in the nuts for $10, which seems like a better deal than paying $10 for Meet the Spartans.

Deftones

Do you honestly think people look at the length of a movie and factor that into their decision to see it? Really? Do you? Please say yes, so we can all point and laugh. The only time I think length hurts a movie is the other way, not in reverse.

bhk

Why take it so personally?

Matthew Chmiel

I'm not taking it personally. Just saying how much I hate the American public.

chris_sc77

I doubt the general public does but I know I certainly do. I do think they might've felt ripped off when the movie was over and they said "That's IT!!! I paid How much for this when their are better films lasting twice as long out there!". I know I have felt this way many times when a big hyped movie that was supposed to be pure entertainment came out and was extremely short. Examples include: Jurassic Park 3, both MIB movies, X-Men 3, Rush Hour 2/3 etc......
ALSO I know when I see a movie the longer it seems to be the more chances are I will enjoy it. Yes some long movies I hate (Pirates 3 anyone) but the majority of my top 10 of 2007 was over 2 hours long. (There Will Be Blood, Zodiac, Stardust, Grindhouse, Southland Tales, Knocked Up, Hot Fuzz, Into The Wild, Rescue Dawn, Across The Universe. The Shortest film IN my top 10 is Sweeney Todd and that lasts 116 minutes. There are many short films I do love but not too many at all as of recent memory. Especially something on the scale of Cloverfield is supposed to be.)

Seantn

Go down in flames? It's gonna make at least 70-85 million in it's theatrical run on a 25 million budget. It'll be fine.

DeanoBKN

I concur. Hope is lost.

MTRodaba2468

I concur. The fact that Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer have careers in Hollywood is proof that the general movie-going American public have no taste.

chris_sc77

Box Office Mojo is now predicting Cloverfield did worse than expected on Friday with only a $4,080,000 day meaning it might not make $12 million this weekend. But like other posters have said this movie is still gonna be rather profitable it just wont have any legs at all in U.S. theaters. 27 Dresses is holding up very strongly and should only have a 40%-45% drop and should finish up higher than Cloverfield this weekend. It also looks like Juno will cross the $100 million mark by the end of this week.