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2007 OSCAR TALK - news, discussion, speculation

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2007 OSCAR TALK - news, discussion, speculation

Old 02-19-08, 06:41 PM
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Old 02-19-08, 06:56 PM
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^^^ those are hilarious.
Old 02-19-08, 07:59 PM
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I love this one:

Old 02-20-08, 12:49 AM
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^Hilarious....as the wit of the dialogue moves all focus away from the fact that this is a 16 year old expecting a child! Loved the movie, Ellen Page and Jennifer Gartner...the very first role that I actually appreciated her acting.


I'll check out the rest of the post cards!
Old 02-20-08, 01:59 AM
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Today, the Costume Designers Guild went for "Sweeny Todd" (Period), "The Golden Compass" (Fantasy) and "Blades of Glory" (Contemporary).

And with that, it's all over. The ballots have been handed in, the guilds and critics have spoken, any buzz between now and the Oscars is not going to affect the winners. If we go by the form books, the winners should be as follows (I've included my final predictions too):

Best Picture - No Country For Old Men (NBR, BSFC, WDCFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, SA, BFCA, LFCC, GG*, AFI**, DFWFCA, SFC, AWFJ, PFCS, SDFC, AFCA***, TFCA, LVFCS, DFCS, SAG, FFCC, UFCA, SLGFC, OFCC, OFCS, HFCS, ASC*, DGA, WGA, ACE*, COFC, PGA, BAFTA*, IFCA)

2. There Will Be Blood
3. Juno
4. Atonement
5. Michael Clayton

What Will Win: No Country For Old Men
What Should Win: There Will Be Blood
What Might Upset: Michael Clayton


Achievement in Directing - Joel & Ethan Coen, “No Country For Old Men” (BSFC***, WDCFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, SFFC, SA, BFCA, GG*, DFWFCA, SFC, AWFJ, PFCS, TFCA, LVFCS, DFCS, FFCC, UFCA, SLGFC, OFCC, OFCS, NSFC***, DGA, COFC, BAFTA, IFCA)

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood”
3. Julian Schnabel, “The Diving Bell And The Butterfly”
4. Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”
5. Jason Reitman, “Juno”

Who Will Win: Joel & Ethan Coen, "No Country For Old Men"
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Who Might Upset: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"


Best Actor - Daniel Day Lewis, “There Will Be Blood” (BSFC***, NYFCO, LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, BFCA, LFCC, GG, WFCC, DFWFCA, SFC, AWFJ, PFCS, SDFC, AFCA, LVFCS, SAG, FFCC, UFCA, SLGFC, OFCS, HFCS, NSFC, KCFC, COFC, BAFTA)

2. George Clooney, “Michael Clayton”
3. Viggo Mortensen, “Eastern Promises”
4. Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd: ...”
5. Tommy Lee Jones, “In The Valley Of Elah”

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Who Might Upset: Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd"


Best Actress - Julie Christie, “Away From Her” (NBR, BSFC***, NYFCO, WDCFCA, NYFCC, SFFC, BFCA, GG, DFWFCA, SFC, AWFJ, PFCS, SDFC, TFCA**, SAG, OFCS, HFCS, NSFC, BAFTA*, IFCA)

2. Ellen Page, “Juno”
3. Marion Cottilard, “La Vie En Rose”
4. Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
5. Laura Linney, “The Savages”

Who Will Win: Marion Cottilard, "La Vie En Rose"
Who Should Win: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Who Might Upset: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"


Best Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem, “No Country For Old Men” (BSFC, NYFCO, WDCFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, BFCA, GG, DFWFCA, SFC, PFCS, AFCA, TFCA, DFCS, SAG, FFCC, UFCA, LVFCS, OFCC, OFCS, HFCS, NSFC***, KCFC, COFC, BAFTA, IFCA)

2. Casey Affleck, “The Assassination of Jesse James ...”
3. Tom Wilkinson, “Michael Clayton”
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Charlie Wilson’s War”
5. Hal Holbrook, “Into The Wild”

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men"
Who Should Win: Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men"
Who Might Upset: Hal Holbrook, "Into The Wild"


Supporting Actress - Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone” (NBR, BSFC, LAFCA**, WDCFCA**, NYFCC, SFFC, SA, BFCA, GG*, DFWFCA***, SFC, AWFJ, PFCS, SDFC, TFCA***, SAG*, FFCC, UFCA, SLGFC, OFCC, OFCS, HFCS, IFCA)

2. Cate Blanchett, “I’m Not There”
3. Tilda Swinton, “Michael Clayton”
4. Ruby Dee, “American Gangster”
5. Saoirse Ronan, “Atonement”

Who Will Win: Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Who Might Upset: Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"


Achievement in Writing (Adapted Screenplay) - Joel & Ethan Coen, “No Country For Old Men” (NBR, NYFCC, CFCA, SA*, BFCA*, GG, SFC, DFWFCA***, PFCS, AFCA, TFCA, UFCA, SLGFC***, OFCS, USC, KCFC, WGA, COFC, BAFTA*)

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood”
3. Ronald Harwood, “The Diving Bell And The Butterfly”
4. Christopher Hampton, “Atonement”
5. Sarah Polley, “Away From Her”

Who Will Win: Joel & Ethan Coen, “No Country For Old Men”
Who Should Win: Joel & Ethan Coen, “No Country For Old Men”
Who Might Upset: Ronald Harwood, “The Diving Bell And The Butterfly”


Achievement in Writing (Original Screenplay) - Diablo Cody, “Juno” (NBR**, WDCFCA, CFCA, SA, BFCA, GG*, WFCC, DFWFCA, SFC, AWFJ, PFCS, SDFC, AFCA, TFCA***, FFCC, UFCA***, LVFCS, SLGFC, OFCS, HFCS, KCFC, WGA, COFC, BAFTA*)

2. Tamara Jenkins, “The Savages”
3. Brad Bird, “Ratatouille”
3. Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”
5. Nancy Oliver, “Lars And The Real Girl”

Who Will Win: Diablo Cody, “Juno”
Who Should Win: Brad Bird, “Ratatouille”
Who Might Upset: Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”


Best Animated Feature - Ratatouille (AA, NBR, LAFCA**, WDCFCA, CFCA, SA, BFCA, GG, DFWFCA, SFC, PFCS, SDFC, AFCA, TFCA, FFCC, UFCA, LVFCS, SLGFC, OFCC, OFCS, HFCS, KCFC, COFC, PGA, BAFTA, IFCA)

2. Persepolis
3. Surf’s Up

What Will Win: Ratatouille
What Should Win: Ratatouille
What Might Upset: Persepolis


Best Documentary Feature - Sicko (NYFCO, LAFCA***, GA, CFCA, IDA*, SA, BFCA, SFC***, DFWFCA, PFCS, AAFC, LVFCS, SLGFC, NSFC***, WGA*, PGA)

2. No End In Sight
3. Taxi To The Dark Side
4. Operating Homecoming: ...
5. War/Dance

What Will Win: No End In Sight
What Might Upset: Sicko


Achievement in Music (Original Score) - Dario Marianelli, “Atonement” (BFCA*, GG, PFCS, HFCS, COFC***, BAFTA*, IFMCA)

2. Alberto Iglesias, “The Kite Runner”
3. Michael Giacchino, “Ratatouille”
4. James Newton Howard, “Michael Clayton”
4. Marco Beltrami, “3:10 To Yuma”

Who Will Win: Dario Marianelli, “Atonement”
Who Should Win: Michael Giacchino, “Ratatouille”
Who Might Upset: Michael Giacchino, “Ratatouille”


Achievement in Music (Original Song) - Once, “Falling Slowly” (BFCA, PFCS, FFCC**, HFCS)

2. Enchanted, “That’s How You Know”
3. Enchanted, “So Close”
3. Enchanted, “Happy Working Song”
3. August Rush, “Raise It Up”

What Will Win: Once, “Falling Slowly”
What Should Win: Once, “Falling Slowly”
What Might Upset: Enchanted, “That’s How You Know”


Achievement in Film Editing - Christopher Rouse, “The Bourne Ultimatum” (LVFCS, ACE, BAFTA)

2. Joel & Ethan Coen, “No Country For Old Men”
3. Juliette Welfing, “The Diving Bell And The Butterfly”
4. Jay Cassidy, “Into The Wild”
4. Dylan Tichenor, “There Will Be Blood”

Who Will Win: Christopher Rouse, “The Bourne Ultimatum”
Who Should Win: Joel & Ethan Coen, “No Country For Old Men”
Who Might Upset: Dylan Tichenor, “There Will Be Blood”


Achievement in Sound Mixing - The Bourne Ultimatum (SA, CAS*, BAFTA)

2. No Country For Old Men
3. Ratatouille
3. Transformers
3. 3:10 To Yuma

What Will Win: No Country For Old Men
What Should Win: No Country For Old Men
What Might Upset: The Bourne Ultimatum


Achievement in Sound Editing - The Bourne Ultimatum (SA, BAFTA, MPSE*)

2. No Country For Old Men
3. Ratatouille
3. Transformers
3. There Will Be Blood

What Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
What Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
What Might Upset: Transformers


Achievement in Visual Effects - Transformers (LVFCS, VES)

2. The Golden Compass
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

What Will Win: Transformers
What Might Upset: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End


Achievement in Cinematography - Robert Elswit, “There Will Be Blood” (NYFCO, LAFCA***, NYFCC, AFCA, LVFCS, NSFC, ASC, BAFTA*)

2. Roger Deakins, “No Country For Old Men”
3. Roger Deakins, “The Assassination of Jesse James ...”
4. Janusz Kaminski, “The Diving Bell And The Butterfly”
5. Seamus McGarvey, “Atonement”

Who Will Win: Robert Elswit, “There Will Be Blood”
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins, “No Country For Old Men”
Who Might Upset: Roger Deakins, “The Assassination of Jesse James ...”


Achievement in Art Direction - Dante Ferretti, “Sweeney Todd:...” (WDCFCA, LAFCA***, PFCS, SDFC, ADG*)

2. Jack Fisk, “There Will Be Blood”
3. Sarah Greenwood, “Atonement”
4. Dennis Gassner, “The Golden Compass”
5. Arthur Max, “American Gangster”

Who Will Win: Jack Fisk, “There Will Be Blood”
Who Should Win: Jack Fisk, “There Will Be Blood”
Who Might Upset: Dante Ferretti, “Sweeney Todd:...”


Achievement in Costume Design - Colleen Atwood, “Sweeney Todd:...” (PFCS, LVFCS, BAFTA*, CDG)

2. Marit Allen, “La Vie En Rose”
3. Alexandra Byrne, “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
4. Jacqueline Durran, “Atonement”
5. Albert Wolsky, “Across The Universe”

Who Will Win: Colleen Atwood, “Sweeney Todd:...”
Who Should Win: Colleen Atwood, “Sweeney Todd:...”
Who Might Upset: Jacqueline Durran, “Atonement”


Achievement in Makeup - La Vie En Rose (BAFTA)

2. Norbit
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

What Will Win: La Vie En Rose
What Might Upset: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End


NB: * denotes a nomination, ** denotes a tied win, *** denotes a runner-up.

Groups Recognised: AA = Annie Awards, AAFC = African-American Film Critics, ACE = American Cinema Editors, ADG = Art Director’s Guild, AFCA = Austin Film Critics Association, AFI = American Film Institute, ASC = American Society of Cinematographers, AWFJ = Alliance of Women Film Journalists, BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television, BFCA = Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice), BIFA = British Independent Film Awards, BSFC = Boston Society of Film Critics, CAS = Cinema Audio Society, COFC = Central Ohio Film Critics, CFCA = Chicago Film Critics Association, DFCS = Detroit Film Critics Society, DFWFCA = Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association, DGA = Director’s Guild of America, FFCC = Florida Film Critics Circle, GA = Gotham Awards, GG = Golden Globes (Hollywood Foreign Press Association), HFCS = Houston Film Critics Society, IDA = International Documentary Association, IFCA = Iowa Film Critics Association, IFMCA = International Film Music Critics Association, ISA = Independent Spirit Awards, KCFC = Kansas City Film Critics, LAFCA = Los Angeles Film Critics Association, LFCC = London Film Critics Circle, LVFCS = Las Vegas Film Critics Society, NBR = National Board of Review, NSFC = National Society of Film Critics, NYFCC = New York Film Critics Circle, NYFCO = New York Film Critics Online, OFCC = Oklahoma Film Critics Circle, OFCS = Online Film Critics Society, PFCS = Phoenix Film Critics Society, PGA = Producer’s Guild of America, SA = Satellite Awards, SAG = Screen Actors Guild, SDFC = San Deigo Film Critics, SFC = Southeastern Film Critics, SFFC = San Fransisco Film Critics, SLGFC = St. Louis Gateway Film Critics, TFCA = Toronto Film Critics Association, UFCA = Utah Film Critics Association, USC = University of Southern California Libraries Scripter Award, VES = Visual Effects Society, WDCFCA = Washington D.C. Film Critics Association, WFCC = Women Film Critics Circle, WGA = Writer’s Guild of America

Last edited by hardercore; 02-24-08 at 03:45 AM.
Old 02-20-08, 03:32 AM
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This is the way I see it-
Best Picture-
Will Win: No Country for Old Men or There Will be Blood
Should Win: There Will be Blood
Upset: Michael Clayton
Blood will overtake No Country. Why? Because the Coens are up for 4 sets of awards, Direction is their lock, and I have a feeling that they are going to get the award for best screenplay. So this means that they will pass the the best picture oscar to Blood or Clayton for the upset.

Direction-
Will Win: Coen Brothers
Should Win: Coen Brothers
Upset: Julian Schnabel
They should have won years ago for Fargo, and there is no one I think that can beat the Coen's. There could be some heat from Schnabel, but with no best picture nom for his film, I think it's out of the question.

Actor-
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Upset: George Clooney
Lewis is the lock. Depp has no heat really for Todd, my thinking is if there is an upset it will be Clooney.

Actress-
Will Win: Julie Christie
Should Win: Ellen Page
Upset: Marion Cottilard
Chirstie is the lock, unless Cottilard comes in for the upset.

Suporting Actor-
Will Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Javier Bardem
Upset: Hal Holbrook
I have a feeling that the big shocker of the night over if Country loses best picture will be Holbrook winning Suporting Actor.

Suporting Actress-
Will Win: Amy Ryan
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Upset: Tilda Swinton
I think that Ryan is still the lock, but I'm hearing that Swinton could be coming in for the kill, unless Blanchett gains some heat.

Writing Adapted Screenplay-
Will Win: Coen Brothers
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Upset: Ronald Harwood
Coen's are getting best director, so I'm thinking that Anderson will get the Writing award. If the Coen's get this award over Anderson, then Blood will win best picture.

Writing Original Screenplay-
Will Win: Diablo Cody
Should Win: Diablo Cody
Upset: Tony Gilroy
If they feel bad that there not going to give Gilroy the best director award, they may give him this award thinking it's also too soon to give Cody one.
Old 02-23-08, 07:18 PM
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I'm struggling with Cinematography...Deakins' efforts may cancel each other out (Jesse James & No Country). Leaning towards There Will Be Blood.
Old 02-24-08, 04:02 AM
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Oscar nominees that won their equivalent Independent Spirit Awards tonight (good thing for actors and directors, but traditionally a bad sign for the best picture and screenplay winners to repeat victories on Oscar night):

Best Picture Juno
Best Director Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Actress Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Supporting Actress Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Best Screenplay Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"
Best First Screenplay Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Best Cinematography Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

The love for "Diving Bell" is reall great here as it's probably a film that will be overlooked tomorrow night. I was really hoping it would upset "Juno" for Best Picture, but hopefully this means that "Juno" follows in the footsteps of "Lost In Translation", "Sideways", "Brokeback Mountain", and "Little Miss Sunshine" to falter on the big night as a result of the Indie Spirit win.

Last edited by hardercore; 02-24-08 at 01:42 PM.
Old 02-24-08, 07:00 AM
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Originally Posted by hardercore
Best Actress Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Supporting Actress Ellen Page, "Juno"
Wow, she really cleaned up!
Old 02-24-08, 07:11 AM
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Supporting Female was actually won by Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There.
Old 02-24-08, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted by hardercore
Oscar nominees that won their equivalent Independent Spirit Awards tonight (good thing for actors and directors, but traditionally a bad sign for the best picture and screenplay winners to repeat victories on Oscar night):

Best Picture Juno
Best Director Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Actress Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Supporting Actress Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Screenplay Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"
Best First Screenplay Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Best Cinematography Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

The love for "Diving Bell" is reall great here as it's probably a film that will be overlooked tomorrow night. I was really hoping it would upset "Juno" for Best Picture, but hopefully this means that "Juno" follows in the footsteps of "Lost In Translation", "Sideways", "Brokeback Mountain", and "Little Miss Sunshine" to falter on the big night as a result of the Indie Spirit win.
The Independent Spirit awards have become really predictable and disappointing. They're basically the "give it to the one Oscar nominee in the group" awards.
Old 02-24-08, 10:48 AM
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^I agree I only saw the last 5 minutes. it looked like a horrible show though.
WHo was the host BTW? I would have definitely watched this if Sarah Silverman hosted but I guess she didn't this year. oh well.
Old 02-24-08, 11:55 AM
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Here are my Oscar predictions, along with my picks of runners up (second-most likely to win if my first choice doesn't). I made a few bold choices, which sometimes pays off and sometimes doesn't. I also listed who/what I'd vote for if I was an Academy member (notice I'm not using the phrase "Should Win" because that always makes me feel like a know-it-all ass):

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Runner Up: Michael Clayton
My Vote: No Country for Old Men

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Runner Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
My Vote: Joel & Ethan Coen

Trivia: This will be the first time in history that the Best Director award has gone to more than one person in the same year.

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Runner Up: George Clooney, Michael Clayton
My Vote: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah (and for No Country for Old Men - my 2 favorite performances of the year)...or maybe Daniel Day-Lewis

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Runner Up: Julie Christie, Away from Her
My Vote: Marion Cotillard

Trivia: If Cotillard wins, it will be the second lead actress win for a foreign-language performance in history (the first was Sophia Loren for Two Women). If Julie Christie wins, she will hold the record for longest stretch of time between wins (she won Best Actress for Darling in 1965). If Ellen Page wins, she will be the youngest lead actress winner in history.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Runner Up: All of them/none of them
My Vote: Javier Bardem

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Runner Up: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
My Vote: Tilda Swinton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Runner Up: No Country for Old Men
My Vote: Away from Her

Classic "spread the wealth" consolation prize for PT Anderson.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Juno
Runner Up: Michael Clayton
My Vote: Michael Clayton

An upset here would be most welcome, and is probably more likely than most people think.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Ratatouille
Runner Up: Persepolis
My Vote: Ratatouille

BEST ART DIRECTION
Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Runner Up: Sweeney Todd
My Vote: There Will Be Blood

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Atonement
Runner Up: All of them - any of the 5 could easily take this. Ok, the closest are The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and No Country for Old Men.
My Vote: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

I have wavered back and forth on this one, and then last night I remembered that they always go for the prettiest looking movie here. Add in that much-hyped 5-minute tracking shot, and I think Atonement is going to come out on top.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Atonement
Runner Up: Sweeney Todd
My Vote: Atonement

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: No End in Sight
Runner Up: Sicko
My Vote: N/A - haven't seen any of them yet.

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Runner Up: No Country for Old Men
My Vote: No Country for Old Men

I have a sneaking suspicion that fans of Into the Wild and those who feel it was unfairly left out of the big categories could vote for it here since this is the only real chance to reward it, but probably not enough to put it over the top.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: The Counterfeiters
Runner Up: Katyn
My Vote: N/A - haven't seen any of them yet.

The Counterfeiters is a story about the Holocaust. Any questions? Didn't think so.

BEST MAKEUP
Will Win: La Vie en Rose
Runner Up: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
My Vote: La Vie en Rose

The makeup work in La Vie en Rose is astonishing, and it would be a real shame if it didn't win this.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Atonement
Runner Up: Ratatouille
My Vote: Not sure

Clackety-clack, clackety-clack. Atonement is the one that voters will actually be able to recall after seeing the movie, so that's the one they'll check off.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: "Falling Slowly", Once
Runner Up: "Happy Working Song", Enchanted
My Vote: "Falling Slowly"

If "Falling Slowly" doesn't win, expect rioting from legions of people with good taste. And by "rioting" I of course mean lots of angry Internet posts. It's the best, and most integral, song from a movie in years.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Runner Up: No Country for Old Men
My Vote: No Country for Old Men

I may very well be wrong, but I think the many people predicting Transformers here and in Sound Mixing because it's the loudest are under-thinking things. It's the kind of movie the Academy only votes for if it absolutely has to (which it does in the Visual Effects category), and if they have a classier alternative they usually go with that, regardless of merit in the particular category. There are plenty of classier alternatives here, and Bourne has the advantage of fitting the bill of both "classy" and "loud."

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Runner Up: No Country for Old Men
My Vote: No Country for Old Men

See above.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Transformers
Runner Up: None
My Vote: Transformers

Flawless work and a well-deserved win.
Old 02-24-08, 11:59 AM
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anyone else picking Ellen Page for the win tonight? i really want her as my dark horse and think Marion Cotillard & Julie Christie might just cancel each other out.
Old 02-24-08, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by scott1598
anyone else picking Ellen Page for the win tonight? i really want her as my dark horse and think Marion Cotillard & Julie Christie might just cancel each other out.
Old 02-24-08, 12:36 PM
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Ebert & Roeper (with Michael Phillips filling in for Ebert) has the annual "If We Picked The Winners" of the Oscars online only this year:

E&R If We Picked The Winners (of the Oscars)

And, BTW, Michael Phillips dismissing No Country For Old Men as a glorified "serial killer movie" is by far the dumbest comment I've heard yet from a professional critic on that movie. Talk about completely missing the point of the movie! (But at least its absence from his 2007 Top-10 list is finally explained.)
Old 02-24-08, 12:46 PM
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My guesses as to who will and who should win:

Best Picture
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men

Best Director
Will win: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Should win: Julian Schnable, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Best Actress
Will win: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Should win: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Javier Barden, No Country for Old Men
Should win: Javier Barden, No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Should win: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Best Foreign Film
Will win: Counterfeiters (Austria)
Should win: Counterfeiters (Austria)

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Diablo Cody, Juno
Should win: Brad Bird, Ratatouille

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Should win: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

Best Animated Feature Film
Will win: Ratatouille
Should win: Ratatouille

Best Art Direction
Will win: Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Should win: Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Cinematography
Will win: There Will Be Blood
Should win: There Will Be Blood

Best Makeup
Will win: La Vie en Rose
Should win: La Vie en Rose

Best Costume Design
Will win: Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Should win: Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Original Score
Will win: Atonement
Should win: Atonement

Best Original Song
Will win: Falling Slowly - Once
Should win: Falling Slowly - Once

Best Animated Short Film
Will win: I met the Walrus
Should win: I met the Walrus

Best Live Action Short
Will win: Tanghi Argentini
Should win: Tanghi Argentini

Best Film Editing
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: No Country for Old Men

Best Sound Editing
Will win: Transformers
Should win: Transformers

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Transformers
Should win: Transformers

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Transformers
Should win: Transformers

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will win: Freeheld
Should win: Freeheld

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: No End in Sight
Should win: No End in Sight
Old 02-24-08, 12:50 PM
  #468  
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Originally Posted by scott1598
anyone else picking Ellen Page for the win tonight? i really want her as my dark horse and think Marion Cotillard & Julie Christie might just cancel each other out.
I chose Christie, but if there's one big surprise tonight, I think it would be Page upsetting. She's popping up all over the place lately, and the timing is right. They love Juno. Not enough for it to win Picture, imo, but giving it Actress and Screenplay would be enough of a good gesture. With so many great films this year, I think the gold will be spread around. No Country, There Will Be Blood, Atonement, and possibly Juno or Michael Clayton will receive at least 2 awards. Bourne Ultimatum and Transformers could also receive anywhere from 1-3 awards.
Old 02-24-08, 01:24 PM
  #469  
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MY FINAL PICKS

Best Picture
winner: No Country for Old Men
my choice: There Will Be Blood

I'd say No Country is almost a lock, but it wasn't an accident that There Will Be Blood also received the most nominations. Lots of PT Anderson fans in Hollywood, although he's got a better chance of earning Screenplay. Plus, he'll likely be back in a few years with another BP nominee. The best film of the year doesn't always win Best Picture, and this year will reflect that again.

Best Director
winner: Coen Brothers
my choice: Paul Thomas Anderson

Again, PTA will likely have future nominations. It's too bad he's going up against the dynamic duo. David Fincher impressed me the most though in Zodiac.

Best Actor
winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
my choice: Daniel Day-Lewis

He completely owned and dominated this film with his performance. No one else comes close.

Best Actress
winner: Julie Christie
my choice: n/a

I only saw 1 nominee, Ellen Page.

Best Supporting Actor
winner: Javier Bardem
my choice: Javier Bardem

There are 2 locks tonight. One is Daniel Day-Lewis. This is the other one.

Best Supporting Actress
winner: Tilda Swinton
my choice: Tilda Swinton

Supposedly, this is Michael Clayton's best chance of a victory. I was set with Amy Ryan for the longest time, but decided to make a switch a few days ago. I think Swinton will sneak in. This is clearly the most wide open race with no front-runner. I love Cate Blanchett, and apparently everyone in Hollywood does as well. But she just won for playing a real person a couple years back in The Aviator. Are they going to award her again, 2 years later, for playing a real person? She's going to receive at least 5 more nominations in her career. Plus, who has actually seen I'm Not There? You can also ask, who has seen Gone Baby Gone? Which means Ryan is out. Ruby Dee's 5 minutes in American Gangster was enough for the SAG, it won't be for the Oscars. When your film gets 2 nominations, you don't get an Oscar for 5 minutes of acting. Ronan has no chance.

Best Original Screenplay
winner: Juno
my choice: Michael Clayton

Will someone explain to me why ex-stripper and first-time screenwriter Diablo Cody has always been the frontrunner? What in the heck is so brilliant about her Juno script? I still can't figure out the love for this film. Yeah, it's a commercial hit, that's fine, but why is it an awards hit also? Who in the Academy is going to relate to her fake snappy dialogue? What teenagers talk like that? Awarding Juno Original Screenplay will be almost as embarrassing as nominating Jason Reitman for Director over David Fincher, Sidney Lumet, and several other deserving candidates. I'm praying for a Tony Gilroy upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay
winner: No Country for Old Men
my choice: No Country for Old Men

The consolation prize is usually Screenplay, but not this year. I haven't read anyone picking There Will Be Blood for this category. No Country for Old Men has won the WGA and the Scripter Award. I think that's a fair indication it's going to take the Oscar as well.

Animated Feature
winner: Ratatouille
my choice: n/a

I didn't really like Ratatouille and will plan a bathroom break during this award.

Art Direction
winner: There Will Be Blood
my choice: There Will Be Blood

Cinematography
winner: There Will Be Blood
my choice: There Will Be Blood

Assassination of Jesse James looked pretty. But I was more impressed with the shots from There Will Be Blood. I think Deakins will cancel himself out between JJ and No Country, leaving Robert Elswit as the victor. Elswit also won the ASC award, which places him as the front-runner.

Costumes
winner: Atonement
my choice: n/a

Film Editing
winner: The Bourne Ultimatum
my choice: There Will Be Blood

The most important technical award. I thought it would go to one of the Best Picture nominees, but with Bourne winning the ACE Eddie award, it looks like that will be the winner. If There Will Be Blood wins, I would say expect an upset when Best Picture is announced.

Foreign Language
winner: The Counterfeiters
my choice: n/a

Makeup
winner: La Vie En Rose
my choice: n/a

Original Score
winner: Atonement
my choice: There Will Be Blood...oops, that's right, this one wasn't allowed.

Sound Editing
winner: Transformers
my choice: Transformers

Sound Mixing
winner: Transformers
my choice: Transformers

Okay, for the past 40 years, the winner of the Sound Mixing award has also gone on to win the Sound Editing award, if it was nominated. I think the biggest, loudest film has the best chance this year, and that would be Transformers. Oscar voters aren't known for their expertise in Sound, so they'll go for the big budget film.

Visual Effects
winner: Transformers
my choice: Transformers

no contest.
Old 02-24-08, 01:36 PM
  #470  
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Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema
The best film of the year doesn't always win Best Picture, and this year will reflect that again.
I would wager to say the best film of the year isn't usually even nominated for Best Picture. Last year my favorite was Children of Men but The Departed was easily the best of what was nominated.
Old 02-24-08, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema
Will someone explain to me why ex-stripper and first-time screenwriter Diablo Cody has always been the frontrunner? What in the heck is so brilliant about her Juno script?
She's been campaigning like a woman possessed, for one, but Original Screenplay is usually where comedies or films with "snap, crackle, pop" dialogue get honoured. In Adapted, voters have the source to look back on to see how well done a job was. With Original, they usually just got for the film with the most memorable/funny/quotable dialogue. I don't agree that Juno's dialogue is entirely funny or quotable, but it does stand out as the "loudest", most attention-seeking aspect of that film.
Old 02-24-08, 02:01 PM
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Everyone usually complains after the fact that the Oscars are predictable, and the truth is they are. They should be. We all these precursors awards from the guilds and critics that we should know who is popular. The major categories are pretty easy to read. The minor ones are harder, but tend to follow certain "rules". The shorts (animated, live, documentary) I pretty much always get wrong no matter what. So anyway, on to the picks...

Best Picture
Winner: No Country for Old Men
Comments: there's no overwhelming favorite this year, but this picture is clearly the frontrunner. I'd have a hard time buying an argument where it woud lose. the only other picture in the running would be There will be Blood.

Best Director
Winner: Coen Brothers
Comments: Not much, although the Coens only recently switched "officially" to co-directing and I thought that was worth mentioning.

Best Actor
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Commnets: The Lock of the Night

Best Actress
Winner: Julie Christie
Commnets: Of the major categories, this is the only one outside of supporting actress that is remotely contested. It'd take a decent upset to beat Christie, however and I don't see it.

Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Javier Bardem
Comments: He dominates this categorey

Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Tilda Swinton
Comments: There's an argument for 4 out of the 5 candidates (not Ronan). Dee had nothing to hang her on until SAGs, and will little else I don't see a win. Blanchett is loved, maybe the "next" Hepburn. But despite that status I don't see a win here. It's either Ryan or Swinton

Best Original Screenplay
Winner: Juno
Comments: The "consolation" prize for indy comedies like Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine. Juno fits here

Best Adapted Screenplay
Winner: No Country for Old Men
Comments: That Bandwagon is gaining momentum

Animated Feature
Winner: Ratatouille
Comments: is there really a challenger here?

Art Direction
winner: There Will Be Blood
Comments: A win for a very good film, albeit not a prestige categorey

Cinematography
winner: There Will Be Blood
Comments: See above

Costumes
winner: Atonement
Comments: Elizabeth has awesome costumes, but it'll lose to the more well received film.

Film Editing
Winner: No Country for Old Men
Comments: The Bourne Ultimatum has won a number of awards here, but I'm banking on the momentum of a best picture/director/writing bandwagon picking up at least one or two minor categories.

Foreign Language
Winner: The Counterfeiters
Comments: Seems to be the srong favorite here

Makeup
Winner: La Vie En Rose
Comments: ditto to the above

Original Score
Winner: Atonement
Comments: ditto to the above

Sound Editing
Winner: The Bourne Ultimatum
Comments: It could be Transformers. Or it might even be another No Country bandwagon win. But my bet is on the summer blockbuster, just the one more well liked.

Sound Mixing
Winner: The Bourne Ultimatum
Comments: See above

Visual Effects
Winner: Transformers
Comments: Transformers is meant for this categorey.

Documentary
Winner: No End in Sight
Comments: Could be Sicko. But will Michael Moore win every year he releases a documentary from now on? The Academy might want to move on...

The Shorts (Animated, Live, Documnetary)
Winner: I have no idea, just roll the dice.
Old 02-24-08, 02:03 PM
  #473  
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Originally Posted by scott1598
anyone else picking Ellen Page for the win tonight? i really want her as my dark horse and think Marion Cotillard & Julie Christie might just cancel each other out.

I would pick Laura Linney as my dark horse if Christie or Cotillard don't win. I just don't think the older Academy voters will go for that Juno movie - heck, I'm young and I didn't!
Old 02-24-08, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt
I would wager to say the best film of the year isn't usually even nominated for Best Picture. Last year my favorite was Children of Men but The Departed was easily the best of what was nominated.
A year later, I had problems recalling who won Best Picture in 2007, that's how little impact The Departed made to my long-term cinematic memory. I, too, wanted Children of Men to be nominated in the Best Picture category, but it was not to be.
Old 02-24-08, 02:58 PM
  #475  
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Just out of curiosity...does anyone know any sites that would be streaming the awards tonight? I don't have cable =(

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