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100mil Opening Club

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100mil Opening Club

Old 05-21-07, 02:17 AM
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100mil Opening Club

With the first two massive films of the massive film summer out of the gates I am starting to wonder just how many 100 mil opening weekends we will see this summer...

May alone looks to hold 3, with only Pirates 3 needed to cross the now conservative 100 mil mark.

It seems like only yesterday 100 million in 3 days seemed like a pipe dream, and now I'm putting big money on Harry Potter 7 to cross the 200 mil opening weekend mark in 2010.
Old 05-21-07, 02:28 AM
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I don't know but I am pretty positive that Pirates 3 will break $100 million possibly even the Spider-Man 3 record?
Old 05-21-07, 02:35 AM
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Seems like they're not advertising Pirates 3 on tv at all. I've just started seeing tv spots, about 5 days before it's release. I know, the movie has a built in audience, but the last movie came out 10 months ago and they need to get people excited to see this one.
Old 05-21-07, 08:20 AM
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I think Pirates 3 will certainly break the $100 mil mark, though I don't think it will beat Spidy 3's opening. Maybe Shrek 3.

I would imagine we're going to see the only three 100-mil weekend openers this month. I don't see any other ones with more than 70-80 mil.
Old 05-21-07, 08:46 AM
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I think Pirates 3 is going to do gangbusters business but it's nearly 3 hour running time (ie. less shows per day than shrek, spider-man) is going to make it's haul lower IMO. I am really just hoping that the flick delivers. I think June and July will have some huge hits as well - Ratatouille, Harry Potter etc. that should open pretty huge.
Old 05-21-07, 08:49 AM
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Oops, forgot about Harry Potter. Duh. That's has a damn good shot at $100 mil as well IMO.
Old 05-21-07, 10:18 AM
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I don't think it means as much as it used to, domestic box office receipts seem to be much more front loaded than they used to be, in part because films seem to be marketed differently these days. The idea now seems to be market the hell out of it prior to opening, open it on as many screens as possible, and as many showings a day as you can, before either the reviews catch up to it, ha, or the next big blockbuster comes along. I think the difference in the last few years, is that Hollywood has gotten better at marketing event films, the internet has probably helped.

If you look at the overall domestic box office, while it's doing decent ytd, it has been horrible the last few years, in fact according to this chart, number of tickets sold in the us is the same as 1997!!!!.

http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/

year to date comp(+7%)

http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?vie...asedate&p=.htm

So while first weekend 'records' are being set, overall box office is not even really keeping pace with inflation. Shrek 3 may have been the 'biggest animated movie opening ever!' , but I would wager money that it won't come close to Shrek 2 when the final tallies are in. But that wouldn't make as good of a headline...

The depressing part about this is that Hollywood of course is a cyclical business, and it is run by idiots, so I would guess that the relative early success of Spidey 3 and Shrek 3 is that we will see many more overhyped 'event' sequels greenlit for the next few years until too many of them fail, and they rediscover 'religion'. And that sucks as a moviegoer, because with sequels to blockbusters, quality is rarely at the top of the list, certainly why take too many creative risks, when you have a built in audience? Yeah there are plenty of exceptions to the rule, but if Spidey 4 is any 'better' than 3, it will be an accident more than anything else, imo.
Old 05-21-07, 10:46 AM
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There will be a lot of big earners this summer. But i doubt we will see any $200 million openers anytime soon....if ever m(at least domestic openings). The simple reason behind this is due to lack of number of cinema screens that would be showing a single movie in order to generate that amount of money. There are approx. 5000 cinemas in the US. in order for them all to generate an opening of over $200 mill you would need to have a movie on multiple screens in each cinema and every showing would have to be sold out. Thats not taking into account the varying amounts of prices that different cinemas charge, the number of screens available and also the numer of seats in each screening room. As big as Harry Potter is i doubt it will get those numbers.
Old 05-21-07, 10:56 AM
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Harry Potter will likely have a $100 million weekend. I would have picked Transformers, but since it's opening on a Wednesday, I don't think it'll have a $100 million/3-day opening, but it will for 5 days.

Pirates 3 is a lock for another $100 million+ opening. With a longer running time and still having Shrek with the chance of at least $60 million for its second weekend, I would say Pirates won't reach part 2's total, but it'll get in the $120 million range.

Last edited by Mr. Cinema; 05-21-07 at 10:58 AM.
Old 05-21-07, 11:33 AM
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Likely $100 million plus opening weekends:

Pirates
Harry Potter
The Simpsons

That's probably it. Transformers, Bornue Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3 should all have no problem making it quickly over 100 million...but the first weekend? I just don't know...
Old 05-21-07, 11:35 AM
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I don't see The Simpsons doing $100m+, thats more along the lines of final gross than opening weekend ($40m tops).

Pirates is probable, as is Harry Potter. The 100m barrier being nothing anymore is funny though, and it's hillarious seeing stuff like X3 fizzle out so quickly.
Old 05-21-07, 11:50 AM
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The shorter window between theatrical release and DVD release also promotes the big opening splash weekend for most films to make the bulk of their box office take.
Old 05-23-07, 01:16 AM
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Originally Posted by james2025a
There will be a lot of big earners this summer. But i doubt we will see any $200 million openers anytime soon....if ever m(at least domestic openings). The simple reason behind this is due to lack of number of cinema screens that would be showing a single movie in order to generate that amount of money. There are approx. 5000 cinemas in the US. in order for them all to generate an opening of over $200 mill you would need to have a movie on multiple screens in each cinema and every showing would have to be sold out. Thats not taking into account the varying amounts of prices that different cinemas charge, the number of screens available and also the numer of seats in each screening room. As big as Harry Potter is i doubt it will get those numbers.
Not this Harry Potter, but the final Harry Potter (which is what the OP predicted to be the first $200 mill opener). Look at how fast movies are topping each other with opening weekends now. What's the upper limit? We just don't know.
Old 05-23-07, 06:51 AM
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The last Harry Potter film would be my choice as the movie who has the best chance to break Spidey 3's $151 million opening. It probably will since ticket prices continue to rise.
Old 05-23-07, 08:13 AM
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Originally Posted by RichC2
I don't see The Simpsons doing $100m+, thats more along the lines of final gross than opening weekend ($40m tops).
Yeah, I'm not sure how well The Simpsons is going to perform, but I don't think it will come close to a $100 mil opening in any case. The movie is at least 10 years too late IMO.
Old 05-23-07, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted by matome
Yeah, I'm not sure how well The Simpsons is going to perform, but I don't think it will come close to a $100 mil opening in any case. The movie is at least 10 years too late IMO.
1992-1994ish would have been good, today I'm not so sure. I say 40 mil opening week with 100 mil total.

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