Pre-Awards shows...which is more premonition for Oscar?
 

I noticed the SAG awards are on Sunday 1/28/07 and it used to be the Golden Globes were a very good tester for who will win many of the top prizes at Academy Awards night and thus I never really gave the others any attention.

But with all them SAG, DGA, PGA, Critic's Choice, and Golden Globes which is the best predicter?

The DGA, at least for Best Director is a good indicator. Last year's Oscar winner Crash wasn't even nominated for a Golden Globe. So, I wouldn't put too much faith in the Golden Globes.

The Director's Guild, funnily enough, is a pretty accurate predictor for Best Picture nominees. And Best Director winners, of course. The Globes aren't very accurate at all.

The Golden Globes have and always will be a joke. I'd pay attention to the SAG, DGA, and PGA. Afterall, many of the same members are part of the AMPAS.

Last year, the SAG awards matched the Oscars exactly. They even gave crash the best ensemble award. After watching this year's SAG awards I predict a match at the Oscars.

The SAG ensemble award is kinda misleading. Some people mistake it for a best picture award, which it is not. But it does often reward the eventual best picture winner (about 50% of the time in recent years). Still, it should be noted that the award almost always goes toward an ensemble movie. And many time SAG has taken a more ensemble oriented movie over the eventual best picture winner (i.e. Traffic over Gladiator in '01, Gosford Park over A Beautiful Mind in '02, Sideways over Million Dollar Baby in '05)

The SAG awards are good gauges for the acting awards, the DGA is very, very good for the director's award, and even the Golden Globes usually do pretty well (though note the the GGs separate comedy/musical from drama).


Right now the Oscars races in the acting categories look like pretty strong locks for Whitaker, Mirren, Murphy, and Hudson. I mean Eddie Murphy beat Leo (The Departed version) in the SAG award. Both the GGs and Sags went that way.

Best picture is still in air a bit. I suprised The Departed got passed over by both the GGs and SAG (the GGs LOVE Scorsese), which isn't a good sign. I doubt Little Miss Sunshine wins best picture however, as that kinda of movie just doesn't do well come award time.

Just came across this stat. The SAGs have been around for 13 years (this being #13) . The ensemble award wasn't in the first show. How past SAG winners have faired at the Oscars:

Best Actor: The same 8/12 times = 66.66%
Best Actress: The same 9/12 times = 75%
Best Supporting Actor: The same 6/12 times = 50%
Best Supporting Actress: The same 7/12 times = 58.33%
Best Ensemble Acting winning Best Picture: The same 5/11 times = 45.45%

Although I believe no one has won both the GGs and SAG award and lost the Oscar

lauren bacall won both the GG and SAG for supporting actress for The Mirror Has Two Faces in 1997 and then lost to Juliet Binoche.

Renee Zewellger won both for Chicago for best actress and then lost the Oscar to Nicole Kidman in 2003.

but these 2 times out of all those other times are just abnormalities.

Good point, though Nicole Kidman also won a GG in 2003. So I guess it's pretty rare.

also, here is the breakdown of the Academy by what the people are:

Actors 1260
Producers 461
Executives 429
Sound 415
Writers 396
Art Directors 378
Directors 376
Public Relations 371
Members at Large 283
Shorts/Feature Ani 316
Visual Effects 249
Music 237
Editors 224
Cinematographers 186
Documentary 134
Makeup 115
Total 5830