Memorial Day Box Office (5/26 - 5/29): Guess the Winner, Estimates, and Actuals
 

So instead of the usual box office weekend threads we have that start on Saturday, I wanted to try something new. With Friday coming up and the start of the Memorial Day weekend, we might have one of the biggest box office weekends in the past few years on our hands. One of the summer's most anticipated films, X3, is going against The Da Vinci Code and Over the Hedge. Two previously released films guaranteed to have legs after positive audience word of mouth.

The bigger question for debate is how much X3 and The Da Vinci Code will make? X3 is coming off the heels of X2 which opened up with a nearly $90 million opening weekend three years ago whereas The Da Vinci Code is coming off an opening weekend with almost $300 million worldwide. Will The Da Vinci Code hurt X3's opening gross or will X3 run victor?

Remember, this weekend is a four day weekend. Any predictions one has must be for Friday - Monday, not the usual Friday - Sunday.

My predictions for the 4-day weekend:
1. X3: $115-120 million.
2. The Da Vinci Code: $54-58 million.
3. Over the Hedge: $29-34 million.
4. Mission: Impossible 3: $6-7 million.
5. Poseidon: $5 million.
6. RV: $3 million.
7. Just My Luck: $2 million.
8. See No Evil: $2 million.
9. An American Haunting: $0.6-0.7 million.
10. United 93: $0.5 million.

Bonus Question: How much money will An Inconvenient Truth make on 4 screens? My guess: $235,000 over the 4-day weekend.

Whoa! The Da Vinci Code will have positive word of mouth? Who have you been talking to? I expect a Hulk-esque drop for The Da Vinci Code. I think it's a no-brainer that X-Men 3 will be #1.

X-Men will rake in somewhere around $124,556,987 - give or take a few bucks.

The critics have been ripping the film a new asshole, but the regular average Joe Sixpacks out there actually like the film. All my friends who have seen it can't stop raving about it, despite my claims that the film simply wasn't all it's made out to be. The only way it would do a massive Hulk-esque drop is if the film was flat-out shit and everybody hated it. One may argue the film's quality, but people are liking it and the film is going to have some huge legs.

I am hoping that Over the Hedge doesn't die during the storm. It's DreamWorks' best animated film yet and deserves Shrek-like numbers.

I voted for X-Men to hit in the $80-99 million range. I'm not sure if it will break $100 million with possible competition from Da Vinci Code and Over the Hedge

For X-Men: The Last Stand, I'm going with what the tracking has been saying, around $100 million over the MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, which will break The Lost World's MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND record of $90 million.

Since Da Vinci Code dropped a bit on Saturday, I'm gonna say it has a 50%+ drop. But it'll still have a nice take of around $55 million over the 4 day haul.

x-men will make over $100 million.... just because if the length of the movie and the amount of theaters showing it...

$100 mil for X3

1. X3: $84 million.
2. The Da Vinci Code: $38 - $42 million.
3. Over the Hedge: $28 - $32 million.
4. Mission: Impossible 3: $7-8 million.
5. Poseidon: $4 million.
6. RV: $2.2 million.
7. See No Evil: $1.8 million.
8. Just My Luck: $1.6 million.
9. United 93: $0.7 million.
10. An American Haunting: $0.6 million.

Those are my 3-day numbers, 4-day, I'd say, add about $20m for X3 and $10m for both Da Vinci and Over The Hedge.

An Inconvenient Truth, in my opinion, will likely wind up with $80k - $120k.

I'll guess that X-Men will make around $75 million.

I'm going with $55 million for X3 over 4 days.

Yeah I was thinking in the 50 million range myself, just because everything seems to underperform lately...I mean Da Vinci opened big, but that was on controversy. Well, they will get my $10.50.

X3 will make $15.35


give or take a couple of cents

You mean Ratner is paying for his own ticket and a small popcorn?

X3: 90m
DaVinci: 40m
Hedge: 30m

I think X3 will take in about $105 mil

so far only 44% at RT. i'm def gonna see it, i just wish it had more meat (runtime), a little more that is. i know i will get flamed for the "quality vs. quantity" but i do like a healthy runtime to my action pics (at least 2 hours, maybe a little more).
when X1 was over i thirsted for more. X2 was weightier and thriliing. i think the last needs to be epic, but i guess the jury is still out.
i don't think Da Vinci will have much legs, and given it made $77 mil last weekend and given the runtime for X3 will make for more showings, so i think it will make $90-100 mil. easy for the 4 days.

I think it will top off at 74million. Repectable but not spiderman2 great. There seems to be the batman and robin syndrome of too many characters in this movie.

I thought I read an article the other day about bad tracking numbers for summer block busters. X Men was almost at the Posedion level. I wouldn't expect anything past 45-50 million. I say Da Vinci will still be #1.

The articles I'm reading are saying the opposite. X3 is tracking very well, with a high level of awareness, something Poseidon sorely lacked.

From Hollywood Elsewhere:

"Brett Ratner's sequel is going to make over $100 million over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend . (A recent tracking report had general awareness at 89, definite interest at 56 and first choice at 23. By the time next weekend rolls around the first choice figure for X-Men 3 will likely be up to 40.)"

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/archi...avinci_cod.php

X3 - $104 mil
Da Vinci - $53 mil
Over the Hedge - $36 mil

X3 - $110
Over The Hedge - $40
DaVinci - $40

I don't think Over the Hedge will drop at all condering the long holiday. DaVinci wasn't percieved as bad as the critics made it out, but no one is running out and raving about it either.

X3, much like DaVinci, will be huge no matter what the critics have to say. And this movie is squarely aimed at a younger audience so I expect some repeat business within the weekend itself.

X-men 3 has, thus far, had the best tracking of any summer movie.

I think Over the Hedge will have a % increase this weekend. Seems like the family cartoons always have a better chance to go up during their second weekend. I think this is going to be a huge weekend for movie business overall. The big 3 are going to clean up.

X3 - 102 mill