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Box Office: 12/21 - 12/25

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Box Office: 12/21 - 12/25

Old 12-26-05, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema
Kong had a nice Sunday and Monday total. Right now, it's about $8 million behind Batman Begins at this point (13 days). I think it can still reach $200 million, but anything more than that will be tough. That will certainly help its Oscar chances.
The good news for KONG is that nothing...aside from MUNICH going wide in mid-January...is really going to be released that might knock it from the top or near top of the box office between now and Feb. 10th. That's when we'll get to see this:

Old 12-26-05, 09:01 PM
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that could be good. Looks like Bettany is the bad guy, which is something he doesn't play often.
Old 12-26-05, 09:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Shannon Nutt
FIREWALL? Really?

I can't say I agree.

What about GLORY ROAD? Uplifting sports drama.

LAST HOLIDAY? Paramount is spending a good amount of coin to promote that film.

UNDERWORLD EVOLUTION?

I just don't think KONG has the gas. Time will tell though.
Old 12-26-05, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by scott shelton
FIREWALL? Really?

I can't say I agree.

What about GLORY ROAD? Uplifting sports drama.

LAST HOLIDAY? Paramount is spending a good amount of coin to promote that film.

UNDERWORLD EVOLUTION?

I just don't think KONG has the gas. Time will tell though.
Glory Road can go either way. While Disney has had huge success on Remember the Titans and The Rookie, The Greatest Game Ever Played underpreformed at the box office. The former two released had mainstream actors in the leads, the latter two released (Greatest Game... and Glory Road) do not. Now while Coach Carter came out last year at the same exact time, Glory Road is preaching more towards families than teenagers (which was what made Coach Carter number one at the box office).

I don't think Queen Latifah can carry a film, so I don't think Last Holiday is going to be a winner. The masses didn't flock to Beauty Shop and that was a spin-off of an already established franchise no less.

Underworld: Evolution can go either way. The first film only made $50 million, however, it was released in September of the year it was released. September is not nearly the dumping ground that January is. Any sort of genre film released in January tends to die a quick death.
Old 12-26-05, 10:11 PM
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Since we're expanding the scope of this thread I'll throw in my 2cents. By the time Feb rolls around the holiday films will be nearly done (heck we'll probably have DVD anouncements by then).

Ford in a thriller with his family in jeopardy is his kind of film - but it's going on nine yrs since his big '97 year. Even assuming the movie is great (which I highly doubt) I don't see more than a 22mill opening and 60 total.

Underworld would no doubt be the one to dent Kong's audience. I expect it to be bigger than the original but still no more than 70mill.

Glory Road? 40mill tops.

But overall Kong's got a pretty easy ride ahead of it. All the more reason it's 185mill will be dissapointing.
Old 12-26-05, 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel
Glory Road can go either way. While Disney has had huge success on Remember the Titans and The Rookie, The Greatest Game Ever Played underpreformed at the box office. The former two released had mainstream actors in the leads, the latter two released (Greatest Game... and Glory Road) do not. Now while Coach Carter came out last year at the same exact time, Glory Road is preaching more towards families than teenagers (which was what made Coach Carter number one at the box office).

ROAD is Bruckheimer and basketball. Not golf. I think GAME is a bad example to use. CARTER is a better example, but ROAD lacks the urban pull. Sneaks next weekend will give a better impression how it plays, but I'm thinking HOOSIERish appeal.


I don't think Queen Latifah can carry a film, so I don't think Last Holiday is going to be a winner. The masses didn't flock to Beauty Shop and that was a spin-off of an already established franchise no less.
A franchise that was wearing out its welcome by then, but point taken. And BEAUTY SHOP was pitched decidedly urban. HOLIDAY is less so.

Again, HOLIDAY has some major marketing guns behind it.


Underworld: Evolution can go either way. The first film only made $50 million, however, it was released in September of the year it was released. September is not nearly the dumping ground that January is. Any sort of genre film released in January tends to die a quick death.
You, of all people here, should know the fallacy of that January "dumping ground" statement. I mean, come on...Or maybe you're trying to bait me...

Anyhoo, UNDERWORLD pulled 100 mil worldwide, and another 50 mil on DVD. There will be people coming that first weekend, which is all Sony needs.
Old 12-28-05, 12:44 AM
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Originally Posted by scott shelton
Anyhoo, UNDERWORLD pulled 100 mil worldwide, and another 50 mil on DVD. There will be people coming that first weekend, which is all Sony needs.
See, I'm a believer of: "Don't make a sequel to a film with a budget of equal-or-over to what the previous film made during it's initial theatrical run."

Example? Sony's Resident Evil: Apocalypse. It made $10 million more theatrically than the first outing, but the budget was also $15 million more as well.

Example Dos? Sony's Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle. First film made $125 million during it's theatrical run, so why not have the sequel cost that amount because sequels usually do better business? Yeah. Not a smart move.

Example Tres? Sony's Stuart Little 2.

I can go on and on with sequels to Sony films (shit, I could've mentioned their recent Legend of Zorro or Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo) that have done poorly. Sure, you can fight me back with a Men In Black II, a Bad Boys II, or a Spider-Man 2 for sequels of theirs that have turned a profit. The point of the matter is that the problem Sony has had for years now is that they always make sure that the budget for the sequel is somehow significantly higher than the first film for the sequel to break even theatrically.

Underworld could fight Kong off, but even if it does, you get to the bigger question of will it turn a profit? It's a genre film, so you're guaranteed a 50%-or-more drop-off the second weekend. And with a budget of $50 million or so (compared to the first one of around $25 million), it's going to have to do at least somewhat better than part one to at least pull in a profit.
Old 12-28-05, 10:05 AM
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I will go on record as saying

Glory Road will be as successful as Coach Carter or the Rookie. Lead actor doesn't matter. Golf is what killed The Greatest game. When's the last time people go excited about a golf movie? I can't think of one. I can think of goldf movies that were forgotten though. Bagger Vance anyone? Bobby Jones? Greatest Game?

I hardly know anything about Last Holiday, although what Beauty Shop took in should have little to do with how successful this movie is. I doubt it does much in terms of box office, but I can see it doing slighlty less than Underworld.

Underworld Evolution should do about what the original did. Which is nothing groundbreaking bo office wise. I'm not sure if that should count as a "threat" or not.

None of these movies should sniff $100 million, and only Glory Road is a decent bet to break $50 million. So that's not exactly earth shattering competition.
Old 12-28-05, 10:29 AM
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Glory Road will be as successful as Coach Carter or the Rookie. Lead actor doesn't matter. Golf is what killed The Greatest game. When's the last time people go excited about a golf movie? I can't think of one. I can think of goldf movies that were forgotten though. Bagger Vance anyone? Bobby Jones? Greatest Game?
I wouldn't compare Bobby Jones to Bagger Vance or Greatest Game as that never got a wide release. At least the latter two was released on more than 1500+ screens.

I hardly know anything about Last Holiday, although what Beauty Shop took in should have little to do with how successful this movie is. I doubt it does much in terms of box office, but I can see it doing slighlty less than Underworld.
Yes it should. Both are romantic comedies starring Queen Latifah. If people didn't show up the first time, why would they want to show up a second time? The only difference between the two is as Shelton mentioned, Beauty Shop was being advertised towards the urban crowd as Last Holiday is being advertised towards the white people.
Old 12-28-05, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel
See, I'm a believer of: "Don't make a sequel to a film with a budget of equal-or-over to what the previous film made during it's initial theatrical run."
It's a nice sentiment, and I agree. But get too cheap, and we have to deal with BAND CAMPs all year.
Old 12-28-05, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Shannon Nutt
The good news for KONG is that nothing...aside from MUNICH going wide in mid-January...is really going to be released that might knock it from the top or near top of the box office between now and Feb. 10th.
The problem with this is that after New Year's weekend, the law of diminishing returns is going to kick in. Unless it pulls a Titanic and doesn't drop for weeks straight, but frankly that just ain't gonna happen. Considering Kong's last weekend take was $21 mil, even small drops are going to leave it a with less than $15 million weekend in a few weeks.

Let's say it makes another $25 million this weekend (with the holiday and all, although it may be a generous guess), with smallish 25% drops each week...

Weekend starting...
1/6 $18.75 mil
1/13 $14.06 mil
1/20 $10.55 mil
1/28 $7.91 mil

And that's with atypical 25% drops, which even the LotR films didn't achieve most weeks. It also doesn't take into consideration the fact that KK will surely lose screens once the Oscar movies start expanding and the new openers arrive.
Old 12-28-05, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Jericho
I will go on record as saying

Golf is what killed The Greatest game. When's the last time people go excited about a golf movie? I can't think of one.
Old 12-28-05, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel
Yes it should. Both are romantic comedies starring Queen Latifah. If people didn't show up the first time, why would they want to show up a second time? The only difference between the two is as Shelton mentioned, Beauty Shop was being advertised towards the urban crowd as Last Holiday is being advertised towards the white people.
Because the movies are different. Adam Sandler made a romantic comedy in Punch Drunk Love, which no one saw, and made several others in Fifty First Dates, Anger Management, Mr. Deeds, etc...

Tom Hanks was in a comedy - the Ladykillers, which no one saw, and also in the comedy like The Terminal.

I'm of the belief the the stars rarely make a significant difference in box office take. There are a few rare exceptions, but it's the movie itself that determines box office. Genre, Quality, Fan base, etc...

In Queen Latifah's case, the two movies may be of different quality and somewhat different genres. Beauty Shop did have romantic comedy elements to it, but it wasn't a pure romantic comedy like the recent Must Love Dogs or many Meg Ryan/Julia Roberts flicks. It was a hybrid, sort of a female based barbershop, which was more pure comedy. And if you insist on using past movies as evidence of Queen Latifah's drawing power, what about Bringing Down the House? Isn't that very similar in style to Beauty Shop? Which is the more accurate assesment?
Old 12-28-05, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Y2K Falcon

Good call, although being a comedy probably helped a lot. I guess I should include Happy Gilmore too. But straight movies about Golf? It's not exactly hitting must-see status.
Old 12-28-05, 02:27 PM
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As far as golf movies go, they are definitely more of a miss. I think it has to do with the golf is boring stigma. Make a golf drama and you are set for a couple of boring hours. Probably why the only hit golf movies are comedies. I thought Tin Cup was great as well as HG & Caddyshack.
Old 12-28-05, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel
See, I'm a believer of: "Don't make a sequel to a film with a budget of equal-or-over to what the previous film made during it's initial theatrical run."

Example? Sony's Resident Evil: Apocalypse. It made $10 million more theatrically than the first outing, but the budget was also $15 million more as well.
In many cases, sequels cost more due to increased pay to principle talent, on top of some extra expenses. But this isn't a good example...RE:A not only made 10 million more doemstically, but 20 million more internationally. It sold quite well on DVD. I don't think Sony feels bad about that sequel...especially considering they're making part 3.

While it might seem that making a film that's more expensive that in all likelihood will make less money seems like a bad idea, on the other hand you have to consider the reduced risk. Sequels often do make less than their predecessors, sometimes to the tune of 2/3rd. But you only seem to be looking at domestic box office, and when you look at the entire picture of theatrical and ancillary chains, many of these sequels were far from bad ideas. Resident Evil in particular.

Even Charlie's Angels, while a disapointment I'm sure for the studio, while a bit more expensive than its predecessor, still made pretty much the exact same amount of money (259 compared to 264). They spent too much on that one though, but still managed ok with it.

Your rule is nice...but I think it should only apply when you take into consideration ALL of the box office, not just domestic.
Old 12-28-05, 04:13 PM
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I think it can still reach $200 million, but anything more than that will be tough.
I don't think it has a chance to reach 200 million. In fact, I don't think it gets close. It would need to show some serious legs, something it has not shown. This past weekend Kong took a stout 57% drop. That's a big drop, even for a typically front loaded event film. If Kong was going to have any legs, it would have shown it this weekend. It didn't.
Old 12-28-05, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Terrell
I don't think it has a chance to reach 200 million. In fact, I don't think it gets close. It would need to show some serious legs, something it has not shown. This past weekend Kong took a stout 57% drop. That's a big drop, even for a typically front loaded event film. If Kong was going to have any legs, it would have shown it this weekend. It didn't.
How quick do you think it's going to drop? It only needs another $72 Million to make $200, after making $12 Million on Monday and $8 Million on Tuesday. It should be at least halfway there by the end of the week, I'd think.
Old 12-28-05, 05:14 PM
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yeah, folks are forgetting that Christmas break is in full effect. A lot of folks are seeing films during the down time and Kong will get a good amount of weekday traffic this way.
Old 12-28-05, 05:24 PM
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Had Christmas Eve not been on Saturday, Kong and every other movie wouldn't have had a massive drop from Friday.

It has $128 million domestic and $282 million worldwide ($30 million more than Narnia...but it's likely that hasn't opened everywhere yet). $200 million is not out of the question. It took in $8 million yesterday which is higher than its previous Tuesday amount. I'm sure kids being out of school has something to do with that. Narnia is beating it, but Kong isn't the family friendly film with a built-in church audience either. I'm happy with the success it's having.

It's now only $2 million behind Batman Begins at its 14 day total.

Last edited by Mr. Cinema; 12-28-05 at 05:29 PM.
Old 12-28-05, 05:56 PM
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Read a newspaper article the other day that the promoters of Kong will push the movie towards the female audience...the "romance" between the girl and the gorilla. In the first few weeks, it had no problem bringing in the male audience.

I haven't seen Jackson's version. I do remember seeing Jessica Lange in the other remake at a small movie theatre years ago.

Last edited by big whoppa; 12-28-05 at 05:59 PM.
Old 12-29-05, 02:49 PM
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According to box office mojo, King Kong took in another $7 million Wednesday ($2 million higher than its previous Wednesday) bringing the total to around $135 million. $200 mil is looking real good. The film should pass $150 million after this weekend. Christmas break does make a difference as you can see its weekday totals are larger than the previous week.
Old 12-29-05, 03:28 PM
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Yes, but watch for the precipitous drops next week when everyone goes back to school and work.

Wednesday #'s from boxofficemojo:

1 The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion Witch And The Wardrobe
$8,756,930 $183,159,000 3853 $2273
2 King Kong
$7,116,240 $135,632,875 3576 $1990
3 Cheaper By The Dozen 2
$5,074,793 $30,648,826 3175 $1598
4 Fun With Dick & Jane
$4,708,430 $4,655,000 3056 $1541
5 Rumor Has It...
$2,505,426 $12,583,985 2815 $890
6 Memoirs Of A Geisha
$2,369,988 $18,029,000 1547 $1532
7 The Family Stone
$2,233,688 $33,801,386 2469 $905
8 Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire
$2,062,373 $267,407,264 2521 $818
9 The Ringer
$1,917,442 $11,683,566 1829 $1048
10 Munich
$1,109,220 $8,368,360 532 $2085
Old 12-29-05, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by matome
Yes, but watch for the precipitous drops next week when everyone goes back to school and work.
Most colleges are out for another few weeks, so while I'd expect a substantial drop in weekday prices for next week, I would still expect them to be a bit above average.

-JP
Old 12-30-05, 10:47 AM
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Box Office Mojo is predicting Kong will take in $33.5 million over the 4 day New Years weekend. If that is close to accurate, that would put the film over $175 million, which easily paves the wave for $200 million+. As I mentioned before and was quickly told I was wrong, word-of-mouth is good on this film. Otherwise, it would've dropped off the face of the Earth. A strong Christmas showing proves people are seeing this. Plus, it very likely could get double digit Oscar nominations, which will help. I don't hear the word "flop" anymore. I think we can bury one that now.

Not bad for a movie that:
1. Has no book tie-in/built-in audience
2. Is...oh no!....3 hours long
3. Not kid/church/family friendly

I have the film getting 12 nominations...which may be a stretch, but that does include Picture, Director, and Screenplay. I also have it for Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Costumes, Makeup, Visual Effects, and Score.

Last edited by Mr. Cinema; 12-30-05 at 10:52 AM.

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