Oscar odds and favorites: who do you like?
 

saw the below article in the New York Post about oscar contenders. Still a little early, but what are you looking forward to seeing and what looks like best picture material to you?

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TWO-THIRDS of the way through the year, only two serious candidates for the Best Picture Oscar have yet emerged: "Crash" and "Cinderella Man." But the next four months are Hollywood's favorite time for prestige pictures, bringing us the return of Oscar favorites Steven Spielberg, Jamie Foxx, Cameron Crowe and Sean Penn. Here's a tip sheet for the early Oscar favorites.


Good Night. And Good Luck (Oct. 7)


George Clooney's second effort as a director tackles up-to-the-minute issues, taking on Sen. Joe McCarthy through the eyes of Edward R. Murrow (David Strathairn). Though the film is small in scale and shot in black and white, no political story gets Hollywood more excited than an attack on McCarthyism.


Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Clooney for Best Director


Elizabethtown (Oct. 14)


Crowe's first film since the uneven "Vanilla Sky" is a hugely anticipated return to semi-autobiography for the writer-director of "Almost Famous," which won him a screenwriting Oscar. Orlando Bloom stars in this comedy-drama about a workaholic who buries his father but is cheered up by a stewardess (Kirsten Dunst). "Lord of the Rings" elf Bloom hasn't proven he's an actor yet, but with all the armor he's been lugging around lately, he hasn't had a chance.


Prospects: Crowe for Best Director and Best Screenplay


Northcountry (Oct. 14)
Walk the Line (Nov. 18)


This year's "Ray" wannabe is "Walk the Line," starring Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash and Nashville-bred Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash. Phoenix got an Oscar nomination for his campy work in "Gladiator," but can he rule the screen the way Cash ruled country music? Director James Mangold's films have been hyped before ("Cop Land," "Girl, Interrupted") but he's never had much success. An equally juicy role goes to Charlize Theron in "North Country," about a landmark sexual harassment suit among miners that features Oscar favorite Frances McDormand. Beautiful women who play deglamorized blue-collar types are practically guaranteed Oscar glory.


Prospects: "North Country" for Best Picture, Phoenix for Best Actor, Witherspoon and Theron for Best Actress, McDormand for Best Supporting Actress


Jarhead (Nov. 4)


Based on Marine sniper Anthony Swofford's memoir of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, "Jarhead" has everything you look for in an Oscar film: a literary pedigree, an Oscar-winning director ("American Beauty" helmer Sam Mendes) and an acclaimed cast featuring Jamie Foxx, Peter Sarsgaard and Jake Gyllenhaal.


Prospects: Best Picture, Foxx and Sarsgaard for Best Supporting Actor, Mendes for Best Director


The New World (Nov. 9)


Reclusive director Terrence Malick ("Badlands," "The Thin Red Line") retells the story of Capt. John Smith and Pocahontas (newcomer Q'Orianka Kilcher). But Malick's films are weirdly muted, and Hollywood's been tiring of perennial almost-star Colin Farrell.


Prospects: Best Screenplay, Malick for Best Director, Kilcher for Best Actress


Breakfast on Pluto (Nov. 18)


Neil Jordan's latest will make Cillian Murphy a star, if he isn't one already on the strength of his attention-grabbing turns in "Batman Begins" and "Red Eye." Murphy is said to be spectacular as a rocking Irish drag queen in the IRA-themed drama. Ever since 1992's "The Crying Game," Jordan pretty much owns the IRA cross-dressing subgenre.

Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Murphy for Best Actor, Jordan for Best Director

Rent (Nov. 23)
The Producers (Dec. 21)

Inspired by the success of "Chicago," two big Broadway musicals are coming to the screen. The tragic, AIDS-themed "Rent" is directed by "Harry Potter" helmer Chris Columbus with Rosario Dawson and Taye Diggs as stars. There's also "The Producers," which brings back stage stars Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick, and adds Will Ferrell and Uma Thurman.

Prospects: Best Picture for either, Lane for Best Actor, Dawson for Best Actress

Memoirs of A Geisha (Dec. 9)
Brokeback Mountain (Dec. 9)

A film Spielberg originally was set to direct went to Chicago's Rob Marshall instead: "Geisha," another literary adaptation, stars the indestructible "Crouching Tiger" star Ziyi Zhang. And "Crouching Tiger" director Ang Lee is back, too, with the gay-cowboy drama "Brokeback Mountain," starring Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger in a film that has to be better than its log line.

Prospects: Best Picture, Ang for Best Director, Zhang for Best Actress

All the king's men (Dec. 16)

Another politically hot December film, this remake of the 1949 Best Picture winner about sleazy politics is sure to take a whack at the Bush White House. It stars another committed lefty, Sean Penn, along with Jude Law and Anthony Hopkins. Top screenwriter Steven Zaillian takes his first directing job.

Prospects: Best Picture, Zaillian for Best Director and nods for Oscar favorites Penn, Law and/or Hopkins

Munich (Dec. 23)

The Christmas season brings out the really big gun: Steven Spielberg, who examines the Israeli agents assigned to assassinate the terrorists who killed Israeli athletes during the 1972 summer Olympics in Munich. Originally titled "Vengeance," the script is tightly guarded. But it's written by leftist playwright Tony Kushner and is said to have found inspiration in a book slanted against the Israelis. So observers assume it's going to cast a harsh eye on the Mossad's actions. The star is "Layer Cake" breakout Daniel Craig.

Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Spielberg for Best Director

lol, Neil Jordan has created his own sub-genre!

Wow, those movies that have yet to come out don't even sound all that great. I'm looking forward to Jarhead and a few others but I don't expect much out of them.

The only one I've seen that is Oscar worthy is "Crash". I just hope it's not forgotten when Oscar time rolls around.

Ouch. That one musta fookin' hurt.

Never underestimate Spielberg...

Colleen Atwood is a lock for Costume Design for Memoirs of a Geisha.

I don't like Phoenix's chances for WALK THE LINE. I do like Bill Murray's chances for BROKEN FLOWERS - especially since a lot of Oscar voters felt he should have gotten the award for LOST IN TRANSLATION. I think CINDERELLA MAN will be shut out in the major categories...other than Crowe's performance, it's a pretty cliched movie...and Crowe's already got an Oscar and been nominated so many times, he'll probably be passed over for this one - which wasn't a very demanding role (acting wise, not physically) for him.

I'm hoping Fiennes will win Best Actor for whatever movie they decide to go for.

I think Cinderella Man has a lock on a bunch of major categories. The movie is practically an Oscar voter's wet dream.

I'm with you but at this time last year I thought that The Aviator and Million $ Baby didn't sound promising and I really enjoyed those so I hope for much of the same this winter.

Constant Gardner should get a nom.

My fav so far is Crash and Cindarella Man,both deserve a nom.

You can say that again. Sappy biopic, depression era, Russell Crowe, Renee Zelwegger, Ron Howard. The only slip-up was the summer release, as opposed to a fall release. However, if this film isn't hand-made for a truckload of Oscar nominations, then I know nothing about the Academy. Not to mention Giamatti, who walked into that film with a guaranteed "sorry for fucking up last year" nomination.

-JP

I love Cameron Crowe movies including Vanilla Sky. My favorite is Almost Famous, and I have high hopes for Elizabethtown. I like the trailer a lot, here's hoping he delivers.

I'm also looking forward to All the King's Men, a fantasic cast in that one, Munich, the name Spielberg is all I need to get me excited.

I hope Russell Crowe and Bill Murray are not forgotten this winter either, they gave two great performances in two of the best movies of the year.

The only ones guaranteed to get a nom are Walk The Line, Jarhead, and The New World.

Broken Flowers is likely to be this year's Lost In Translation.

There is lots of buzz going on with Gwyneth (Sp??) Paltrow with her performance in Proof.

just saw crash last night on dvd and i was totally blown away. I hope the voters don't forget this movie come oscar time.

I think Phoenix will have a good shot because Cash is such an icon, one of those guys who only becomes a larger legend as the years pass. I'm hoping he or Crowe take home best actor- I thought Crowe did a great job in Cinderella Man. I don't think ANY winner's role this year will be one for the ages in any case.

best actor -
phillip seymour hoffman in capote
heth ledger in brokeback mountain
joaquin pheonix in walk the line
david starthairn in good night, and good luck.
bill murray in broken flowers

my guess: phillip seymour hoffman or heth ledger

Jarhead looks like it can be an oscar movie...

I dunno... what's Tom Hanks been in lately?

I'll predict now - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN will win Best Picture.

It's not my favourite movie (not even top ten), but I think this film will connect to the voters in a big way. Heck, hardened Toronto Film Fest critics were crying - I expect the normal audience (especially female) to have even less resistance.

I don't think Jarhead has much of a chance, now.

I'd be willing to bet Jarhead will at least win for adapted screenplay, it's a great & faithful interpretation of the book.

After seeing "Jarhead" and "Capote" this weekend, I am adding them to "Crash" as 3 films I will be rooting for this year's Oscar season. I thought Phillip Seymour Hoffman was terrific as Truman Capote. He seems to be the front runner in the Best Actor race right now. I hope he wins, definitely one of my favorite actors. I believe this will be his first Oscar nomination. "Capote" did well this weekend, earning another $1 million on only 183 screens. I saw it yesterday around 2 and the theater was 3/4 full.

I'll be seeing "Good Night, and Good Luck" soon. I think that could get some nominations as well.

Of course, you have to include Spielberg's "Munich", which could do alot of damage. Too bad "All the King's Men" got pushed back until next April.

Hoffman will win for Capote just because of the high pitched Capote voice.

After watching Jarhead i really hope it gets a nod. I loved the movie and despite all the criticism I enjoy it for what it was. (not a war movie)

So far I think the BP nominees will be:

Munich
Brokeback Mountain
Walk the Line
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

This is all based on a wild guess.

Yeah, but it's a pretty good guess. The other two films with possible chances are GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK and KING KONG. WALK THE LINE may be the one that's kicked out though, since it was decently received but not overwhelmingly during TIFF. The performances in the film, though, will be locked forerunners.

I'm dreading GEISHA personally - the 10+ minutes trailer I saw was not promising at all.