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Premiere magazine picks the top ten summer movies...

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Premiere magazine picks the top ten summer movies...

Old 04-14-05, 10:16 PM
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Premiere magazine picks the top ten summer movies...

Hmmmm...I don't know about their picks as far as how they will finish money-wise - does mr. and mrs. smith seem like it'll finish so high? Anyway, here are the movies as Premiere sees them by seasons end...and how much they think each will make (article in the new may summer movie issue)

1. Star Wars Ep.III - $400 million
2. Madagascar ----- $240 million
3. War of the Worlds -$180 million
4. Batman Begins ----$150 million
5. Kingdom of Heaven $130 million
6. Mr/Mrs Smith -----$125 million
7. Charlie/Chocolate Factory $120 million
8. Stealth -----------$115 million
9. Fantastic 4 -------$110 million
10. Cinderella man ---$105 million

I'd say Batman is a little low, Stealth a little high.
Old 04-14-05, 10:29 PM
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I think Madagascar is about $100 million too high. Other than that I concur. Well maybe not Cinderalla Man and Stealth breaking $60 mill would be a miracle.
Old 04-14-05, 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt
I think Madagascar is about $100 million too high. Other than that I concur. Well maybe not Cinderalla Man and Stealth breaking $60 mill would be a miracle.
I think Madagascar could hit $240 Million. I'm not seeing very many animated movies on the release list for this summer, CGI or otherwise. There's Chicken Little, but that comes out over a full month after Madagascar. Madgascar hits right at the end of May, when all the kids are getting out of school for the summer. Last year Shrek 2 made over $440 Million in that spot. Granted, some of that was the popularity of Shrek 1 carrying over, but still $240 Million doesn't seem like too outrageous of a figure.
Old 04-14-05, 10:39 PM
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Batman Begins' estimate seems very low. I'd say at least $200 million for that.

I have a feeling Fantastic 4 won't clear $100 million. Same goes for Cinderella Man, which looks more like a late year Oscar film than summer fare.

I had never heard of Stealth, and it looks like a direct-to-video movie being repackaged now that Jamie Foxx is a "star." The plot sounds like some cheesy combination of T2 and Broken Arrow.

Bewitched or The Longest Yard might break into this list. The summer is light on high profile comedies, although its often hard what will be a hit in that genre.
Old 04-14-05, 10:54 PM
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I would drop Stealth and Mr/Mrs Smith from the list. Then drop Madagascar by about $70 million. War of the Worlds and Batman each add $20 million.
Old 04-14-05, 11:06 PM
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Wow. They're going out on a limb by saying the final Star Wars flick will be number one, huh?
Old 04-14-05, 11:43 PM
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I don't think Episode III will make 400 million, unless it's just a knockout. I've been saying from day one that it will make more than AOTC, but less than TPM. I think somewhere in the 350 million dollar range, give or take 10 million.

I also agree with Nitro that their Batman prediction is low. I don't think it's going to get anywhere near 300 million. But I'd say somewhere around 200-225 million.

War of the Worlds estimate is also low. I'm gonna say 250+ million on that film.
Old 04-14-05, 11:57 PM
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Oh yeah I think Kingdom of Heaven will be a bomb. Troy didn't make that much domestically and that still Brad Pitt in it. I think War of the Worlds is gonna be huge maybe as big as Star Wars.
Old 04-15-05, 12:02 AM
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I think they're overestimating Madagascar by a huge amount.
Old 04-15-05, 12:16 AM
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I don't think Batman is going to be a huge blockbuster a la Spiderman. People will hear that it's more story driven than action driven, and it might turn some people off.
Old 04-15-05, 12:35 AM
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"Batman Begins" will need good word-of-mouth. The franchise has been poisoned by the last couple of movies.

"Revenge of the Sith" will probably do close to what AOTC did, possibly a bit more.

I think "Fantastic Four" will flop. The last few films based on Marvel properties have been shitty, and that will come back to bite them in the ass.

Christ, I don't even know what "Madagascar" and "Stealth" are about, who's in them, or who directed them.
Old 04-15-05, 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Josh-da-man
"Batman Begins" will need good word-of-mouth. The franchise has been poisoned by the last couple of movies.

"Revenge of the Sith" will probably do close to what AOTC did, possibly a bit more.

I think "Fantastic Four" will flop. The last few films based on Marvel properties have been shitty, and that will come back to bite them in the ass.

Christ, I don't even know what "Madagascar" and "Stealth" are about, who's in them, or who directed them.
I'm with you on all four points.
Old 04-15-05, 12:58 AM
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Premiere is always off on their predictions. Remember, these are the people who said BASEketball and Small Soldiers would be two of the biggest films of 1998.

DreamWorks shot themseleves in the foot with the release of Madagascar. If they're even expecting a Shark Tale-like gross, they're mistaken. Not only does it have to go against the already opened Episode III, but it's also going against Sandler's The Longest Yard. The Longest Yard WILL gross $100 million first. Madagascar may take in $100 million, but I don't know how much more. Not every CGI film can be a massive, blockbuster hit (as we've seen with Robots).

War of the Worlds could be a smash or it could be a moderate success. Spielberg's last huge action film (Minority Report) didn't do as well as it was originally predicted. But War of the Worlds' only competition will consist of Bewitched (which will be in it's second week of release), a fucking Lindsay Lohan vehichle (will also be in it's second week), and a Martin Lawerence childrens' film. From the looks of it, the ball is in Spielberg's court (especially with the teasers).

Batman Begins is going to need positive word of mouth to get rid of the negative stigma that Batman and Robin brought upon the franchise. If Nolan hits the film out of the park (like Memento and unlike Insomnia), the film could do massive numbers.

Kingdom of Heaven seems about right if it does the same business Troy and Gladiator did.

I have a better chance of banging both Hilton sisters tomorrow morning than Stealth grossing more than $50 million.

If word of mouth is good, Cinderella Man can be the hit drama film of the summer.

Fantastic 4 will tank. Or I hope it tanks. BECAUSE I WANT THAT NO TALENTED FUCKING HACK TIM STORY TO LEAVE HOLLYWOOD.

Thank you. I'm done.
Old 04-15-05, 04:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel
Fantastic 4 will tank. Or I hope it tanks. BECAUSE I WANT THAT NO TALENTED FUCKING HACK TIM STORY TO LEAVE HOLLYWOOD.
So you'll be the first in line opening night?

And, i'll have to disagree with you Terrell [and not just 'cuz you never answered my email ]. There are a lot of factors with Episode III that will help it gross more than the first two. First, the fact that it will be the very. last. Star Wars. flick. EVER. There will be a nostalgia factor that'll kick in for longtime fans...even Rivero! Secondly, this flick should contains TONS and TONS of action. That, hopefully, will offset George's clunky dialogue ["with thunderous applause", indeed]. C'mon, you should know that people like to see things blow up!
Old 04-15-05, 08:10 AM
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Some points:

1. I have not heard of 30% of the films there.
2. Star Wars will NOT make $400MM over the summer. That's insane. At best it will make about as much as Attack of the Clones. It will finish over $200MM easily.

Am I the only one that thinks Kicking & Screaming will top $100MM?
Old 04-15-05, 08:11 AM
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with thunderous applause
Hell man, I thought that was a great line. Perhaps you've forgotten "I hate sand......," have you not. That line is light years better than some of the love story dialogue in AOTC, not to mention very well delivered.

Though I still have to disagree. It won't make as much as TPM. TPM was the first Star Wars film in 16 years. This will have been the third Star Wars film in the last 6 years. Yes, it being the last film and having Vader will just help it make more coin. But I don't think it will help it make 431 million coins. My guess still stands at 350 million. Though it wouldn't surprise me if Lucas pisses off a lot of parents and families with this one. I have no doubt you will get some "Lucas turned his back on families" with this one, just like Lucas got the "he turned his back on serious sci-fi fans" after he went from THX 1138 to Star Wars. Poor Lucas, he can't win for losing. Though I'm sure he can get through the day with 3-4 billion in the bank.

Kingdom of Heaven seems about right if it does the same business Troy and Gladiator did.
I don't think it will do Gladiator numbers. The lead in KoH sucks compared to the lead in Gladiator. I also don't think it will be the crowd pleaser Gladiator was.
Old 04-15-05, 08:49 AM
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I know he isn't a favorite of many posters, but I think Michael Bay's The Island should be on the list. He always manages bring people into the theaters.
Old 04-15-05, 08:54 AM
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I'll look at this from my own perspective

Star Wars Ep.III - No interest in this. I still haven't seen the last two. Of course, it will likely be #1 for the year.

Madagascar - I don't like these hip, star-studded cartoons. It will probably make a zillion dollars.

War of the Worlds - Looks excellent, especially when they demolished the Bayonne Bridge, very close to where I used to live. Another big hit.

Batman Begins - Looking forward to this one too. A whole new franchise. Should be a big hit.

Kingdom of Heaven - No interest from me, nor do I predict any from the audience.

Mr/Mrs Smith - No interest.

Charlie/Chocolate Factory - This is probably my most anticipated movie. It should be huge, unless it's too weird & dark for most people.

Stealth - Nope. Looks stupid.

Fantastic 4 - I'll need to wait and see on this one. I'd like to see it, but I'm afraid it will be too cheesy.

Cinderella Man - Feh.
Old 04-15-05, 08:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Nagheenanajar
I know he isn't a favorite of many posters, but I think Michael Bay's The Island should be on the list. He always manages bring people into the theaters.

True, but has always had Jerry Bruckheimer as his producer, and Bruckheimer knows, for the most part, how to please the audience. Bay can just blow stuff up.

It seems like they are playing it safe by placing SW:ROTS at the #1 spot. Also, judging from their list, it seems like not many movies are going to make back their budget domestically.
Old 04-15-05, 09:01 AM
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I think they're low on FF. Even the Hulk managed to pull in $130m.
Madagascar can go either way but I think $240m is high. Curious about War of the Worlds. Depends on how depressing/uplifting it is.
Old 04-15-05, 09:15 AM
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I think Madagascar is high by $40m, War of the Worlds is low by $20m and Batman is low by $30m.
Old 04-15-05, 09:37 AM
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I'm a big Star Wars fan,but I don't think it will make 400 mill. It might be too dark for people to see again and again with crisp Anakin and such. 2, for the people who didn't like the first two, they will find the dialogue and acting to be just as bad. 3, there's going to be back lash that suited Vader is only in the last 5 mintues. With that said, I'll probablly see it 20 times or as many as I can.
Old 04-15-05, 09:50 AM
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Madagascar can go either way but I think $240m is high.
I'm guaranteeing that this film won't get beyond 160 million dollars.

for the people who didn't like the first two, they will find the dialogue and acting to be just as bad.
Not sure I totally agree with that. Yes, there will be some typical Lucas dialogue in a few scenes, but nothing even approaching the terrible dialogue in the AOTC love story. As for the acting, from what I've seen it will be better, more emotional and convincing. It's not going to be night and day difference, but it will be better.

Last edited by Terrell; 04-15-05 at 09:54 AM.
Old 04-15-05, 09:51 AM
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I think all those numbers are on the high side. Batman is the only that feels about right to me.
Old 04-15-05, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by fumanstan
...Batman is the only that feels about right to me.
I dont think so, cause I really don't think there is a huge audience for yet another Batman movie (me included).

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