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Old 09-06-04, 04:35 PM
  #176  
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It's history was it went up at most 3 points. I blame the down time of the site.
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Old 09-06-04, 06:37 PM
  #177  
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Originally posted by Jackskeleton
It's history was it went up at most 3 points. I blame the down time of the site.
figure most people sold which would bring it back down 3 points. then if they also shorted it. The stocks drops another 3 points. A few more jump on the falling stock and it drops over 7 points.

Now we will see what the rebound is like. It has come up some already. So the question is if people start reversing the trend and drive it up or not.

Remember Italian Job 2. It yo-yoed a bunch for days before settling down at a lower price than the IPO.
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Old 09-06-04, 07:42 PM
  #178  
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Well it usually goes like this.

Stock opens at reset.. goes up about 2, 3 points. during the morning (which was closed off because site was down) the stock starts yo yoing because people jump off and on during the final moments of commish free zone and the stock shoots up again once all the halts jump back up.

I figure since the last zone of commisson free zone wasn't there it caused a little bit of a screwiness to the whole system.
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Old 09-07-04, 07:06 PM
  #179  
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It's certainly been an interesting weekend, with the exchange being down for a while - I didn't get a chance to cover my shorts and free up cash. I'm waiting on the delists now and looking around for some bargains.

Here's one every portfolio can afford - ANYMR. It made almost half a mil in its fourth weekend, to bring its total to $1.41M and its current price is $1.81, so you're making profit for 7 weeks.
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Old 09-07-04, 08:32 PM
  #180  
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Originally posted by MrN
It's certainly been an interesting weekend, with the exchange being down for a while - I didn't get a chance to cover my shorts and free up cash. I'm waiting on the delists now and looking around for some bargains.

Here's one every portfolio can afford - ANYMR. It made almost half a mil in its fourth weekend, to bring its total to $1.41M and its current price is $1.81, so you're making profit for 7 weeks.
Thanks for the anymr tip.
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Old 09-08-04, 10:26 PM
  #181  
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Anytime, GC.

Any thoughts on the openers this week? Now that summer is over, I'm expecting a contraction of the box office, so I have a lot of shorts going right now.

Re: RESE2 - I'm very skeptical about a $20M opening weekend - but since the first one made $40M and its a horror movie, I'm thinking it could do it. I'll settle for shorting the call.

I just hit $20M for the first time today. But I just know there's another WOPAD out there to put me in a tailspin.
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Old 09-08-04, 10:54 PM
  #182  
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Originally posted by MrN
Anytime, GC.

Any thoughts on the openers this week? Now that summer is over, I'm expecting a contraction of the box office, so I have a lot of shorts going right now.

Re: RESE2 - I'm very skeptical about a $20M opening weekend - but since the first one made $40M and its a horror movie, I'm thinking it could do it. I'll settle for shorting the call.

I just hit $20M for the first time today. But I just know there's another WOPAD out there to put me in a tailspin.
My gut says that RESE2 will do around $25 million opening weekend. The first one opened at $17 million and sequels usually do better than the original at first.

CELLU is tough. I think it might hit $10 million although who knows.

I will be staying away as usual unless I can buy in at a level i can not pass up.
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Old 09-09-04, 03:24 PM
  #183  
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Something curious - I notice on the Calendar that the movie adjusts are now going to be done with a 2.8 multiplier. So I guess I can't keep shorting everything after adjust and pick up some easy money.

edit to include link to official announcement: http://talk.hsx.com/announcements/po...33133.Antibody

Last edited by MrN; 09-09-04 at 03:27 PM.
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Old 09-09-04, 10:28 PM
  #184  
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Originally posted by MrN
Something curious - I notice on the Calendar that the movie adjusts are now going to be done with a 2.8 multiplier. So I guess I can't keep shorting everything after adjust and pick up some easy money.

edit to include link to official announcement: http://talk.hsx.com/announcements/po...33133.Antibody
It does not sound like much but it makes a difference.

I will jump on some if I think can make enough money. Now we need to think first
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Old 09-10-04, 10:27 AM
  #185  
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Since the early new halt time I figure we might as well do our gut check early.

Long RESE2 and Short CELLU.

I do not like to do the weekends ; however I am still too far behind Double Down in the STD so I am trying it to see if I can get lucky.
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Old 09-10-04, 10:48 AM
  #186  
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Longing both RESE2 and CELLU.
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Old 09-10-04, 11:35 AM
  #187  
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I dunno.. I don't think RESE2 will hit a price to make money. Right now it's going to need to make more than $23M to break even at $65.02 a share. R rated will keep numbers down also. Tough call for what may seem like very little money.
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Old 09-10-04, 12:13 PM
  #188  
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I'm staying away this weekend for the most part - I would have longed RESE2 if they had opened last weekend, but this weekend, I have my doubts.
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Old 09-10-04, 12:16 PM
  #189  
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One thing to consider about RESE2: the free ticket included with the new DVD of the first film is counted towards the weekend numbers.
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Old 09-12-04, 08:00 PM
  #190  
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well a slight adjust up is better than none

Now for the adjust down

How is everyone doing?
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Old 09-12-04, 09:28 PM
  #191  
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I went all in this weekend for the first time in a while and called both of them right , even if the adjust was slight I'll take it.

Like you I hope to make more by shorting it through adjust.

I can't wait for next weekend. I'm hoping Sky Captain will make some serious bank (though in my heart of hearts I know that is not likely, but c'mon it looks sooo cool). I hope the general public will help me with that prediction.
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Old 09-12-04, 09:35 PM
  #192  
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It wasn't much of a weekend to either get angry about or be happy about.
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Old 09-13-04, 01:20 AM
  #193  
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Originally posted by mano365
I went all in this weekend for the first time in a while and called both of them right , even if the adjust was slight I'll take it.

Like you I hope to make more by shorting it through adjust.

I can't wait for next weekend. I'm hoping Sky Captain will make some serious bank (though in my heart of hearts I know that is not likely, but c'mon it looks sooo cool). I hope the general public will help me with that prediction.
It should have more than 3000 theaters and it could open with a $25-30 million weekend,

I am leaning towards $30 million if the reviews are good.

Last edited by gcribbs; 09-13-04 at 01:29 AM.
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Old 09-13-04, 12:51 PM
  #194  
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Might think about shorting HOBIT as Time Warner just withdrew their bid for MGM. I rode it for a couple bucks as it looked like Time Warner was going to lock it this week, but a late bid by Sony for $5 billion seemed to force TW to walk.
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Old 09-13-04, 04:08 PM
  #195  
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Originally posted by gcribbs
It should have more than 3000 theaters and it could open with a $25-30 million weekend,

I am leaning towards $30 million if the reviews are good.
I saw Sky Captain this weekend at the Austin premiere hosted by AICN with Kerry Conran in attendence.

This was a very fun and cool movie that should appeal to the big geek audience. Of course the crowd was very atypical, but the audience did react with applause a few times in the film. Of course the big question is will anyone besides the geek audience care. Adult audience I'm not so sure... the serial-styled plot is silly and marginal at best, but of course that's not exactly the point. Where I'm thinking this film banks is in the kids market. There is basically zero objectionable material in the film
Spoiler:
(besides a humorous scene where our stars wake up not wearing clothes)
and the action is cool enough to appeal big time to the 13 and under set. I expect this to get rather positive reviews and I'm hoping will be in the high 20s for opening weekend.

I think it's touchy either way, but on the strength of what I saw this weekend I'm in for 10k shares and another 10k on the call.

Last edited by Mordred; 09-13-04 at 04:10 PM.
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Old 09-13-04, 04:59 PM
  #196  
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Originally posted by devilshalo
Right now it's going to need to make more than $23M to break even at $65.02 a share.
Can somebody explain this math to me?

Right now I'm sucking. I'm almost ready for a reset. Down 43% since I started.
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Old 09-13-04, 05:08 PM
  #197  
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Take the price of the stock right before the opening weekend and divide it by 2.8 and you'll get what it needs to make at the box office in order to make money.

I believe the stock halted at or around $65.02 a share, divide that by 2.8 and it comes to 23.22 or approximately $23.2M box office take. So if you thought RESIDENT EVIL2 was going to make more than $23 million, you go long and buy shares. If you thought it wouldn't make that much, you'd short it.

I didn't think it would do enough business either way to play it. However I am taking a loss since I shorted the call.
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Old 09-13-04, 05:46 PM
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Thanks. That will make things a good bit easier.
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Old 09-13-04, 06:35 PM
  #199  
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Something this week for some reason is telling me to long Mr. 3000. I don't know why but I think this will make $18-20 mill this weekend. I hope my gut feeling is right. I am also longing Sky Captain.

What are everyone elses feeling on these movies.

I hope this gamble pays off.
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Old 09-13-04, 06:57 PM
  #200  
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The trailer for Mr 3000 makes me think it can do well also. The track record of Disney says it is a short.

I can not decide yet.

I do think Sky Captain can hit the current price. I think it is a long at current prices.
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