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Friday Estimates for 04/09/04

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Friday Estimates for 04/09/04

Old 04-11-04, 12:59 AM
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The Alamo got the widest release of this weeks new releases, though it's still not in as many screens as Passions is.
Old 04-11-04, 01:07 AM
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Kill Bill will take next weekend without a doubt. With the release of the dvd on tuesday, it will strike the interest of those who are seeing it for the first time as well as those who are getting hyped for it.

Not to mention the bombardment of tv and radio time it's getting.
Old 04-11-04, 02:38 AM
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Originally posted by Charlie Goose
These numbers do not give the whole story, we need the per-screen averages to determine what is bombing.
The movie with the highest per-screen average (in terms of Friday's estimates) was Johnson Family Vacation.
Old 04-11-04, 02:49 AM
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Originally posted by scott shelton
That's not true at all.

There was far more competition last holiday.
What you said isn't true at all. Anyone that follows the box office on a regular basis knows this time of year is fairly weak for movie releases.

However, more people see movies in the winter holidays than this time of year since the weather is much better right now. Just because there is more competition doesn't mean less people will see a certain movie.

Last edited by Deftones, Esq; 04-11-04 at 11:38 AM.
Old 04-11-04, 02:59 AM
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Besides that, anyone who doesn't see that this weekend is crowded must be blind. it's sophmore time for last weeks fairly crowded line up mixed in with a LOT of new releases. This has got to be one of the most crowded weekends so far this year.
Old 04-11-04, 09:22 AM
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Kill Bill V2 will rule next weekend!
Old 04-11-04, 09:28 AM
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Originally posted by Jackskeleton
Besides that, anyone who doesn't see that this weekend is crowded must be blind. it's sophmore time for last weeks fairly crowded line up mixed in with a LOT of new releases. This has got to be one of the most crowded weekends so far this year.

...making the #1 showing by Passion in its 7th weekend all the more impressive.
Old 04-11-04, 10:27 AM
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Originally posted by Groucho
Looks like I have a meal for myself Monday after the final weekend estimates are in:



Only question left is: how should I prepare it?
Isn't that the bird that dined on eyeball in the movie?
Old 04-11-04, 10:45 AM
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Originally posted by Suprmallet
I think you're underestimating Kill Bill.
not really, the 1st film didnt do THAT well, and there were a LOT of people that say it who responded with a "what IS this crap?" and/or walked out early. Only people interested in seeing KB2 are those that saw and liked KB1, which as stated wasnt a lot of people. I saw KB1 and didnt see anything special about it... it had lots of hype I guess. I might see KB2 on dvd rental when it comes out... maybe. The Punisher is gonna rock. KB2 will have all the QT fanboys there the first night/weekend so maybe it will do ok then, but the Punisher should do juuust fine.

j
Old 04-11-04, 10:51 AM
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Originally posted by jekbrown
not really, the 1st film didnt do THAT well
It opened at #1.
Old 04-11-04, 11:31 AM
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Yep, with $22 million in its first weekend. If that was all Hellboy could open with, with it's MUCH larger marketing push than Punisher, there's no way in hell this R-rated comic movie is going to pass that mark. KB2 will handily wipe the floor with Punisher next weekend.
Old 04-11-04, 11:36 AM
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Ouch, looks like The Alamo is a bomb. $9 mil for a $110 mil movie.
Old 04-11-04, 12:00 PM
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Only people interested in seeing KB2 are those that saw and liked KB1
I remember a lot of J6P's dissing Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring when it came out as the film just "ended" the way it did. Then I remember The Two Towers making more money.

With the VHS and DVD being released 3 days before Volume Two comes out, Kill Bill might make more money it's opening weekend than Volume One. Then again, Matrix Revolutions and Back to the Future III (two other sequels released six months right after their previous film in their sagas) pretty much did crappy compared to their first sequel, so who knows.

But Lions Gate scheduling The Punisher on the same day another "revenge" flick comes out was their stupidest move ever. If they would've waited a week or two, they could easily get #1 that weekend. But with Kill Bill: V2 coming out, it's going to be a hard fight.
Old 04-11-04, 01:09 PM
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Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
[B]I remember a lot of J6P's dissing Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring when it came out as the film just "ended" the way it did. Then I remember The Two Towers making more money.
Yeah but you're comparing a PG-13 movie to an R-rated one. And I think there are a lot of fantasy geeks than there are QT fan boys and more so were "converted" after fellowship. I seriously doubt there were THAT many new "converts" to QT after Volume 1.
Old 04-11-04, 01:58 PM
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Isn't anyone going to comment on HELL BOY?
This is it's 2nd week, does it look like a bomb or what?
Old 04-11-04, 02:03 PM
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Originally posted by wm lopez
Isn't anyone going to comment on HELL BOY?
This is it's 2nd week, does it look like a bomb or what?
Um...huh?

It's made about $30 million total, which is what they were expecting for the film. It was number one last weekend, it's been getting mostly good reviews, how is it a bomb?
Old 04-11-04, 02:31 PM
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Originally posted by wm lopez
Isn't anyone going to comment on HELL BOY?
This is it's 2nd week, does it look like a bomb or what?
It's still holding it's ground while taking the typical % drop of a comic book second week. A bomb? Hardly.
Old 04-11-04, 02:52 PM
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Originally posted by wm lopez
Isn't anyone going to comment on HELL BOY?
This is it's 2nd week, does it look like a bomb or what?
Not a bomb at all. It and Passion are the only two movies that had anything respectable this weekend. Why focus on this film and ignore the HUGE bomb that is The Alamo?
Old 04-11-04, 03:02 PM
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Wow, Johnson Family Vacation did amazingly well. I've only seen a couple of commercials for it here and there and its not even playing on a lot of theaters.
Old 04-11-04, 03:13 PM
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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...ovies_eo/13880

"Passion" Rises. "Alamo" Falls
51 minutes ago
By Bridget Byrne

A resurrection happened, and The Alamo was forgotten.

As expected the Easter weekend restored The Passion of the Christ to the top of the domestic box-office. Mel Gibson's brutal depiction of Jesus' stages of the Cross earned an estimated $17 million and crucified all competition.

The Alamo, the latest depiction of an epic incident in America's land-grabbing history, fired blanks, only managing a $9.2 million debut, tied for third place with road trip yucker Johnson Family Vacation, which had debuted Wednesday.

Even more woeful was Bruce Willis (news)' hit man comedy sequel The Whole Ten Yards, which fell way short, touching down in eighth place with just $6.7 million. Ella Enchanted, the romantic comedy aimed at 'tweens enchanted few, debuting with only $6.1 million in ninth place, while the more sophisticated and riskier youth comedy The Girl Next Door only managed to open in tenth place with $6 million.

Overall the dud debuts of all these movies meant no records were set for an Easter weekend. The $99.9 million grossed by the top 12 movies was a drop of 12.5 percent from last weekend, although 13 percent up on the same weekend last year.

Climbing back up from fifth place last week - a gain of 61 percent - the controversial and hugely profitable The Passion of the Christ, an R rated Newmarket release that has now earned $354.8 million to register as the eighth best domestic grossing film ever, easily topped last week's major attraction, the comic book monster hero tale Hellboy, which dropped 52 percent to earn $11.1 million in second place, bringing its two week haul to $41 million.

Despite being on the top rung The Passion of the Christ wasn't able to nail the best per site average for wide releases. Its $5,274 average at 3,240 sites - 169 less than last weekend - wasn't as much as the $6,986 for Johnson Family Vacation. That PG-13 Fox Searchlight release, which crams a family headed by Cedric the Entertainer into what, according to most critics, is an unfunny journey, has earned $11.6 million since getting into gear at 1,317 sites mid-week.

Disney's PG-13 rated The Alamo, the do or die battle for Texas saga, with Billy Bob Thornton (news) as Davy Crockett and Jason Patric (news) as Jim Bowie, besieged 2,609 sites, where it averaged $3,526.

Warners PG-13 The Whole Ten Yards in which Matthew Perry (news) as the nebbish neighbor is re-teamed with Willis' de-mobbed mobster, averaged just $2,532 at 2,654 sites, only about half the business for the stars' The Whole Nine Yards, which averaged $4,719 when it debuted in February 2000 with a fairly successful $13.7 million, since when it has grossed $57.2 million.

Miramax's PG rated Ella Enchanted, a song and dance version of the eternal fable with Anne Hathaway (news) as a modern day victim of a fabulously wicked stepmom (Joanna Lumley (news)), twirled into 1,931 sites averaging $3,163.

Fox's R rated The Girl Next Door, in which earnest but love struck high schooler Emile Hirsch tries to save neighbor Elisha Cuthbert (news) from her life in porn, was popped into 2,147 sites where it averaged $2,795.

In limited release Miramax's R rated I'm Not Scared, an Italian import about a young boy's discovery of a kidnapping, averaged a promising $12,750 at each of its four sites, for $51,000.

Final figures will be released Monday. For now Exhibitor Relations Inc, the company that tallies the studios' estimates, ranks the top 10 as follows:


1. The Passion of the Christ, $17 million
2. Hellboy, $11.1 million
3. Johnson Family Vacation, $9.2 million
3. The Alamo, $9.2 million
5. Walking Tall, $8.3 million
6. Home on the Range, $8.1 million
7. Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed, $8 million
8. The Whole Ten Yards, $6.7 million
9. Ella Enchanted, $6.1 million
10. The Girl Next Door, $6 million


To all ye naysayers!

Chris
Old 04-11-04, 03:15 PM
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Originally posted by wm lopez
Isn't anyone going to comment on HELL BOY?
This is it's 2nd week, does it look like a bomb or what?
Um, whatever. since you were the same fella ALREADY calling it a "bomb" last week when it opened at #1, I think it's far more clear you have some kind of problem wth Hellboy than that Hellboy was a huge bomb. It was never going to be a $200 million hit, and considering it will easily make back its budget it's definitely a profitable flick.
Old 04-11-04, 03:40 PM
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41 million in 2 weeks is pretty good. It should be in the top 5 next weekend as well.
Old 04-11-04, 04:37 PM
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HELLBOY dropped 52 % in it's 2nd week!
Last year everybody was calling the HULK a bomb because it dropped over 50 % in it's 2nd week.
Come on fellas.
When the STAR WARS prequals didn't meet people's liking they were bashing Lucas for years and praising THE MATRIX.
When the 3rd MATRIX sequal came out and was not liked by their fans.
They sure as hell didn't give the producers the bashing Lucas still gets. It's like it's swept under the carpet let's move on.
Old 04-11-04, 04:40 PM
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Hellboy was never expected to do the kind of success that Star Wars, The Matrix, or The Hulk did. In fact, getting to number one and grossing as much as it did in its first weekend caught a lot of people off guard.

A bomb is apartly about expectation, partly about expense. People expected The Hulk to do hundreds of millions of dollars of business, and cost a lot more to make than Hellboy. When it dropped off so heavily, it was a big failure. Hellboy cost less and didn't expect to do so much, so its level of profit right now is good. It's not a bomb. They're already talking about making a sequel.

It's not a bomb. Get over it.
Old 04-11-04, 04:43 PM
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Kinda surprised at the low numbers this week (for all films) but not at all surprised Passion returned to #1. I still think they will adjust Passion's Sunday gross upward tomorrow but judging by Friday, I expected it to best 20 mil for the weekend. We'll see when the actuals come out tomorrow...

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