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Predictions on ROTK's opening weekend B.O. take

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Predictions on ROTK's opening weekend B.O. take

Old 12-05-03, 06:33 PM
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Predictions on ROTK's opening weekend B.O. take

Just getting it out of the way.
Old 12-05-03, 06:52 PM
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i'll go first:

$96 million

but the overall gross will top $400 million domestically.
Old 12-05-03, 07:14 PM
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84 mil.
Old 12-05-03, 07:22 PM
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5 day or 3 day?

3 day: $80 million, but only because 5 day will eat a little into it.


Final US take: $425 million
Old 12-05-03, 07:23 PM
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Considering neither of the first two came close to the opening numbers predicted above, ROTK won't either. If it's true ROTK is 3 hours and 40 minutes, box office will take some hit. It will still make a lot, but there will be far fewer showings because of the length. Almost 4 hours is too long in my opinion, but it's not my movie. Hell, 3 hours is pushing it, and neither of the first two films were 3 hours.

Either way, not a chance that ROTK will make 400 million.

My predictions:

Opening weekend - 65 million
Domestic gross - 300 million.
Old 12-05-03, 07:26 PM
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Originally posted by Terrell
Considering neither of the first two came close to the opening numbers predicted above, ROTK won't either. If it's true ROTK is 3 hours and 40 minutes, box office will take some hit. It will still make a lot, but there will be far fewer showings because of the length. Almost 4 hours is too long in my opinion, but it's not my movie. Hell, 3 hours is pushing it, and neither of the first two films were 3 hours.

Either way, not a chance that ROTK will make 400 million.

My predictions:

Opening weekend - 65 million
Domestic gross - 300 million.
So you're saying the third movie will do WORSE than the first two? (re domestic gross) - I don't think so.
Old 12-05-03, 08:54 PM
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The film is 3h 20m with credits---there will not be reduced showings and the theatre count will if anything be higher than the previous two.

I don't know about just the weekend, but for the five-day take I predict (gasp...I never would have dared say this for the first two films) $115 million.

I also predict at least $375 million domestic, more (but not a great deal more) if there are major Oscar wins, which I do not expect.

Seeing as how the first two have come increasingly close, I think total worldwide could cross $1 billion.
Old 12-05-03, 09:28 PM
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Total Domestic: 432 or 371 million.

1st Day - 25 or 36 million.
3-Day - 68 million.
5-Day - 101 million.

Total Foreign - Possibly over a billion --- 1.12 billion.
Old 12-05-03, 10:05 PM
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3 day: $65mil
5 day: $100mil

Overall: $300-$400mil...could be anywhere...
Old 12-05-03, 11:57 PM
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The film is 3h 20m with credits---there will not be reduced showings and the theatre count will if anything be higher than the previous two.
If the film is at least a half an hour longer or more than the first two film, there definitely will be fewer showings in a 24 hour period. Do the math. It may even do more than TTT, but it's not going to do 61 million more.

Because of the length of the film, coupled with the fact that neither of the first two films came close to 400 million, this one won't either.

We'll see who is right.
Old 12-06-03, 11:02 AM
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100 million 5 day and 500 million domestic total, plus it beats titanic for number 1 all time gross leader.

I can dream can't I
Old 12-06-03, 11:50 AM
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Originally posted by gcribbs
100 million 5 day and 500 million domestic total, plus it beats titanic for number 1 all time gross leader.

I can dream can't I
No chance...didn't that make something like 900 million domestically and 1.8 B worldwide? That's insane considering inflation since then...probably over 2B in today's dollars.
Old 12-06-03, 02:37 PM
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Originally posted by Hiro11
No chance...didn't that make something like 900 million domestically and 1.8 B worldwide? That's insane considering inflation since then...probably over 2B in today's dollars.
600 domestic, 1.2 bil overseas = 1.8 bil worldwide. I don't anyone is going to beat Titanic anytime soon.

But i lodge my bets that RoTK will be the second movie to have a billion dollar worldwide gross. That...and a 400 plus domestic. I think that's pretty safe to believe.
Old 12-06-03, 05:15 PM
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it aint gonna make $400mil domestically...I guarantee!
Old 12-06-03, 06:08 PM
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3 day: $68M
5 day: $102M
Old 12-06-03, 07:27 PM
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200 minute running time hurts it.

But...

1st Day: $33 Million (every possible show is sold out)
1st Weekend: $87 Million
1st 5 Days (17 Dec - 22 Dec): $130 million

By 1 January: $250 Million

Total by end of run and debut on DVD (May 04): $450 Million

One film to rule them all. Pete Jackson buys New Zealand in 2005.
Old 12-07-03, 05:13 AM
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Originally posted by QuiGonJosh
it aint gonna make $400mil domestically...I guarantee!
how so?

FOTR made $313

TTT made $340

ROTK is gonna make $400 million domestically, I guarantee!
Old 12-07-03, 08:09 AM
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whatever...its not gonna make $400mil...
Old 12-07-03, 01:15 PM
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I'm going to assume that it'll make 400 million domestically. You know everyone that saw the previous two will see this one.

It comes down to the people that love it, and go back to see it again and again; much like my geeky self. I saw Fellowship five or six times and Two Towers twice -- and plan to see Return of the King 7-10 times.
Old 12-07-03, 11:20 PM
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3 hours and 20 minutes?? Do they give us an intermission so we can go pee? heck I can barely last for a 2 hour movie
Old 12-08-03, 05:14 AM
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I doubt an intermission is gonna be necessary...Titanic was about the same running time...and no intermission...
Old 12-08-03, 10:00 AM
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Lowballers! RotK will have a $100 million opening weekend, and it's final domestic take will be $652 million. $2 billion worldwide.





Seriously though, opening somewhere around $70 million, and most certainly pushing the $400 million mark for domestic gross.

Brian
Old 12-09-03, 11:35 AM
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$40 million opening weekend
Old 12-09-03, 03:21 PM
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Fellowship of the Ring
$47,211,489 / 3 day F-S
$75,129,468 / 5 day W-S


The Two Towers
$62,007,528 / 3 day F-S
$102,046,212 / 5 day W-S


Guess:
Return of the King
$65,000,000
$105,000,000
Old 12-09-03, 06:05 PM
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IF ROTK were to win the Best Picture Oscar, it would definitely clear 400 million domestic, no problem. And it would definitely beat 1 billion worldwide.

Without the Oscar it will probably do marginally better than Two Towers, nearing $400 million.

An Oscar win adds alot of revenue to a films final take. Alot of movies add 50% to their final gross, in ROTK's case I would say about 20%, just cause this movie is just about as high profile as you can get.

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