BuckNaked2k

Iron_Giant

This is my 9th annual admitting I was WRONG...DVD have not died yet, to my surprise.

Not sure when DVD will 100% die, I have only bought 2 DVDs over the past 10 years or so...now, 4K is the only way I will go.

milo bloom

Target is always stocked with tons of DVDs. As long as places like that are stocking them then they’re gonna sell.
Moat folks are either fine with DVD or moved on to streaming.

Coral

When physical media 100% dies.

Josh-da-man

DVD will probably outlast blu-ray and UHD. It's more ubiquitous than either blu-ray or UHD, and backward compatible with both formats.

What I suspect we will see is a slow death for DVD/BR/UHD. We're already seeing blu-ray releases being scaled back with certain releases going DVD only. Blu-ray will still exist as a premium format for collectors and boutique labels like Shout/Scream, Arrow, and Criterion. UHD will be reserved mostly for new releases of big budget event films like superheroes, sci-fi, and action flicks.

Eventually there will be a big blockbuster movie that won't get a physical release and will only be available digitally. At which point, new releases will begin to transition away from physical media and become digital exclusives. Once the first domino falls, most likely Disney making something like Frozen 3 a Disney+ exclusive, it will probably take about two years for new releases to completely transition to digital (either sales or subscription streaming).

UHD will probably be the first casualty format, being the domain of new releases and select catalog titles. I'm not sure if the player base will be able to support the format as new releases transition to digital.

Blu-ray will continue to soldier on for catalog titles sold via boutique labels; we might even start to see some of the big budget digital exclusives start to get Shout/Criterion SEs a few years after they've been released digitally and made the rounds on cable. Collectors only. UHD might eventually take up the collectors torch, but I doubt it. Most UHD discs don't have any SE features, instead housing those on the included blu-ray disc.

DVD will become the new bargain bin filler. It will be, essentially, a disposable format that sells for cheap. At this point, all physical media will be dinosaurs. Blu-ray will be the choice for a dwindling number of film collectors, and DVD will be a junk format that sells crap for under $5. Effectively rentals you don't need to return for people without a decent internet connection.

morriscroy

.... or when hell freezes over.

Whichever comes first.

Alan Smithee

PhantomStranger

Studios plan to outsource the remaining physical media market to niche labels like Shout Factory and Kino Lorber.

morriscroy

... and Mill Creek for all the remaining dross

BuckNaked2k

PhantomStranger

DVD sales continue to drop.

WeeBey

Some more data:

- Peak DVD in the US was 2005 with $16.3 billion of revenue, in 2018 it was down to $2.2 billion.
- DVD sales declined more than 86% in the last 13 years.
- Peak Blu-ray was 2013 with $2.37 billion of revenue, in 2018 it was down to $1.8 billion.




The decade is almost up. It will be interesting to see what the next 10 years bring.

Michael Corvin

1983?

PerryD

and the scale in the graph is in billions, so 15,000 would be 15 Trillion dollars of business, about the same as the entire GDP of the US.

WeeBey

Hmm, 1983 should be 1996 but maybe the comma in the figures is European. Probably just sloppy.

orangerunner

Looking at that graph you can really see where the economy tanked between 2007 and 2009. After that it was a fairly gradual reduction year after year.

This time-frame was also the introduction of Blu-ray (post early-adopter phase), streaming and cheap HDTVs all of which probably contributed to consumers putting the pause on their standard-def DVD buying habits.

bruceames

It's actually surprising that DVD declined as slowly as it did, given all the forces that came against it after it peaked. Most people with an opinion back then assumed DVD would have been long gone by now.

Blu-ray itself I'm sure did not live up to sales projections. $2.37B peak is a small fraction of DVD's peak and still hasn't surpassed DVD in sales. Who could have predicted that?

Coral

A few of us actually predicted that - which wasn't really that hard to do. Of course, you're probably just making a joke since you've seen (and responded to) the posts in this threading predicting this.

DJariya

Disney + will cause Disney physical media sales to fall like a rock.

mattysemo247

I wouldn't necessarily say that. There are still plenty of people that want physical copies of the Marvel and Star Wars movies. I'm more curious about the animated movies though, because I could see those taking a hit.

bruceames

Yes, would have been easy to predict back in 2010 or 2011 when this thread started, as Blu-ray's market share was growing at an anemic rate. I was referring to predictions back in 2008, after the format war ended. There was a lot of optimism back then. Anyway, nice prediction.

WeeBey

I wonder what peak UHD Blu-ray will look like and when we can expect it.

Shannon Nutt

I was just thinking I'm not going to buy the Star Wars movies in Ultra 4K now. It's also going to greatly curb my digital purchases on Vudu, which may be why Walmart is shopping it around, looking to sell.

If Warners follows suit with a bunch of UHD versions on HBO Max, I may just retire from physical media and use that $$$ for these streaming services.

We all talked about Disney + being the "Netflix killer", but it's going to kill physical media first.

bruceames

I wonder as well. Probably peak at well under $1 billion and within the next 2-3 years is my guess. I thought it would overtake Blu-ray within 10 years (which I said over 3 years ago), as Blu-ray continues to decline, but I'm not so optimistic now. A lot of content is coming out as far as catalogs are concerned, which is a good sign. But new release market share isn't increasing as much as I thought it would.

bruceames

Certainly not going to help. Physical media will always be around for the collectors and video/audiophiles, or just people who don't want to depend on movies being on servers or having an internet connection.

Furthermore, assuming Disney waits a few months for their physical titles to sell before putting them on their streaming service, that will ensure more sales to people who don't want to wait. I don't think Disney wants to undermine physical sales any more than necessary either, as their movies are easily the best sellers over the other studios.