bruceames

UHD BD may not "take the world by storm", but it will certainly do better than the horrible job Blu-ray did at "taking over" from DVD. I believe it's going to have a higher physical market share than 35% in ten years. But then that bar is set so low that it would be hard not to. So I think it will be much higher than that.

Coral

Yikes. Only 65 titles in 6 months? Anyone know how many BDs were released in the US in its first 6 months?

Prepare to be greatly disappointed.

Adam Tyner

Unless I'm miscounting, blu-ray.com lists 110 from June 20th through November 14th.

One difference this time around is that Blu-ray was pretty catalog-heavy at launch and a bit more eclectic (say, Magnolia Films and all the HD concert releases), while UHD BD is largely day-and-date releases or catalog titles that tie into a recent theatrical release. Aside from Shout Factory, no one outside of the largest studios have dove into UHD BD in the U.S. yet.

Alan Smithee

When they start putting out porn on UHD then it'll have more of a chance- but again, as long as it doesn't have 3D capability it's a half-baked format. Funny that Sony has started including the UHD and 3D Blu-Rays together, so you have your choice of higher res 2D or lower res 3D. I know which one I'd watch first. (And if you haven't seen 3D porn, you're missing out! )

Alan Smithee

I liked this response to the Variety article:

"Hey Studios — I will NEVER buy a digital copy of a movie. Give it to me on physical media or take a hike. When President Trump turns off the internet, I can still watch my Michaey Bay blu-rays. Digital copies can kiss my butt."

Josh-da-man

Porn isn't a factor in home video anymore. It's almost all streaming now, either through free sites like pornhub or subscription sites.

Which makes sense, since most porn viewers are just looking for a quick way to rub one out. The online selection of available smut is staggering, with literally tens of thousands of scenes out there, offering more variety than the five scenes on a typical porn DVD.

Blu-ray porn never caught on, and I suspect UHD disc-based porn will be virtually nonexistant.

orangerunner

I think the studios have realized they have milked the catalogue titles as best they can in physical form. Blu-ray has been as bust, sales-wise, for most non-event catalogue titles.

I can see UHD going forward with new releases and maybe adding a few high-profile catalogue titles like Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Jaws, Apocalypse Now, Godfather, Lawrence of Arabia, Back to the Future etc.

AaronSch

Oh God, here we go again...should we just repeat all the previous posts? Like I said before, a higher market share of a much smaller pie is a rather shallow victory. No, actually it is no victory at all in real dollars. If it's gonna take 10 years, then give up now 'cause technology will likely move far faster than UHD sales.

And I would argue that the titles released on HD DVD should also be considered as well as HD DVD sales numbers when analyzing the launch success of "high definition" vs. UHD. The UHD format doesn't have a prayer at a time when consumers are rapidly abandoning physical media and the studios are licensing out their catalogs. It's wishful thinking that the studios are then going to turn around and dig deep in their pockets to do 4K scans of the thousands of titles already on DVD and Blu-ray with a shrinking audience. I just gotta laugh at those who keep trying to sell that notion—it's a pipe dream. The format is out there but even new catalog titles like the Universal Monster collections and "American Werewolf in London" were not announced for UHD. The studios are not engaged on any level really.... Hell, Disney has given 3D more consideration than UHD with the release of "Star Wars: The Force Awakens." I thought 3D was dead and UHD was the savior of physical media? Evidently Disney feels there are more dollars to be made this Christmas with the 3D version! I'd be pissin' angry if I had shelled out the big bucks for all the equipment only to be rewarded with a rather weak selection of movies.

Bingo. That's the rational view and the reason why I am happy to continue growing my Blu-ray collection rather than blowing $30 on a single title. During the recent Deep Discount sale, I added another 26 Paramount Blu-ray titles to my collection for around $152. That money would buy me maybe 5 or 6 UHD?—Ummmm no thank you. I recently had a brief exchange with a guy as I was treasure hunting at a local reseller, Zia Record Exchange. He was compelled to let me know that Blu-ray was now obsolete. I had an armful of titles and he had nothing so I asked him where the UHD section was....there isn't one....yes we have no bananas...

PhantomStranger

Cheap monthly streaming packages are slaughtering digital sell-through levels.

Millennials have grown up with digital media and have little interest in owning it with cheap streaming content filling their time.

Adam Tyner

I completely agree, although I do hope that maybe folks like Criterion, Olive, Arrow, Synapse, Blue Underground, Kino Lorber, Shout/Scream Factory, etc. will pick up at least some of that slack (although I'd expect it to be microscopic compared to what we're seeing now).

It's unfortunate that those of us who are excited about owning a film released more than a few years ago are in a tiny, tiny minority now.

Bear in mind, though, that:

1) Studios may still do plenty of high resolution scans of their films for archival purposes, if nothing else.

2) UHD is still UHD, regardless of if it's streaming, broadcast, VOD, paid downloads, or on a disc. With that many distribution platforms, there'll be plenty of 4K scans regardless. I guarantee you that the overwhelming majority of the 4K scans that've already been done were not scanned with UHD BD expressly in mind. (I mean, I'm sure it's a consideration, but it's not the primary motivator.) I mean, Maniac Cop 2 has been scanned/remastered in 4K. It's not an exotic thing. I wouldn't expect 4K remasters to be anywhere nearly as prevalent as 1080p/2K remasters have, but it also wouldn't surprise me for it to become standard practice (or close enough to it) in the not-too-distant future.

Eh, early adopters are used to it. Speaking from personal experience, it was tough to find more than a handful of worthwhile HD DVDs in its early months too.

Eh, people were seething about the exact same thing about DVD vs. HD DVD/Blu-ray during the format war days. Apples-to-apples, the price difference between a newly released Blu-ray disc and its UHD BD equivalent is a few bucks.

big e

Were any sales numbers ever released for digital? I'd kinda like to see those. I have a hunch sales weren't that great, despite the push from the studios.

jjcool

Your percentages are market share, correct?
Aren't total disc sales way down this year over last? So blue ray has a bigger chunk of a smaller pie, and may possibly have sold less total units than last year?

Edit: and I see Aaron has already asked this. So, basically, what he said.

bruceames

The DEG Report releases them quarterly. Here is the link to the latest spending chart.

Here is a link to their site and to other spending charts.

The DEG calls digital sales EST (Electronic Sell-Thru). So far this year it is up only 6.43%. Last year it was up 18.1%. In 2014 is was up 30.41% and in 2013 it was up 47.12%. So you can see the trend here, that if continued, will result in negative growth within the next year or two. And then it will be in the same boat as physical.

bruceames

Overall disc sales are down 6.3% this year (look at the top row of my table above). The 36.3% is the Blu-ray market share against DVD. The 9.3% is the growth Bru-ray has had so far over last year. In other words, Blu-ray has sold 9.3% more in revenue than it did last year.

Units are up as well (in the same ballpark).

jjcool

I wonder if that's part of the reason that blue ray never caught on as much as dvd did, and why uhd will never catch on. Both VHS and dvd had a very big push from porn. Now, as you said, porn has mostly gone to digital platforms.

slop101

As always, watch for what porn and Disney cartoons are doing, and that will be the prevalent media-method of consumption, which right now looks to be going towards streaming. We just need ISPs to step up their game; better/faster bandwidth and a better price.

BuckNaked2k

No, he qualified it correctly, "...a higher physical market share". The physical market will certainly be a much smaller pie, so it's not inconceivable that UHD could dominate that small market.

Coral

I think/hope you're joking about porn.

Of all the segments of physical media that's dying off, nothing is doing that quicker than porn. Do they even still release porn on DVD? I can't see anyone wanting to buy a porno on DVD/BD/etc when all that stuff (and MUCH more) is available online at your fingertips. Then again, I never understood of paying for porn regardless of where you get it.

Coral

Even with a HUGE drop in DVD and BD sales, I still can't see UHD having a greater market share over either. UHD will be taking the bronze.

EDIT: I really would love to see the sales number for UHD-BD titles. I bet they're alarmingly low.

BuckNaked2k

See we shall...see we shall.

AaronSch

True, but let's keep the conversation on PHYSICAL MEDIA. I have no doubt that what is available via streaming, download or broadcast will continue to improve as does the technology to view it. However, I'd wager that at least 3/4 of what is available on Blu-may will never make it to UHD as a physical format. The vast majority of consumers simply don't give a crap when it comes to incremental improvements in sound and image. When Twilight Time can't sell-out 3000 to 5000 copies of most titles online, even when on sale, then there isn't a prayer for UHD as a physical format. The argument made by some that UHD is a larger leap over Blu-ray than Blu-ray was over DVD is debatable. And even if it was true, it doesn't really matter. The Blu-ray copy of most films is likely the best version you will ever own physically.

Part of the problem is a near total absence of marketing. Ask the average shopper in stores what DVD or Blu-ray is and they will know...UHD—good luck. If it fails to catch fire soon, Best Buy will quietly remove it from its shelves or at least severely limit its presence in favor of things that sell. At that point it will be "out of sight, out of mind" except in the case of the home theater connoisseur—an extreme niche. I predict that autostereoscopic displays will have a far greater impact on consumers than UHD and it's right around the corner. When people walk into a store and see moving 3D images without the need for the glasses they will salivate on contact. That could create a resurgence in physical media...possibly.

jjcool

So they're selling a larger portion of an ever shrinking pie. Gotcha.

bruceames

Surprised this would be news as I thought it was common knowledge around here that the physical media pie is shrinking and has been for the last 10 years or so.

Coral

As I stated earlier in the thread, I'm looking at buying a 65" TV... and it looks like 4k is the way to go simply based on a wider selection. So I look into the HDR thing, and it appears only a few 4K TVs have "true HDR"... either the panels aren't 10-bit or they don't support all the HDR standards. And to top it off, the price of a 65" 4K TV with "true HDR" is minimum $3,000 CAD... but most go for $3,500 or more. Add 13% tax on top of that and you're getting close to spending $4,000.

The point of HDR is lost since so many people are getting burned buying 4K TVs that don't fully support it... or don't support it at all.

It's hard to justify the price when you can buy a solid 4K TV for $1,500-$2,000 instead and just watch BDs - which are about $15 CAD cheaper than their UHD equivalent (if there's anything you want to buy on UHD since the selection is extremely limited).

bruceames

Well Blu-ray supported 1080p and most HDTVs sold in 2006 were 720p. The 1080p TVs were very expensive still. I paid 2k for a 720p set only 2 months before HD DVD launched and then paid $2300 for a 1080p TV a year and a half later.

HDR is only one upgrade in the format (although the most important one). Since UHD has upgrades as well in color gamut and bit depth, you can't expect all of those pieces to fall into place on day one. Prices are falling fast though on HDR TVs. If you want a "true HDR" TV (that gets >1000 nits), then the best time to buy would be in spring when they are clearing out the 2016 models. The Vizio P doesn't quite meet the HDR standards but it does have Dolby Vision and they are reasonably priced. Not sure if they are sold in Canada yet though.