Rammsteinfan

I abandonded DVD pretty much altogether now for BD's and as long as BD sticks around long enough to get me great copies of SW and Indy then ill be happy and then it can die or be replaced by the next best thing.

fumanstan

I was going to say the same; if people are already passing on Blu-ray because they don't see a noticeable difference in quality, the video quality in digital downloads aren't going to be a deciding factor.

PopcornTreeCt

In regards to the digital download argument, the only thing holding that back right now is download speeds. When we get to the point where everyone can download a 1 or 2 gig HD movie in just a couple minutes, then Blu-ray will go the way of the CD.

ds6161

My problem with everyone saying "digital download will wipe-out everything" is that with the current amount of high volume down-loaders (low) the providers are starting to put up download caps. What are they going to do when digital download becomes the norm??

Matthew Chmiel

Based off my cable connection, I could download a SD film from my AppleTV within 10 minutes. The AppleTV will start playing the film once more than ten percent of the download has been completed. Flip side, an HD film takes about 30 minutes. Most people could start watching instantly, others may wait to start watching. The technology is getting there to start right away, but when will a 1080p transfer for a two-hour movie be under 4-5GB? Even using current VC-1 or AVC codecs, you're still looking at 10GB plus at the current time.

The majority of people I know who have access to these services don't even (properly) take advantage of them. I know a slew of people who are members of Netflix that haven't even touched the streaming portion of the website. I will state that some of their HD content looks great when it comes to newer releases or television shows shot in HD, but only if you have the internet connection to properly play it. I wish Netflix would get access to more titles in HD that are able to (properly) show it off.

When it comes to On Demand, I have cable and maybe only access it every once in a blue moon. I have friends that use it quite often and I have friends and family that probably don't know that feature exists.

lamphorn

As more people get HDTV's and Blu players come down in price, it will become more popular. It's already pretty successful as a format.

Now, when they start coming out with 4K TV's, then I'd start worrying about the format.

pro-bassoonist

I beg to differ.

Certain catalog releases from the majors have not been selling convincingly. This does not mean that all catalog releases are selling poorly. Eagle Rock Entertainment and Criterion releases have been selling very well (thus, the reason why Criterion have moved to offer three releases per month in the Fall while Eagle Rock Entertainment have managed to adjust their price tags substantially).

Furthermore, with the exception of a couple of serious catalog titles - the most impressive ones being sold at a premium price (Casablanca and The Godfather) - the majors have not really released catalog titles that would move the market in the direction where you wish to see it (I assume you wish to see catalog titles in the Top 20 chart). This is neither surprising nor disappointing as your post implies. The big catalog releases started trickling to DVD in 2001. Until the arrival of the core catalog that sells well no matter what (examples: Star Wars, Indiana Jones films, Alien trilogy, Jaws, Back to the Future, Lord of the Rings, Beverly Hills Cop, Lawrence of Arabia etc), you really cannot expect to have the type of market effect you speculate about. If you had thought otherwise, I would have to say that you had unrealistic expectations. It is that simple.

As to new releases driving the format's growth, once again, this is perfectly normal. The balance I assume you wish to see with catalog titles released on Blu-ray would only arrive when many of the big core titles I mentioned above are released. They will drive consumers to start buying other catalog titles as well. This is how DVD matured and this is how BD will mature.

As to fears about Blu-ray not becoming mainstream or replacing DVD, fear not. DVD will be phased and Blu-ray will be the dominant format for years to come. Even the it does not make sense for Toshiba to release a BD player now folks are starting to realize what is in the making and where the studios wish to move the market.

I also expect to see the first Top 20 30+ market share for BD this Holiday season. We will probably see a much higher cumulative number for a new release as well (BD vs DVD).

Pro-B

Mr. Cinema

Eagle Rock and Criterion titles still cater to a much smaller group when compared to what the major studios have to offer. I don't think their sales are going to have any impact on how big of a growth BD achieves.

When DVD grew, there were no other alternatives to own a movie. When a BD title is released, a much cheaper DVD option is available. Are new BD owners going to be willing to spend $20 on a title they may already own on DVD?

I would like to see more catalog titles in the top 20. But without any real numbers, it's hard to say how successful one is even if it did make it. I wonder if we still have titles that only sell 1,000 copies be able to crack the top 20? Based on the week 12 Rounds was #1 (19,000 sold), I am guessing that is still happening.

Those seem like awfully low numbers for a format that has now been available for 3 years.

If studios aren't seeing strong sales from the catalog titles they have released, what incentive do they have to release more?

Paul_SD

For all intents and purposes, even several hours to download is 'near instantaneous'. What is the alternative? Waiting 2 days (or more) for the HD disc you want to become available and sent to you from Netflix? How about getting in the car and driving to Best Buy in the hope they have it sitting out on the rack? And then what happens in the winter, When the choice becomes putting up with a little download lead time, or less than perfect quality vs. bundling up, warming up the car, driving in the snow etc?

Convenience will trump quality almost every time in the market place.
Catalog sales are not setting the Bd world on fire, and each month is another grain of sand falling through the hourglass. Bd has a finite lifespan and relatively speaking, it won't be long before other market forces overtake it and make it irrelevant.

pro-bassoonist

Aside from The Dark Knight, which convinced many people to adopt Blu-ray, Criterion's output has been one of the main reasons why many have moved to HD. This being said, a large catalog of titles does not automatically mean a strong catalog of titles. Furthermore, the decline in SDVD catalog sales has been simply devastating for many distributors (hence, the reason why quite a few marquee names went belly-up). Serious SDVD catalog titles sold by the majors (consider the base) have also been very disappointing (Antonioni's Zabriskie Point is a great and very recent example). This also happens to be the reason why Warner introduced the on-demand DVD-R service. So, if looking for a BD phenomenon, it isn't there.

As far as BD catalog growth is concerned -- the recent reappearance of Transformers in the charts proves that there is movement. So, does Criterion's article in Home Theater Magazine about their BDs splitting the 40/50% sales ratio. Since the article was published, Criterion have moved from 2 titles per month to 3. I expect the upcoming Lord of the Rings, Aliens and a few other core catalog titles to strengthen this trend of higher sales % for catalog releases even more.

When DVD was growing, there was DIVX. If not for Warner, DVD would have had a much different maturation cycle. If not for Warner, I doubt DVD would have been a "owners" format. With other words, there were alternatives, you just did not know how seriously the studios considered them.

New BD owners do not all have to be old DVD owners (the heavy consuming 10% have to be). If you believe that BD will only grow if old DVD owners switched entirely then you aren't looking at the market from the right angle. Furthermore, I don't believe that the standard price for catalog BDs will be 20$. It will be lower, somewhere between where LionsGate pushed it and Warner wants it.

Everyone wants to see better catalog sales. The BD base has been growing steadily, even during these incredibly slow period, and there is absolutely no reason not to be convinced that there will be a strong increase in catalog sales in Q4 and 2010. For your information, a 20,000 - 40,000 DVD units sold at the moment is considered by many to be good and excellent.

I am sorry, I still have not changed my view on the format's history. The moment when Toshiba gave up is the moment when the format became available.

Revenue is consistently growing. Add to that the points I made earlier about core catalog titles, and it should be obvious where the market is heading. As usual, I would like to wait (again) and, if needed, comment at the end of the year. But you have my thoughts on record (again)

Pro-B

Gizmo

Isn't it possible Transformers was on the top of the Blu-ray list because the sequel hit Theaters (and was available at a nice price?)? And a year old catalog title being on top is not very good news for the format in general. It's too easy to see how one thing can influence people and really shows the beans the titles are moving.

Carry on.

Gizmo

The only numbers we typically get out for the first title (or maybe the DVD) and we just do the math to figure out the rest. You've probably seen the numbers - some great weeks, some poor weeks. Catalog titles really don't move much until they have a big sale and then we can see them move into the Top 20...which really shows how a single sale can influence the charts. If catalogs were selling well we wouldn't have Warner doing all these Premium sets, Warner/Sony with Digibooks, Universal forcing 3 packs, Fox/MGM bundling in DVDs, Paramount raising prices for their so-called Sapphire line etc.

Hopefully these Warner premium sets will bomb so they release the damn films like the rest.

Jericho

Something will replace Blu-Ray, the question is what and when. But here's a little solace: you really can't get any better picture or audio quality unless you have any enormous screen that can handle higher resolution. For that reason, if something else does come along in the short term, it won't be any better than what Blu-Ray currently offers.

darkside

We may also need better eyes. Considering how many people I still talk to that have a hard time seeing a major difference between BD and upconverted DVD I'm seriously doubting many will see a difference between BD and 4K. Not that many have screens large enough to really make the difference and I don't see 4K TVs with 60" or better screens being very affordable.

tylergfoster

I think people who say this underestimate how mind-blowingly convenient it will have to become before the world will really turn to digital downloads as a whole. People try to use the mp3 market as comparison, but I don't think that works. An mp3 takes a minute or two to download and is extremely easy to take with you (on an iPod or by burning to a CD). It takes much longer to download a movie and it's not as portable (since the vast majority of people watch movies on their TVs, then some on laptops, some on computers, and probably the fewest on portable devices -- and lots of those people probably used Digital Copies ripped from physical media and not actual downloading). Don't underestimate the desire of most people in the world to want to put a disc or tape in a player to watch a movie in the comfort of their own home.

On the other hand, in an age when all computers are easily connected to the internet, then I can see this succeeding. Then digital downloading will become a massive On Demand style library, and I can see people considering it to be viable. Even then, though, those who want special features are still likely to prefer physical media, to get the whole package.

hal9000

AMEN to that! I pretty much stopped buying all DVD's 2 years ago when I was waiting for the HD format war to play itself out. This past Christmas I made the jump to Blu... Purchased the Panny plasma, Panny Blu-Ray player... even a few Blu-Ray discs in the $20 range... Yikes!!! I was so conditioned to buying DVD's in the sub $10 range for so many years that paying over $20 for a movie left me feeling a little guilty.

So now I wait for Blu-Ray discs to hit the $10 level. I waited over 2 years (during the format war only buying a handful of DVDs), I have plenty of patience to wait for new Blu releases to come down to my price point. I feel the industry painted themselves into a corner with pricing, after years of training the public to pay more on release date vs. waiting a few months or more to get the same title for less. I think the majority of the consumers are choosing to wait for lower prices. I remember (years ago) waiting to get into Best Buy on Tuesday mornings with crowds of people just to purchase new DVD releases... do people still do this (I mean are the crowds still there)?

Honestly, I think the Blu-Ray picture quality is incredibly awesome, yet I find myself renting more (Redbox) and owning less, and I'm fine with that.

Qui Gon Jim

Great post. Insightful, realistic and not loaded with agenda.

Qui Gon Jim

This is precisely what I see happening. Ease of use will trump high quality for the large group of consumers, and that will eventually take the form of an on-demand type of service that will supplant DVD, while a dedicated core group of consumers will opt for physical media, and BD will be it for a long while.

BD will remain an enthusiast format rather than a mass market format, and there is nothing at all wrong with that.

Qui Gon Jim

Another great post. I completely agree with you , and I have said for a long time that the studios and retailers have de-valued movies to the point where in the minds of many even $15 is a lot for one movie.

Gizmo

$10 may be pushing cheap just a wee touch much in Blu-ray land...but we've certainly had deals around that price before. $15 is pretty much my limit now with the exception of some titles that I want to watch right away. But stuff like Wedding Crashers I'll wait for $12, not $20. Its something I will rewatch but won't need to purchase right away.

Sony titles I'm all but done with since Fry's seems to sell them in the $10-$13 range within a month of their release. I'm now conditioned to wait.

E Unit

Which I can attest to... Same goes for me though. Buying at prices more than $15 for new releases is rare for me. Or just wait patiently for a good sale at places like Fry's or even Amazon. I agree $10 releases will remain rare for BD's, except holiday sales. But I just got the Dirty Harry Collection for $57, so paying $11 and change is a price I'm am content with.

BuckNaked2k

I'm with you Gizmo.

That sub-$15 price point is my sweet spot. CH BOGOs, WBShop 3fer2 deals, BN.com Criterions at half-off, the rare Amazon sale.....all reasons not to jump early or pay ridiculous retail prices. When I see pre-order prices at $30+ like Hero and Willy Wonka, I just scoff.

Blu Man

Yeah, my friends don't care whether they watch DVD or Blu Ray but most of them hate downloads. Most people would have to sit at their computer to watch a downloaded movie and it cost almost as much as just buying the DVD. As of now, I don't think downloads are much of a threat to DVD and Blu Ray. Maybe somewhere down the line, but not now.

Gizmo

I can rent HD movies via Xbox 360/AppleTV/PSN for $4-$5 (for new releases - all that can be watched via a TV)...no new release DVD/Blu-ray costs that much. Do you mean they buy Digital Downloads?

Iron_Giant