jackson walker

http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7-10142913-82.html

Just in case you missed it.

darkside

From CNET the same site that buried the format before the holidays and its big December sales. Funny.

fumanstan

I like the last point.

Dan

Only if it's the same author.

The Bus

mod snip. removal of quoted material that is now deleted. -namja

I think it's pretty clear that Blu-ray will end up being somewhere between laserdisc and DVD.

Drexl

#2 is a good point. People seem to talk about downloads as if they are a single entity, but really there are all these different platforms. There is some talk about an upcoming standard (DECE or something like that), but it's probably years away.

RyoHazuki

Agreed. I don't know how people could think they'll just stop selling Blu-ray altogether. I also don't know how people could think Blu-ray will be as successful as dvd was.

jiggawhat

I think Netflix will end up being the leader in this space. There needs to be a clear cut leader in order for downloads to gain more traction.

So far, Blu-ray has exceeded what Laserdisc has done. Did any title sell a million copies in LD's heyday? Of course it's being compared to one of the highest grossing films ever, but it still says something about the long-term viability of the format.

pro-bassoonist

Which is the reason why downloads will be "future talk" for many, many years. There are too many parties there that wish to control the content-providers...

Pro-B

GenPion

This is a decent article at best but it is still nice to see some support for Blu-ray every once in a while instead of the usual doom and gloom.

lewisb73

Ive always thought Blu-ray would end up between laserdisc and vhs... the quality is impressive, but not as substantial of a leap in quality and amount of shelf space taken up when compared to the VHS to DVD leap years back...

When the average consumer still cant figure out how to work HD content over an HD tv... I dont see widespread acceptance of it the way dvd has. Digital distribution like others have said, is years down the road as far as being really viable... I like having real copies of things like movies

Spiky

I wouldn't say that til it's been around a bit longer. LD lasted 20 years. And created the concept of home theater in people's minds.

DVD Polizei

Wait 10 years from now and then we'll see.

maxfisher

#1 - #6 are pretty basic, obvious things that have already been stated quite a bit. They're mostly valid points, but the degree to which they propel the success of the format will have to be seen.

#7 - #9 are nonsense. The last three years have seen a long string of Sony fuck-ups and the idea that 'hey, this is going to succeed because it's Sony!' is kind of laughable.

mmconhea

One major point is missed. Probably one of the largest factors. Retailers love DVDs. Bargain prices on people's favorites bring them into stores. That's why so much Sunday ad space is used on on these $7-15 bargain discs. They have an opportunity to add Blu-ray as a backup to DVD sales and an eventual replacement (with hopefully higher price points). They will push Blu-ray hard, and be there to support it to the end.
A streaming service where people don't leave their homes to get movies is of no interest to them. And it wouldn't be wise for them to start selling streaming boxes, so they probably won't.

Also I think streaming is for advanced users. My friends think only geeks watch movies on their computers. I agree. My Xbox is too loud and expensive to run (hard drive space is scarce) to use it for movies. I'm not going to pay for a set top box that enables me to pay for movies I don't get to keep.

If streaming happens, it'll be a sad day for consumers. It won't mean lower prices. It'll mean we pay what we pay now (or more) and we have to front the cost for storage- that is if we get to store it at all. Thats' the way things are headed (Look at the way the gaming industry is headed). And backwards compatabilty? Does anyone here think their libraries of Xbox Arcade titles will work on the next Xbox? Do you think it'll be easy to migrate them if they do? Hmmm... my DVDs work on my Blu-ray player.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi

But now it will be accepted because it's positive.

8. is a joke because the one thing I don't see them doing it putting all the special features from the DVD onto the blu-ray and that wouldn't take that much effort to do.

The worst offender I own, are the Spider-Man movies. The third one isn't as bad but I still have more stuff on my DVD.

The first two movies are just complete jokes.

That's my biggest gripe.

I do like how stores have been giving out the exclusives for both formats more often than before. It's still not 100% of the time but it's better than before when it never happened.

When it comes to movie downloads, I don't see why those are getting compared. It's just a different way to rent movies, not own them.

Gizmo

How many titles does Blu-ray have available vs LaserDisc? A small % of it. It may have succeeded in getting more players into peoples hands (which would not be hard considering the format is similar to the previous sucess DVD in both shape and size) but the players are far cheaper then what LD players retailed for years ago especially taking inflation into account. Then we have the thousands of TV Shows/Movies that won't "improve" by going to Blu-ray and will continue to be DVD (or even VHS) exclusive.

Gizmo

Best Buy and other retailers already sell streaming/VOD boxes. VuDu and AppleTV are two great examples. I agree, retailers want people to buy from THEM and not from an online box, but if something is setup where the box is sold at some store and the retailer receives a certain % of each movie sold/rented on it (pipes dream I'm sure)...

As for streaming is for geeks - the same could be said about owning a collection of movies, buying a sound system etc. This was fairly unheard of 15-20 years ago.

But these topics are useless. BD (and DVD) is here to stay until something else comes along (physical format or downloading) and wipes it out. Do we need to rehash this every few weeks?

jiggawhat

The market has become totally different. The funny thing is when VHS was out, it was a rental market, not many people bought titles. When DVD came out, that changed again, and the market became sell-through. It looks like it's shifting again to a rental market and really that shift began in the last few years as Netflix became a household name. Netflix will be the leader in digital downloads in my mind because it has the infrastructure and is putting their technology into everything.

I don't think BD will ever trounce the sales of DVD because of the shift to renting, but I do see it doing pretty well on high profile day and dates and high profile titles like Star Wars, LOTR, etc.

One thing is for sure, all the studios need to put more effort into putting quality content in BD not some of the crappy DNR'd releases like Warner is putting out.

macnorton

I liked this article...and the author nailed why downloading will not take off. However, if there is an increase in bandwidth (and stability...another key factor) it could work. But we are a ways off from that being a reality.

conehead433

The #1 reason Bluray is doomed to fail: They failed to realize how many people don't have Internet service and/or otherwise don't know how to download firmware to be able to play the latest discs. It's fvcking ridiculous that BD still doesn't have a set standard when HD DVD had one from the beginning. I do have the necessary connection and nowhow to be able to upgrade and I'm already tired of it.

macnorton

You bring up a good point. I can't understand why they don't have like a Microsoft auto update model...not like these updates are huge (I read between 50-250 megs...that is nothing). But that would make sense...

conehead433

You missed part of my point. My parents don't have an Internet connection, nor do they want one. Many people don't have the Internet or are not computer or tech savvy. So would I buy my parents a BD player. No way in hell. I worked as a low voltage electrician including installing home theaters, hanging plasmas, etc. I honestly could not recommend purchasing a Bluray player to anyone. It's not worth the aggravation.

Adam Tyner

To be fair, though, virtually all of the HD DVD players out there were manufactured by Toshiba, and with one company behind the players, consistency is easier to come by. My HD DVD players have both been orders of magnitude flakier than my PlayStation 3, which has only given me one or two problems in a couple of years of obsessive overuse. Toshiba had its share of firmware updates too.

I do agree that a lot more time needs to go into testing and QC, particularly since it seems to be the same couple of studios that are putting out these bad discs time and again.

Qui Gon Jim

I agree...up until you said HD DVD did not have these issues. They did. But it is bullshit, regardless.

I agree with the notion that BD will settle in somewhere between DVD and Laserdisc.