How long until blu-ray is outdated?
 

Most people think 1080p is the best that video will ever be... We'll from what I've heard true HD is around 4500p. So my question is Blu Ray going to be around for at least 10 years or are we likely to see an ultra HD player in a couple of years? I'd like to upgrade my favorite dvds to Blue Ray but that's around 500 and I don't want to spend all of that doe just to have to upgrade yet again a couple years down the road.

Do you really think anyone knows other than those that go by everything a guy a Sony says?

I'd guess less than 10, assuming it even really takes off.

Heh...have no idea. For me, Blu-Ray is it though. I've only got another 200 to convert from DVD... :)

Technology will always be improving. Everything becomes outdated. I don't care though, as long as we don't get into the medium of digital downloads.

What people? Everyone I talk to either has no idea what 480p or 1080p mean or know a lot about HD and know that 4k is what movies are transfered at.

The important thing to know is that the majority still are happy with 480i content upconverted on their HDTVs and the fact that broadcast TV is not going above 1080i anytime soon. That combined with the fact Blu-ray is struggling really gives little reason to worry about the next TVs coming. They will release 2560p TVs soon with no content to play on them. I guess people will convince themselves that 1080p looks better upconverted on them. Who knows when 4K TVs will hit, but if they do and there is real 4K content it will be worth upgrading for as that is probably the ceiling for film transfers to be identical to the masters.

Honestly, it is not worth worrying about. I will say that Blu-ray is a very significant upgrade in detail and especially color over DVD and I will be happy with it for quite a while. 4K if it comes will be a long way off. They will first have to come up with a disc that can hold a 4K transfer.

Yeah, 4k is the next step and it will be quite awhile before that is easily feasible as a home entertainment format.

First 1440p has to come out. i'm not worried about BD fading soon.

I hope soon, the glow of 1080p has worn off. I'm ready for the next level.

480i color television has been the standard since 1967-68. That's 40 years. 1080p should last at least half as long.

4k will come along in just a few year, but it will remain a high-end niche product.

Just you wait for 13,480p baby. That stuff is nuts!

I agree with this whole-heartedly.

Part of the fun of DVDs is the collecting of it. That, and internet connections are a long way off from downloading the amount of stuff you can fit in special editions (not to mention you'd have to have insane amounts of storage). Would you really want to download the 50-ish GB of the LotR extended trilogy, AND the special features? Blarf.

Anyway, to be more on topic, DVD could technically be considered "outdated" right now, and it still sells wonderfully, and will continue to be the standard for some time. I don't see Blu-Ray actually forcing DVD out of the market for some time to come, yet.

Then, you'd have a fair lifespan on Blu-Ray for some time after. 1080p movies look rather fantastic, as it is. I wouldn't worry about having to repurchase your entire collection of BDs any time soon.

How would 4500p even be discernable to the human eye outside of a ridiculously large screen?

Isn't looking and sounding better a legitimate purpose?

5 years at most.

Sorry, I deleted my previous post that quoted you when I was trying to edit it. Anyway...Well, Blu-ray has about 6 times the resolution of DVD. Hope that helps. I haven't paid more than $20 for a title (though I doubt that is the "cost" you are referring to). That price will go down over time.
Unlike DVD, there are no PAL to NTSC conversion issues with Blu-ray and on most titles there is no region coding. As for "deepening and widening the material available," DVD is still doing that and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. If physical media stays around long enough, Blu-ray will take up that mantle as surely as DVD took it from VHS.
Beyond cinema I don't know what audiovisual arts you are referring to, but watching a Blu-ray on a 100" screen is as close as you will get to a true cinematic experience (i.e. film projected in a theater) at home.

How long until blu-ray is outdated? How about how long until SD is outdated? I just read somewhere that most of the population in America hasn't a clue what BD is, let alone ready to adopt it. By the time most people can go Blu, it'll be walking out the door.

That being said, I'm still running a console tv with SD. I'm hoping to get a new tv this fall or early spring then maybe BD next year, though I am NOT replacing my titles. They'll just have to play on the BD player. I might get some titles that would look extravagant, but other than that no.

Just my two cents though.

IMO it would probaby be another 10 years. Even CD's are still around

Wait for downloads. It isn't far off.

Netflix is rumored to be teaming with Xbox for movies right now. They already have a $100 box available for unlimited downloads right now http://www.roku.com/netflixplayer/ (though the content now is not HD but the box is ready for it when Netflix gives the go ahead).

Unless I can get a BR player for less than $200, I have no interest in it. And if one does hit a decent price point, I certainly will not go thru and replace my current dvd collection with more expensive BRs when downloading most anything is around the corner. Waste of money.

Outdated? Really? Do we seriously need that to happen? As long as we are talking about 50 In. HDTV's and below I don't see any point. Blu Ray discs should look amazing (I have a HD-DVD player and will likely purchase a PS3 as my Blu Ray player of choice next week). High Definition is better than anything I have ever experienced or watched via home media ever. I hope it's stays around for a long time.

I maintain that Joe Six Pack has so many computer/internet problems already that downloads are not going to be seriously adopted for a long, long time, and even then, I think the majority of those out there prefer packaged media.

Plus, Joe Six Pack can understand the term "high definition" and if they want it they won't be getting it with downloads.

With the difference between 720p and 1080p so minuscule on screen that is smaller than 40", I doubt that home video market will ever see something better than 1080p. Of course, we've heard about that 2106p TV that Samsung develops now, but I'm not sure it will find a place in someone's home.

4K technology and something like that probably only going to be popular in digital cinema and something of that sort.

And as many other have mentioned, I think at this point the future is going to be a) Video Downloads and b) solid state media, but I have my doubt that it's going to be in higher resolution than 1080p.

112 years, Einsteins.

This is one of the things I don't understand about downloads; Why don't the studios (and music labels) create their own download sites? Cut out the middle men and get all the profits. With everything being digital, why have and/or create a need for places such as Netflix or Blockbusters or even iTunes?

The big push after this step will come from computer oriented uses rather than strictly video, the improvement in video with current high definition is huge - the color array is especially impressive, but there is a limit to how "accurate" you can represent an image on a screen of limited size - which we aren't far off from.

The elimination of PAL and NTSC standards is a big one for me in obtaining foreign productions as is the limiting of coding standards. I was never a fan of purchasing PAL dvds as I could never lend them out, it isn't an issue on these High Def Medias which is a fantastic addition. Though I am curious what this 1080/50 thing that popped up with the [REC] Blu is all aboot.

And it is substantially higher than "moderately better picture", though that is dependent on individual setups (and color blindness, as much of the improvement comes in the form of amazingly vibrant color). The cost will predictively be minimal as time progresses. The revelation for me are the restorations, the ability to see movies older than I am, in pristine condition.

Laserdisc and VHS coexisted peacefully for 22 years; I don't see why DVD and Blu-Ray can't have a similar run.

With broadcast TV staying at 720p/1080i for the foreseeable future, I don't foresee enough demand for higher resolution televisions or media for a major company like Sony or Toshiba to risk launching a new format anytime soon.

Even if the market tips toward downloads, I don't see consumer market resolutions going above 1080p for 12-15 years. I personally prefer physical media and I hope that Blu-ray continues to grow.